Farewell and good luck

[Kaliboo]

After 8 years of being an IOC shareholder, I have sold all of my shares and am moving on.  I have patiently waited for good things to happen with no success.   Before I go, I do have few observations and opinions I would like to share.  Take them for what they're worth.

1. The game has been rigged and the end result is already determined.  The deal will pass the vote and everyone still holding shares will get a measly $45 a share in Exxon shares.   There are nowhere near enough "No" votes to stop it.  If by some freak event, the vote is "No"', I would not be at all surprised if Exxon and Total don't sit back and watch IOC implode.  We are low on cash and paying out $100 million in cancellation fees would not help.

2. The CRP payment is going to be either $0 or less than $5 a share.  The complete failure of Ant-7 and the "updated" GLJ reserve estimates have convinced me that neither Exxon or Total is really interested in a high number - now.  In a couple of years, when it doesn't affect IOC shareholders, a improved number it will  suddenly appear.

3.  I will not be sending "Thank You" cards to Phil.  All his court case did was cost us money.  IOC shareholders are sitting on their shares that are making NOTHING.  If the deal would have closed earlier, we all would had Exxon shares that would have appreciated nearly 10% since then.  If Exxon continues to climb, the loss is even worse.  At least by getting out now, I get a slightly higher sale number and the opportunity to invest in a market that, at least for now, seems to have upward potential.

4. I think the No - dissent vote is going nowhere.   It is difficult to convince someone that an asset I am trying to sell is worth considerably more than anyone has offered to pay recently.    It would be one thing to convince the court if we had a line of suitors ready to buy.  IOC does not.  Even Total was unwilling to step up the game. All that said, if I am right about the CRP payment, what could it hurt?

i wish you all well.  I will miss Pet's thoughtful posts as well as many others.  I will continue to watch with great interest.  And I will sleep better a night!

Cripps- Well stated. Afraid there will not be any more "thoughtful posts" from Pet after today. I sold all of my shares yesterday. I don't have much hope for the shares to increase from here.

1. GCA Resource estimate   6.8 TCFe

2. NSAI Resource estimate 6.06 TCFe

3. Average of the two above estimates 6.43 TCFe which is what OilSearch used with the IPI investors.

4. The New GLJ resource estimate is 7.8 TCFe.

5. Average of the three estimates is 6.9 TCFe

6. Exxon will pay $7.07/TCFe above 6.2 TCFe. (6.9 - 6.20) x$7.07 = $4.95/sh for the CRP

7. By selling yesterday I got $2.50/share for the CRP value. I might have lost $2.45/share by selling too early. Or more if the estimate comes in much higher. At this point I do not expect it to come in much higher, if any, and it could come in lower. A risk I am not willing to take. I think, given the few months that it will take to get the CRP, my money will be better invested elsewhere.

8. I have been wrong about as much as I have been right over the last 6+ years. My worst mistake was believing what IOC told us. I was mainly just interpreting what they said for you. I hope I was not responsible for any of you losing money. It is the end of a bad dream. I have enjoyed writing for you and wish you all the very best.

Pet

Cripps: Thanks for your thoughtful and clear post on what is winding up to be a very sad ending for IOC shareholders.

Pet: Thank you very much for all of the very insightful and astute posts over the years. Your voice has always been one of reason and intelligence and I know that I speak for everyone in saying that our understanidng of what was going on with IOC would not have been half as clear without your incisive posts. I've been contemplating making the same decision as you have just made, and now  my reluctance has been eased by your decision. The best of wishes to you in the coming year and I'll very much miss anticipaitng your insight on events.

Well guys, best of future luck to you all.  Your posts have been well thought out, well written, and highly informative.  Thanks for your efforts.

2126, I take it by your comment above that you are NOT considering hanging around to vote No with Dissent.

I don't understand why anyone would want IOC to go under.  I can think of a CEO and BOD I'd like to see in prison somewhere, but I wouldn't want anyone to lose money by the company going under.  Companies are not at fault.  It's the people that run them that are the bad actors.  They need to be punished, but it appears there are no lawmen chasing them.

I'm still in at this point.  I don't think there any rabbits left to pull out of the hat.  Phil has played his cards and IOC and XOM have played theirs.  It will soon be time for the vote and for the court to rule all over again.  Is this going to be de ja vu all over again with Phil suing and appealing again?