Quote:“We believe that the equity rally is unlikely to get the fundamental confirmation for the next leg higher. Once positioning recovers, Q1 is in our view likely to mark the high point of the market. We think that one should be using the ytd gains to cut equity allocations, and to reduce portfolio beta,” said Kolanovic and the team. They say international equities — China/EM, Japan and Europe — “offer better risk-reward than U.S. equities.” This latest warning adds emphasis to Kolanovic’s assessment last month that the rally’s days were numbered.The peak of this market rally is almost here, says JPMorgan. Time to ditch U.S. stocks, and buy these instead, says Wall Street giant.
Now hold on you say? Wasn’t this the guy who was bullish all of last year, to no great end? In JPMorgan’s defense, they say an underweight position on government bonds and overweight on commodities compensated for 9-month equity overweight last year, helping them edge past the benchmark. Still, Kolanovic might have a lot riding on this bet, as others on Wall Street chime in. Chris Montagu and the team at Citigroup, for example, told clients they see fading bullish momentum for stocks, apart from European banks. What JPM sees hurting this rally is recent weaker economic data and the anticipated weak earnings and guidance from the latest reporting season. “Recent equity inflows are likely running out of steam, while pensions’ overfunded status could drive an increase in their reallocation from equities to bonds this year,” they said.
Quote:Inflation picked up in the first month of the year, defying optimism from investors and officials over a steady move lower seen in recent readings. The Consumer Price Index (CPI) for January showed a 0.5% increase in prices over the past month, an acceleration from the prior reading, government data showed Tuesday. On an annual basis, CPI rose 6.4%. Economists had expected prices to climb at a 6.2% over the year and jump 0.5% month-over-month, per consensus estimates from Bloomberg. New seasonal adjustments released by the BLS on Friday also switched December's initial reading of a 0.1% monthly drop in headline inflation to an increase of 0.1% in the year's final month. On a "core" basis, which strips out the volatile food and energy components of the report, prices climbed 5.6% year-over-year, more than expected, and 0.4% over the prior month. Forecasts called for a 5.5% annual increase and 0.4% monthly rise in the core CPI reading.Inflation rises 0.5% over last month in January, most since October