05-09-2019, 06:24 PM
(05-09-2019, 05:14 PM)Stuph Wrote: forget about this Hernik, you know how SA works, the more viewers the more money you make and some gus are ready to say BS to get more of it....
Just one point i try to share with him but which he does not accept i that all his tehory about overstated backlog is based on a 2018 report that mentions a 0.5$/subscriber/month, whereas the last Oppenhiemer report mentions turnkey contracts where the reward for Parateum could go up to 20$/subscriber/month.
Quite game changing, isnt it????
Yes, that's certainly an improvement, thanks for that! The backlog problem is no mystery, management itself implicitly acknowledged it when they argued only 75%-80% of backlog will be converted going forward, rather than the 100% they were used to achieve but I don't see that stopping the fun anytime soon.
For backlog to become a barrier to growth the problem has to be enormous, as well as the company unable to strike much in the way of new deals.
I can't see that happening anytime soon (if at all) and even Alex argues it's not going to happen this year, which is why they started harping about cash burn, which I think is likely to decrease significantly because the one-off acquisition related cost will fade, all the synergies will be achieved and there will be considerable operational leverage from not needing more people.
So basically I don't see a short thesis here, even if I share some concerns about the quality of the backlog. I might have caused some confusion, sorry for that but it's my way of dealing with an uncertain and incomplete picture, sometimes it takes groping around in the semi-dark for a while to find firmer footing.
I'm also very sensitive for any signs that there might be serious problems, I've seen what these can do.