Quote:“Growth and unemployment rates at these levels are not only a sign of an extraordinary recovery from the previous recession, but also are a sign that this is not your parents’ labor market,” said RSM US chief economist Joe Brusuelas. “Today, we think the natural rate of unemployment is closer to 4%, which reflects a mixture of efficiency gains driven by technology and demographic factors that dampen overall unemployment.”
The efficiency of searching for jobs online and a newfound ability to work at home means that there’s less friction in finding employment than ever before, he said. That may permanently lower unemployment rates. Plus, the mass retirement of baby boomers, slowing of immigration rates and long-term health impacts of Covid have also permanently altered the labor market.
Why it matters: These changes have led many economists to say that the labor market doesn’t matter anymore, said Kathryn Rooney Vera, chief market strategist at StoneX. The gig economy, generational differences, and baby boomer retirement make this “unlike anything we’ve seen,” she said. “You have so much Fed tightening, and the most forecast recession in my lifetime, but consumers have not tightened their belts at all whatsoever.” People clearly feel good right now, said Vera, and when people feel good their habits of consumption don’t change.. Does the Fed have the labor market all wrong?