If you vote no, be willing to accept the outcome.

[Putncalls]

Exxon also knows that NG prices in the US are going up while oil production is declining in every part of the world. This is still the bottom of the energy cycle. Selling now is disgusting.

[Palm]

What "cycle" are you referring to Puts? NG prices are going nowhere soon. Production at historic highs as well as storage inventories. Expectations are prices to bump along. Where is Exxon saying they see rising prices?

[Putncalls]

Oil goes boom bust in a sinusoidal fashion NG production in the US is falling. Oil and gas projects have been cancelled and non US non OPEC production decline is accelerating. It is clear to anyone watching that the US sets the price with a supply demand curve and PNG is about the only place that can produce for less. They sold out at the bottom.

[ArtM72]

It's not that simple. There is this big question about recoverable gas. If there isn't 10Tish IOC has no money.

At 10T IOC is loaded with money. At 7 T IOC will have sufficent money to struggle along until the NPV of the near certain to be built Papua LNG rises above zero.

[ArtM72]

What "cycle" are you referring to Puts? NG prices are going nowhere soon. Production at historic highs as well as storage inventories. Expectations are prices to bump along. Where is Exxon saying they see rising prices?

Early 2020s the supply demand imbalance flips.  old news from authoritative sources.Palm.  You know that, but then you've gone to the dark side.

Too bad we have markets where people can make money by helping to burn down their neighbors' houses.

[Putncalls]

That's the world we were born into and out of.

[Palm]

"Anyone" doesn't seem to agree Puts:


"SOURCE: Industrial Info Resources
Industrial Info Resources
August 25, 2016 07:30 ET

Conference Speakers: U.S. Gas Production Expected to Continue Outstripping New Demand, Keeping Prices Low, an Industrial Info News Alert
SUGAR LAND, TX--(Marketwired - Aug 25, 2016) - Written by John Egan for Industrial Info Resources (Sugar Land, Texas) -- U.S. natural gas producers can expect a rocky next five years, as supply growth will continue to outpace demand growth, keeping price increases modest, Rick Allen, director of oil and gas consulting services at S&P Global Platts, a unit of S&P Global Incorporated (NYSE:SPGI) (New York, New York), told an estimated 1,150 attendees at the annual energy conference in Denver sponsored by the Colorado Oil & Gas Association (COGA) (Denver, Colorado) on Tuesday."

http://www.marketwired.com/press-release...153330.htm

[Palm]

What "cycle" are you referring to Puts? NG prices are going nowhere soon. Production at historic highs as well as storage inventories. Expectations are prices to bump along. Where is Exxon saying they see rising prices?

Early 2020s the supply demand imbalance flips.  old news from authoritative sources.Palm.  You know that, but then you've gone to the dark side.

Too bad we have markets where people can make money by helping to burn down their neighbors' houses.

Sorry Art, but see above post. Very current data says gas prices stay quite moderate. Recent reports by IEA state through 2040 NG production will rise 61%. New sources of NG and improved technology are expected to keep prices moderate historically. Please stop with the "Dark Side" crap. Reality is reality; sticking head in sand is where the Dark Side is. Your model is the outdated one.

What are your expectations on how this Exxon buyout proposal will go?

[Putncalls]

Moderate prices are great for demand and PNG has the lowest price. That LNG location has an infinite market. I think XOM pretty much owns IOC and the market says the CRP isn't worth much.

[AU74]

...  If you vote no you better have a bunch of puts to hedge your position.

Why would those voting no need puts any more those voting yes? Both would be in the exact same situation with or without a deal.