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'Thylacine-2' pid='23200' datel Wrote:An alternate explanation of the recertification might be deduced from the information given in the PR. 1) IOC is selling an interest in PRL 15 to XOM. 2) There will be staged payments, before and after production. We know that IOC believes there is a lot more hydrocarbons in PRL 15 than has been certified up to this point. It's a safe bet that XOM, being a conservative super major, is only willing to pay for what's been certified. To get together on a deal, there will be additional delineation wells drilled, followed by recertification, and one of the staged payments will be based on the recertified numbers. (No doubt there will still be hydrocarbons in PRL 15 which aren't in the count.) One schedule of payments that seems reasonable is one payment up front, another payment after recertification, and additional payments after production.
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Explanation of the role of the recertification process....
Exxon will own a percentage of PRL 15 (not just E/A) post transaction. Exxon is buying 4.6Ts from InterOil and its partners. The recertification process will be done AFTER the deal is finalized. The recertification process (delineation wells) will be used to assess and confirm the TOTAL amount of gas and liquids in E/A. For example, if the additional delineation well data leads to a conclusion of 10 Tcfe in E/A, then Exxon would own 46% (4.6Ts/10 Tcfe) of PRL 15. Hence, the recertification process is only being used to determine the percentage ownership Exxon will have of PRL 15 after buying 4.6Ts.
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'doublebagger448' pid='23203' dateline='<a href="tel:1369693 Wrote:Explanation of the role of the recertification process.... Exxon will own a percentage of PRL 15 (not just E/A) post transaction. Exxon is buying 4.6Ts from InterOil and its partners. The recertification process will be done AFTER the deal is finalized. The recertification process (delineation wells) will be used to assess and confirm the TOTAL amount of gas and liquids in E/A. For example, if the additional delineation well data leads to a conclusion of 10 Tcfe in E/A, then Exxon would own 46% (4.6Ts/10 Tcfe) of PRL 15. Hence, the recertification process is only being used to determine the percentage ownership Exxon will have of PRL 15 after buying 4.6Ts.
i agree with this and this was my initial take Friday. It is curious this comes before the rest of the deal. Probably XOM needed/wanted guarantees to that 4.6 ts and hence the % specification, but what about the rest of the deal? If this piece is set why not the rest? Curious but appreciate everyone's input.
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Yes, interesting this, and the appraisal won't be done after E/A, there are three other prospects in PRL15..
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Agreed so %s matter. All good but just dying to know, as we all are...
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The correct word is "redetermination"...not sure why IOC used recertification..but I think you are on to something here..makes good sense. Reserves estimation leads to redetermination which is the process by which companies can reset ownership interests depending on how things turn out
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05-28-2013, 09:46 AM
(This post was last modified: 05-28-2013, 09:49 AM by ArtM72.)
FWIW which is nothing, I continue to think O'Neill jumped the gun and in the necessary response something less than full clarity was forced from IOC. There are a number of interpretations of the need for additional wells which include but are certainly not limited to:
1, XOM doesn't believe there is much if any gas, or
2. Identifying the percentage x TCF would amount to or, alternatively, how many TCF XOM gets for buying y% or
3. Whether there is enough gas to support 2, 4, 6 or 8 mtpa at Gulf LNG given the first x TCF was to go to PNG LNG or
4. whether 2x was really available or
5. providing better identification, location and quantification of condensates from existing wells.
Any of the above reasons would also coordinate with a really good reason to drill a couple more wells...that being they need more than 4 or 5 holes in the ground to efficiently extract the gas and condensate. I don't believe there was anything in the press release that stated these additional wells were in the interest of XOM or IOC. For all we know this was a condition extracted from XOM by IOC and not the other way around.
BTW, in the spirit of full disclosure, #1 above was the reason put forth by US2U001 over at IV. I can't take credit for it :-)
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And Exxon says this
05/24/2013
BRISBANE | Mon May 27, 2013 4:36am BST
May 27 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil's talks with Interoil to develop the Elk and Antelope fields could lead to an expansion of its $19 billion Papua New Guinea liquefied natural gas (PNG LNG) project, an Exxon executive said on Monday.
The company did not have a timeline for when a deal could be finalised, but Mark Nolan, Exxon Mobil vice president for development in the Middle East and Africa, signaled it may be soon.
"The expansion opportunities look attractive to us, so I wouldn't expect we'd wait too long," Nolan said, speaking to reporters at an industry conference."
Yes, please.
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'ArtM72' pid='23210' dateline='<a href="tel:1369698 Wrote:FWIW which is nothing, I continue to think O'Neill jumped the gun and in the necessary response something less than full clarity was forced from IOC. There are a number of interpretations of the need for additional wells which include but are certainly not limited to: 1, XOM doesn't believe there is much if any gas, or 2. Identifying the percentage x TCF would amount to or, alternatively, how many TCF XOM gets for buying y% or 3. Whether there is enough gas to support 2, 4, 6 or 8 mtpa at Gulf LNG given the first x TCF was to go to PNG LNG or 4. whether 2x was really available or 5. providing better identification, location and quantification of condensates from existing wells. Any of the above reasons would also coordinate with a really good reason to drill a couple more wells...that being they need more than 4 or 5 holes in the ground to efficiently extract the gas and condensate. I don't believe there was anything in the press release that stated these additional wells were in the interest of XOM or IOC. For all we know this was a condition extracted from XOM by IOC and not the other way around. BTW, in the spirit of full disclosure, #1 above was the reason put forth by US2U001 over at IV. I can't take credit for it :-)
FWIW, fairly certain pr was "triggered" not forced. Still digging though. Think redetermination is correct terminology notrecertification. XOM would not be in the discussion if there serious doubt about resources. IMO, XOM wants a certain # of tcfs and the question is what % of prl 15 ate those tcfs?
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[quote='jft310' pid='23212' dateline='1369699569'] And Exxon says this 05/24/2013 BRISBANE | Mon May 27, 2013 4:36am BST May 27 (Reuters) - Exxon Mobil's talks with Interoil to develop the Elk and Antelope fields could lead to an expansion of its $19 billion Papua New Guinea liquefied natural gas (PNG LNG) project, an Exxon executive said on Monday. The company did not have a timeline for when a deal could be finalised, but Mark Nolan, Exxon Mobil vice president for development in the Middle East and Africa, signaled it may be soon. "The expansion opportunities look attractive to us, so I wouldn't expect we'd wait too long," Nolan said, speaking to reporters at an industry conference." Yes, please. [/quo
The quote from Nolan bothers me. Why would Exxon make such a quote? The only reason that I can think of is they are as concerned about the drop in stock price on Friday as everyone else is. Is Exxon concerned about a take over? That is the only reason that I can come up with such a quote, because I will be amazed if IOC is not up big on Monday with this quote. I know I'm adding another 100 shares tomorrow.
Good luck longs.
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