Taking a Step Back to Look at InterOil Objectively

[efi426hemi]

LOL, Getitrt2, just read your post and either great minds think alike or simple minds seldom differ.

[ebster123]

Efi, while I would not planon buying that waterfront villa and the rest that goes with it, what do you think is a fair increase in PPS when T2 shows itself with this current drilling? Also, how long will it take to get there? I ask because I have both stock and calls. I wonder more for the calls. The stock I plan to ride the wave with. Thanks!!

[SupaSage2003]

Hey Getitrt2. Yes, you are correct. I made a typo. It should read "Applying a valuation of $0.60 per mcf would imply a stock price of $99 per share for InterOil. (Applying a $1.50 per mcf and $2.00 per mcf valuation would result in a stock price of $245 and $325 per share, respectively." Thanks for pointing that out!

[SupaSage2003]

Hey Getitrt2 and Efi. Thanks for the corrections! I should have been more careful in they way I wrote it. What I was trying to get at was that T-2, if successful, could eventually lead to more drilling in that field and a much larger resource estimate, which would result in some pretty mind-boggling stock target prices.

[efi426hemi]

Hi Ebster,

Unfortunately you ask an impossible question, lol. Before I give my answer, please note that this is in my opinion only and please do your own research. Now I believe we can take some educated guesses based on past history, so lets take a look there.

Antelope 1
* - Back in 2008 we had the market crash and IOC was sitting at $10.50 pps.
* - Then starting Dec 31st we had our first Ant 1 show of gas.
* - This triggered a bull run that lasted until Jun 5 and took our pps to 37.
* - We then got a 33% pullback to 24.75 by Jun 26th.
* - So in 5 months we had a max increase of 26.50 which settled to 14.25 gain.

Antelope 2
* - Then on Oct 14 2009 we had confirmation of gas at A2.
* - Our pps at on Oct 1st was 38.53
* - The A2 find sparked a exceptional bull run that peaked on Jan 8 at 83.63
* - We then had our bear 30% pullback to 59.11 by Jan 29.
* - So in 3 months we had a max increase of 45 which settled into a 20.58 gain.

Triceratops 2
* - Today our PPS sits at 64.89.
* - If drilling continues to go well, we should hear of first gas around Feb 27 (based upon Pet's always brilliant posts: http://shareholdersunite.com/forums/topi...#post-7518)
* - Then a WHOLE LOT OF ASSUMPTIONS come into play, but lets hope that the well hits gas and flows as good as Ant1 and Ant2 and supports the GLA report of 4.5 Tcf.
* - This should spark a nice pps run and with a small pullback as a new support level over the next 3-5 months.
* - So I would make a wild ass guess of a run to 100 by June with a pullback to 86.30 by July.

Of course this is all for T2 only. If you take into account all the excellent points made by SupaSage, hopefully ones that come to fruition, we could potentially see the biggest year in IOC's PPS history. With that being said, timing IOC has always been impossible.

Health and Happiness, fwiw, and PDYOR,
hemi

[ebster123]

Hemi, thanks very much for you assessment. I agree there will be a step up before a drop back then settle before another advance. It will be interesting to see if shorts come in
again for another round of bashing.

[Petrovale]

Efi writes:
*So I would make a wild ass guess of a run to 100 by June with a pullback to 86.30 by July.

Depending on the low point of the current consolidation, a positive reversal is being formed with a fair value target price of $89.10.