Personal opinion

[jft310]

given the news today with a report back date to PNG PM by EOM, the SD with a major happens before the end of this month. This makes PNG's price a direct comparision to the chosen partner. I don't buy that management doesn't know who the partner will be. I'll bet there's a scramble going on by bidders as I type this.

Using PRE as a baseline is apples to oranges since it's T2 V E/A. IOC will use E/A partner numbers for PNG additional %.

Tick tick tick shorty.

Duma stated what as regards Triceratops and E/A. ?? Didn't he say that Triceratops would feed E/A LNG ???That would make the PRE deal a commercial deal. Will they use that price or the LNG partner sell down price? Exxon received over $2.20 per mcf several years ago for a very expensive plant . If I were IOC I would point fingers at Exxon and Gorgon and sell the EWC idea to start because of earlier monetization and a cap on costs bourne by EWC. Thats a HUGE selling point. Not sure ask Exxon/OSH .the PNG govt abour cost over runs. I was told to model an LNG sell down price in the $2-3 range. Use Sam Tibbs model for a look see.

A very large IPI partner thinks its EWC, delivery of EWC modules in Jan 2013 and ground breaking for the LNG plant 1st quarter of 2013. With all the work IOC has done first LNG in 2015. Henry A has always said we are proceeding as if we had approval . Like all things IOC this to can change. This makes great common sense for all. O'Neil further affirmed when he said get started now. No one can be as far along as is EWC and Mitsui. They have been FEED ready since Dec 2011. I think we know more soon.

[Palm]

JFT, good comments. Duma's (as well as Petromin's) main beef with IOC it their size per recent comments. Don't blame them for being concerned with that; this is why the government has the international operator requirement. They need to be sure the upstream and LNG plant are properly developed and the project gets up and running on time and on budget. Similar concerns with an EWC. IOC has proven with the refinery and distribution it wants to be a LT player in PNG. The next step is a big one. PNG is supportive but not dumb. So the right configuration is crucial as well as the right partners. IOC has proven they can bring the right players to the table. And with on-budget Aldorf on board that helps greatly.

By not being part of the first plant they can watch to see if IOC can bring it in on time and on budget and have it operating correctly. EWC may be the best bet for that and if it all works PNG can join in the 2nd 4mmpta EWC plant or go their own way. I would bet Indon EWC plant will be watched very closely.