Market comment 2022

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Let’s review:

• Gross domestic product grew at a 3.2% annualized rate last quarter, a sharp bounce back from shrinking in the first half of the year.
  
• Consumer confidence unexpectedly grew in December.
  
• Last month’s jobs report defied analysts’ expectations, with unemployment remaining at almost a half-century low.
  
• And multiple recent inflation reports show prices are starting to cool off.
  

However, these are just ingredients in a murky soup of conflicting “yes, but” headlines. Yes, consumers say they feel lousy about the economy. But a record 196 million Americans went shopping over the Thanksgiving weekend — and those roaring sales numbers weren’t just because inflation has pushed prices higher, but also because people were making more transactions, according to Adobe Analytics. 

Curtis Dubay, chief economist at the US Chamber of Commerce calls this “second-hand pessimism” and says the economy might not be doing as poorly as you think. Yes, inflation at near 40-year highs is biting into family budgets. But Americans are booking air travel and heading to Disney parks in near-record numbers, even with higher park prices. Yes, economists are worried about a recession, but the job market is incredibly tight with more than 10 million open jobs and 1.7 jobs available for anyone who’s searching for one (or looking to job hop).

Why America’s economy remains surprisingly strong – but you don’t realize it