Stylized facts

[admin]

Stylized facts are facts which are supported by the weight of existing evidence. These are subject to change when new evidence appears (or when one becomes aware of its existence). In case of Pareteum:

Evidence pertaining revenues:

• Grew 101% organically last year, audited
  
• Guided only at 50%+, turned out to be very conservative guidance
  
• Hoving Partners with 12M shares run by ex-insider
  
• Whole sector is growing fast, 100% growth isn't all that strange
  

Evidence pertaining backlog

• Considerable inconsistencies in their own reporting
  
• AVG presentation, guided $84M backlog for 2019, should be considerably more now as backlog has more than doubled since than. This seems inconsistent with their last revenue guidance ($105M-$115M) as much of that ($89.7M per the acquisition filings) is from Artilium and iPass, leaving only $15M-$25M for legacy Pareteum, which sits odd with the $84M backlog.
  
• Management guided $144M in revenues in the iPass acquisition presentation but this was lowered to $105M-$115M in their Q4CC, basically as they moved from 100% conversion to 75%-80% conversion.
  
• The examples of some of the companies that signed contract and are responsible for the backlog as reported by the article from the Oil & Gas Investor Bulletin.
  
• The company raking in $938M in backlog with a tiny sales force. 
  

That is, we think the revenue numbers are real but the backlog numbers are inflated. Whether you agree with the latter is up to you, as is how serious an issue it is.