Heres a scenario

[Petrovale]

Nothing wrong, good time for SD or BO.
IOC to giddy up, put money where big mouth is...

[Getitrt2]

The Blair Price article must have some truth to it. One Analyst thinks this is whats going on. The PNG govt will buy 50% of PRL 15 from IOC. They own 22.5% already remember or buy an additional 27.5%. The rumored price is $2-3 to IOC for this 50% interest. Then the PNG govt will mark up the NG and sell some to Exxon at $4-6 per mcf and the PNG govt has some cash in the marked up price.They the PNG govt can keep some of the NG for domestic operations. The drilling partners still own with Civelli's 20% @22% and 18% will be clawed back to IOC after this transaction. They will get bought out by IOC but not at $2-3 but less.. And IOC will have the cash to develop Triceratops and drill ahead . See EWC at T-2. And someone else developing E/A besides IOC. Best guess today. Could hear more about this next several weeks. If the govt is the buyer they don't need NEC approval huh.

See Tree's buy out ideas in a seperate post.

I don't see any reason at all to say the "article must have some truth to it", especially since the Company has indicated it does not.  I think all this is raw speculation without any basis in fact or logic.

[Ass0ciatedPress]

I'd have to agree with Getit here. According to JFT managment denied any truth in Blair's piece whereas they were more than willing to confirm Colin's quotes about the two supermajors a week earlier.

I think we just continue to be in this waiting period, as frustrating as it may be. The most difficult aspect is that we are approaching almost a year now since the IBs were hired and we really have nothing to show for it.

It would be nice if management could provide some sort of update without waiting towards the Q3 earnings call. Especially with most recent articles/publications are quoting Phil with everything happening by year end.

We've been waiting for an announcement for a while and there doesn't appear to be much clarity in the matter.

Just my thoughts.

[Getitrt2]

Those "year end" references, which actually were referring to a PNG conference in early December, arise from comments by the PM about a lot more than PA approval and partner selection. The Company is saying they expect PA approval "any day" and partner selection in the very near future shortly after that.

[Palm]

Agree Getit, near term (within next 2-3 weeks) I think we get NEC PA approval. Partner wrap-up and SD any time after that but by mid-Nov. Final approvals/FID, Gas Agreement, PDL, before gov holiday break.

[Ass0ciatedPress]

Thank you both for the clarification.

[ArtM72]

My bet is almost the entire package gets announced together...selldown, operator, takeoffs, design approach and NEC pre-approval. There will be some upfront money required for both PNG and IOC.

I have to take my hat off to those with scenarios containing all the machinations, but there's enough complexity inherent in the overall deal to make the competing programs plenty difficult for PNG to evaluate without adding confusion for its own sake.

Duma being in trouble of course helps no one's timing.

[Bincbanker]

"It" whatever that is is going to happen very very soon and all at once , I see as I posted earlier a Machine gun fire in events .

I will not sell at first huge spike , this will be the start.
Price will matter but the mere fact they monetize will eventually jump start huge offtake orders (China too).

I see a scenario possible with a modest number (2 TO 2,40) INITIALLY, followed by so much offtakes that we will pass 165 very fast (split adjusted). It will be like a Lottery with a monthly prize.

Good Luck

[lindymc]

why so many shares short if IOC doesn't get screwed? IOC could get extensions on all png property leased for a sweet heart deal that were all disscusing. Then Shell takes out an option on Interoil for their long term leases. the option gives IOC some upfront money to drill prospects. If dry Shell walks away if wet Shell excercises at Phils price.

[Bincbanker]

RDS can obtain a huge part of IOC thru Petromin , so that looks like a given with Petromin appointing Shell as preferred operator. Shell has not signed a NDA with IOC but has all the info it needs thru Petromin and they are now in a position to buy at will.

In one shape or form Shell will be a partner and I doubt it will be a junior role
We are all focused on E/A but a deal including T could be in the cards as well