Quote:A “calamity” may be coming for markets, potentially in 2023, Jeffrey Gundlach, chief executive officer and chief investment officer of DoubleLine, warned Tuesday on stage at the Exchange ETF conference in Miami. The Treasury market’s yield curve is signaling “trouble ahead,” Gundlach said, referring to the recent inversion of 2-year TMUBMUSD02Y, 2.413% and 10-year yields TMUBMUSD10Y, 2.777%, which historically has preceded a recession.
The setup in the stock market is “very similar” to the one seen in the fourth quarter in 1999, he warned, in a reference to the lead-up to the bursting of the dot-com bubble. Read: Why an inverted yield curve is a bad tool for timing the stock market The S&P 500 has been “massively juiced” by quantitative easing and low rates under central banking policy, according to Gundlach, who said that he favors stocks outside the U.S. “One of the hardest things” in the investment business is “to change after you’ve been right,” he said. While the S&P 500 saw an unusually strong run over the past few years, it’s down so far in 2022 amid heightened concern over the Russia-Ukraine war and expectations for the Federal Reserve to battle soaring inflation in part through interest rate hikes. Gundlach said he expects that European stocks will outperform the U.S., particularly when a recession arrives ‘Calamity' may be coming, stock-market setup similar to 1999: Jeffrey Gundlach - MarketWatch
Quote:A trade rupture between Germany and Russia could put a dent in German manufacturing – one of three global manufacturing centers besides the U.S. and China, S&P Global’s Chief Economist Paul Gruenwald told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia.” Trade between Germany and Russia jumped significantly in 2021 compared to the year before, with the value of goods surging 34.1% to 59.8 billion euros ($65 billion), according to Germany’s Federal Statistical Office. Research and consultancy firm Wood Mackenzie also warned that the global economy could undergo “more permanent changes” with global trade possibly altered by the crisis. A financial shock could be on the cards if there’s a “trade rupture” between Russia and Germany, warned S&P Global’s chief economist on Tuesday.'Trade rupture' between Russia, Germany could cause financial shock: S&P Global