OSH/IPI appraisal used a water drive RF

[Li'loilady]

Further reason to expect the CRP value to be minimal.

so in your opinion, this is JFT pumping the stock?

No, Judeo.  I was initially responding to admin's statement:  "These were quite reputable firms, do we know for a fact that they are wrong basing their estimates on a water drive?"  Just as OSH was motivated to present data and their internal assessments and assumptions that would lead to a lower certification number thereby minimizing their payment to the IPI, so XOM and TOT have the same motivation, IMHO.

Phil's assessment is that E/A is more of a gas depletion drive reservoir.  Stavros reminds us that that is Pet's opinion as well.  A higher percentage of water drive in the calculations reduces the final T count of  commercially viable "recoverable" gas.

I would hope that Phil, not to mention Henry Aldorf (the current president of PAC LNG,) Dave Holland (and Pet??) can present their case for a gas depletion drive to the Yukon on behalf of the dissenters.

In the meantime, I expect the mid July cert. numbers to be low —just like OSH-IPI numbers were shockingly low.  OSH was pleased.  TOT and XOM will be, too.

That's what I was talking about.

Does that make sense, Judeo?

[Li'loilady]

Why hasn't "water drive" ever come up once until two weeks ago? Not one time. Someone please explain that. Its more than odd.

I  think the depletion drive issue has come to the fore as we're trying to make sense of OSH's 6.43 and why GCA dropped from 7.1 to 6.8 after 3 additional wells and demonstrated continuity/communication between well sites.  We are now each getting paid for every fraction of Tcfe so that cert. process has come under our microscope.

[admin]

Why would the other side not squawk?

Not possible to prove 'no water drive' if a water zone is present in exploration phase.  Need production data and well performance.

And, 'other side' has no analogues to disprove water drive as this is an unproduced basin.

Thanks Indo. If the type of reservoir (water drive or gas depletion) can only be established after production is well underway, as you seem to suggest, then it becomes crucially important that we keep the final certification in whatever agreement to sell the company.

Does Mike fight for this when negotiating a deal? So far he's two down..

[jft310]

PM has proposed a second certification which is what Civelli negotiated for his group . Hession realized this might be an issue which is why he included a second certification in the original deal .
Now let's use common sense the GCA estimate after 3 additional wells and extensive testing and positive comments from all involved went down in number . How is that possible ?!What changed ? My post tells you what feet on the ground know happened .
Why were these 2 appraiser's estimates labeled tainted and not to be used again ??
You should know the answer to that one .

[Putncalls]

If this is all true it should be easy to make it a talking point at the banks. Does no one pay any attention to Phil M these days?

[Putncalls]

I don't see anything that confirms that OSH/GCA used water drive in their estimate. If this is such an important factor why wouldn't it be a talking point for Phil and the banks that hold most of the shares?

[jft310]

Puts it is a talking point for PM , and the banks just want to get paid . One can do nothing and get nothing or do what PM is doing and work to get a better deal directly with the buyer . Showing Exxon there is a large block of unhappy shareholders will get their attention and hopefully a better deal what is certainly better than doing nothing .

[Putncalls]

The banks own a LOT of shares! That CPR is potentially worth a lot more than banking fees!!!!! "banks just want to get paid" sounds like a supposition to support an argument?

[jft310]

Puts their a wall between the IBers and the banks funds departments . The IBers want to get paid . Same bank the legal departments and compliance departments set up practice standards for funds .
It's very rare for funds with outside opinions saying you should do this to go against the grain . They historically vote with management and with the recommended outside opinions . If they vote opposite they can be sued and the banks lawyers don't like being sued .
Ask them their personal opinion and they know the true value of Interoil shares but that does not impact the funds vote . Thus the deal gets approved . Side with PM let's see what he can get done .

[jdeo1969]

Further reason to expect the CRP value to be minimal.

so in your opinion, this is JFT pumping the stock?

No, Judeo.  I was initially responding to admin's statement:  "These were quite reputable firms, do we know for a fact that they are wrong basing their estimates on a water drive?"  Just as OSH was motivated to present data and their internal assessments and assumptions that would lead to a lower certification number thereby minimizing their payment to the IPI, so XOM and TOT have the same motivation, IMHO.

Phil's assessment is that E/A is more of a gas depletion drive reservoir.  Stavros reminds us that that is Pet's opinion as well.  A higher percentage of water drive in the calculations reduces the final T count of  commercially viable "recoverable" gas.

I would hope that Phil, not to mention Henry Aldorf (the current president of PAC LNG,) Dave Holland (and Pet??) can present their case for a gas depletion drive to the Yukon on behalf of the dissenters.

In the meantime, I expect the mid July cert. numbers to be low —just like OSH-IPI numbers were shockingly low.  OSH was pleased.  TOT and XOM will be, too.

That's what I was talking about.

Does that make sense, Judeo?

It does. Thanks.