Brexit

[admin]

That is why a careful empirical study indicates that a move from membership of the European Economic Area to a mere FTA could lead to a huge reduction in the affected trade. In all, UK trade may shrink by up to a quarter in both services and goods. Because of distance and regulatory barriers, agreements with the US, other “Anglosphere countries” and leading emerging countries would not offset this: according to the NIESR’s Monique Ebell, these might increase overall UK trade by only 5 per cent.

Five Brexit challenges as Britain leaps into the unknown

The advantage of the larger economy is even greater when it comes to non-tariff barriers, which often result from differences in regulations and standards among trading countries. In most cases, the smaller country must simply accept the larger one’s rules. Given this, Brexiteers are wrong to claim that the UK, as a net importer, will be in a strong position in trade negotiations with the EU. What counts is relative size, not net trade flows. Multiple studies confirm this, concluding that the UK will bear the lion’s share of the costs of Brexit.

Brexit in a Brave New World by Daniel Gros - Project Syndicate

[admin]

Stephen Crabb, a former work and pension secretary, said that Theresa May urgently needed to outline a new set of values for a post-Brexit immigration system, or the public may face a rude awakening. “For many, a vote for Brexit was indeed a vote to take back control and return to Westminster the full tools to cut immigration,” Crabb said in a article for the Guardian. “The problem is that, set against the popular expectation that Brexit means cutting immigration, there is nothing on the horizon to suggest that achieving any significant reduction is achievable or even desirable.”

Brexiters face rude awakening on immigration, says ex-minister | Politics | The Guardian

Senior lobbyists and politicians from Paris, France believe that 10,000 jobs in the financial sector could migrate to the city from London as a result of Brexit, with as many as 30,000 moving if jobs indirectly related to financial services are included in any count. At a press conference in London on Monday, a panel of delegates from Paris — including the City's vice-mayor Jean-Louis Missika, the president of the Paris region, Valerie Pecresse, and Gerard Mestrallet, the chairman of the lobbyist Paris Europlace — addressed the future of the City of London and the movement of jobs to continental Europe after Brexit.

Paris wants to steal banking jobs from City of London - Business Insider

One of Germany's most senior banking regulators has warned London that it is likely to lose its role as "the gateway to Europe" for vital financial services. Dr Andreas Dombret, executive board member for the German central bank, the Bundesbank, said that even if banking rules were "equivalent" between the UK and the rest of the European Union, that was "miles away from access to the single market".

Germany warns the City over Brexit risk - BBC News

[admin]

Some 8,000 kilometers from London’s busy shopping districts, the economic ripple effects of Brexit are being felt in one of the world’s poorest nations. In Bangladesh, garment makers typically charge in U.S. dollars. For U.K retailers, that means import costs are rising in line with sterling’s 16 percent slump since Britain’s June vote to leave the European Union. Reluctant to raise prices for shoppers, big high street brands are squeezing suppliers instead.

From London Fashion Salons to Bay of Bengal, Brexit Looms Large - Bloomberg

My table gives us a clue about this. It shows goods exports per person to some non-EU countries, taken from World Bank data. You can see from this that Germany exports much more than the UK – more than twice as much person to Japan and China, and more to India and Australia, despite the UK’s historic links with those nations.  This alerts us to an important fact – that it is not membership of the EU that is holding back UK exports. Germany faces the same trade rules that we do, and is doing much better. Exactly why this should be is of course a big question. It’s not just that UK businesses are “fat and lazy” (to use Liam Fox’s expression). It’s because the UK has for decades lagged behind in skills and investment in some key exporting industries.

Stumbling and Mumbling: On Brexit over-optimism

Germany’s finance minister has urged the UK to look to Switzerland when it comes to its post-Brexit relationship with the EU. Wolfgang Schauble suggested the UK should negotiate access to the European single market through a series of bilateral deals in exchange for freedom of movement – but with a proviso to make sure local people are give preferential treatment when applying for jobs.  He told the Swiss newspaper Neue Zurcher Zeitung (NZZ) that he had advised the UK to find a “wise political solution” to Brexit. “Britons should take as an example how cleverly Switzerland has linked national sovereignty and close cooperation with the European Union,” he said.

Germany's finance minister just said what Brexit deal he thinks Theresa May should go for | The Independent

Tony Blair has said it is his "mission" to persuade Britons to "rise up" and change their minds on Brexit. Speaking in the City of London, the former prime minister claimed that people voted in the referendum "without knowledge of the true terms of Brexit". He urged "a way out from the present rush over the cliff's edge". Former Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith said the comments were arrogant and undemocratic but Lib Dem Nick Clegg said he "agreed with every word". Former UKIP leader Nigel Farage said Mr Blair was "yesterday's man" while Downing Street said it was "absolutely committed" to seeing Brexit through.

Tony Blair calls for people to 'rise up' against Brexit - BBC News

[admin]

From the 1960s onwards thousands of young people entered higher education, catering to the first mass cohorts of grammar school children, and then, in the 1990s, furnishing nearly half of under-25s with a degree. But what of the other half? This tacit segregation was laid bare by analysis of how people voted in the 2016 referendum. Statistically at least, if you were born before the era of mass higher education, and held few or no qualifications, you voted to leave. If you were under 40 – the biggest waves of university expansion happened after 1992 – and held a degree, you voted to remain.

Parallel lives: how the Brexit vote revealed Britain's divided culture | Books | The Guardian

[admin]

Leaving the EU without a deal and falling back on WTO rules would mean paying customs duties on British exports to the EU. Guardian calculations put the annual bill at $7.6bn just in tariff costs. Here’s why

How difficult, and how costly, is a hard Brexit? | UK news | The Guardian

[admin]

Fears that Brexit will cause rents to fall could lead to London office values dropping between a quarter and a third, according to Morgan Stanley. If potential property buyers lose confidence in their ability to charge more for vacant space when it becomes available, prices will drop sharply, especially given the new supply of offices under construction, Bart Gysens, an analyst at the bank, wrote in a note to clients Wednesday.

London Office Values Could Fall by a Third, Morgan Stanley Says - Bloomberg

Goldman Sachs will shift jobs away from London while bulking up its European presence by "hundreds of people" as it executes on Brexit contingency plans, the chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs International told CNBC on Tuesday.

Goldman Sachs confirms London jobs will move to Europe in first stage of Brexit reshuffle

The speed with which the emergency services responded to last week’s attack on Westminster was rivalled only by the hard right’s eagerness to blame the horror on migration. I mean, why wait for the evidence? With the same confidence that he had (incorrectly) blamed the Berlin Christmas market atrocity on Angela Merkel’s admission of refugees, Nigel Farage told Fox News: “If you open your door to uncontrolled immigration from Middle Eastern countries you are inviting in terrorism.”

The Brexiteers’ immigration promises are unravelling fast | Matthew d’Ancona | Opinion | The Guardian

The broad claims of the referendum campaign are starting to dissolve into the pixelated reality of policy, practicality and compromise. According to a senior government source, a wonderful irony is now manifesting itself around the cabinet table in the contributions of Liam Fox, David Davis and Boris Johnson: “There’s no doubt that Theresa wants to bring down immigration. But the three main Brexiteers are suddenly becoming more and more vocal about the need to keep the numbers sufficiently high for the needs of the economy. You hear Liam saying: ‘We mustn’t do anything that threatens prosperity.’ It’s becoming more and more clear to them what’s at stake.”

The Brexiteers’ immigration promises are unravelling fast | Matthew d’Ancona | Opinion | The Guardian

[admin]

The U.K. is officially leaving the European Union. While those campaigning for more sovereignty and tighter border controls rejoice, the government's own economic forecasters are warning of tough times ahead. Divorce from the EU will be costly and it could weigh on Britain's economic prospects for years to come. Here is why

Cost of Brexit: U.K. faces more debt, weaker growth and a final EU bill - Mar. 29, 2017

“Europe’s security is more fragile today than at any time since the end of the cold war,” she said, apparently deploying one of the remainers’ strongest arguments: that at a time of global peril, now is not the time to destabilise an institution that has helped maintain the postwar peace. She appeared to warn too that in the age of Donald Trump it was folly for Britain to turn its back on the world’s largest single market. As she wrote to Tusk: “At a time when the growth of global trade is slowing, and there are signs that protectionist instincts are on the rise in many parts of the world, Europe has a responsibility to stand up for free trade in the interest of all our citizens.” She went further. “Perhaps now more than ever the world needs the liberal, democratic values of Europe – values that the UK shares.” Close your eyes and it might have been 1972, with May making the case for Britain joining the European Economic Community.

May wants security, free trade, liberal values: just what we’re throwing away | Jonathan Freedland | Opinion | The Guardian

Theresa May’s tactic is clear: to accuse anyone who dares question her headlong, blindfold charge towards hard Brexit of being democracy deniers. This despite it looking increasingly likely that the result of her reckless, divisive Brexit will be to leave the single market and not reduce immigration – the very opposite of what Brexiteers pitched to the people.

Leavers, beware: Theresa May is offering the exact opposite of what you voted for | Tim Farron | Opinion | The Guardian

Meanwhile Britain powers towards the cliff edge. By triggering article 50, May is giving herself an incredibly tough, self-imposed deadline to agree what could prove the messiest divorce in history. The EU is asking for a reported £50bn; May will apparently offer £3bn. The EU says it won’t discuss a future relationship until this is settled, and unless the deadline can be extended or an interim arrangement struck, Britain will be locked out of the single market without any new trade agreement in place. That agreement will depend on the consent of parliaments (and in some cases, regional parliaments) of 27 member states. It could take years. And that’s if Whitehall has the capacity: some have suggested it needs an additional 30,000 civil servants. So much for a Brexit saving, and £350m a week extra for the NHS, and so much for a government taking back control.

Leavers, beware: Theresa May is offering the exact opposite of what you voted for | Tim Farron | Opinion | The Guardian

[admin]

Angela Merkel has rejected one of Theresa May’s key Brexit demands, insisting negotiations on Britain’s exit from the European Union cannot run in parallel with talks on the future UK-EU relationship. “The negotiations must first clarify how we will disentangle our interlinked relationship,” the German chancellor said in Berlin. “Only when this question is dealt with can we – hopefully soon after – begin talking about our future relationship.”

Angela Merkel rejects one of Theresa May's key Brexit demands | Politics | The Guardian

[admin]

A record number of EU nationals left the NHS last year, renewing fears that Brexit could exacerbate a staffing crisis. The figures, compiled by NHS Digital, prompted medical leaders to call for more reassurances to European workers about their future in the UK. A total of 17,197 staff, including nurses and doctors, left their posts in 2016, compared with 13,321 in 2015 and 11,222 for 11 months in 2014. Even though EU staff numbers rose across the period analysed, experts fear the number of people leaving is the more significant trend.

Record number of EU citizens quit working in NHS last year | Politics | The Guardian

Two fifths of games companies based in the UK are considering relocating out of the country in the wake of Brexit, a survey has found. The primary concern across the industry is over a loss in international talent from EU countries creating a skills shortage which 40% say could make them move some or all of their operations. Ukie, the industry trade body that carried out the research, found 57% of UK games companies employ workers from the EU, and that at those companies EU workers represent an average one third of all employees.

UK games industry: 40% of companies considering relocating after Brexit | Technology | The Guardian

Lloyd's of London will establish a new European base in Brussels to avoid losing business when the UK leaves the EU, according to press reports. The company has not confirmed the decision, but said it would make a statement on Thursday. The insurer has been weighing up different locations on the continent.

Insurer Lloyd's of London 'to open Brussels office', say reports - BBC News

[admin]

The lobby group TheCityUK calculates that financial and related professional services employ more than 7% of the UK workforce, not just in London, and produce nearly 12% of the UK’s total economic output. The City generates a trade surplus of £72bn, which means it sells more services abroad than in the UK.
Every day rumours swirl about which bank – usually an American one – intends to shift hundreds, or thousands, of staff abroad in preparation for Brexit. Forecasts for jobs at risk range from about 30,000, by the Brussels-based Bruegel thinktank, and 232,000, by the London Stock Exchange chief, Xavier Rolet.

Betting the house? How Brexit gamble could bring down the City | UK news | The Guardian