Exxon not interested in IOC gas

[sydbod]

will2bgreat, from past experience it has always been good news for IOC in the past, but please remember this is just a probability event for now. I can still very easily get egg on my face for mentioning it.

[Putncalls]

Building a pipeline between IOC and XOM is a small effort relative to a new LNG plant.
IOC would not have to wait until E/A gas becomes XOM LNG before they get paid.
Buying IOC NG may be cheap compared to the cost of drilling.
Two bidders for the NG is better than one.
XOM is no longer an E/P company.

[Palm]

It's also interesting Will2 that most people here will post things that they think have such a high probability (75%) of affecting IOC. You put it out there and let people decide themselves whether to value the info or not ("use or flush"). However for whatever reason syd uses a thread tag stating not that EA gas has been mentioned by Exxon, but "IOC gas". Then that he and at least another know something that 75% will occur around the 28th or within 10 days, but then instead of stating what it is, he says he's going to be gone for 10 days. Probably wishes he could tell everyone, but just can't. Must be such good/positive info that he doesn't want people rushing out to buy IOC tomorrow and then have the 25% come true and there be upset people. Great isn't it?

[sydbod]

Palm, it is not that I cant tell people what is going on, it is just that I dont feel it is appropriate for me to talk more about it (I don't want to look like a total fool should it not eventuate)). I want to stress that people should NEVER make an investment decision on what they hear on a forum, and especially NOT from what they hear from me. There is a true reason for those dates and why I suspect there will be news about IOC. As I said, I believe there is a high probability for that time slot, and the 75% probability is the true value so far from my experience. Let us leave it as that and should it be wrong, then feel free to have a laugh about it at my expense, after all I will should it be a fail. It is just an interesting date band to look at.

[Palm]

Good gawd Syd, we have all looked like fools at some point. This is a forum to discuss ideas and throw things out and see what sticks. It's obviously potentially bad news you have come across, however you obtained it. If you'd said it would damage sources or something to that effect, you might have had a reason. But to never intend to disclose it, then say you have something with 75% chance of happening and say you won't disclose because you don't look like a fool...... Give us a break. It would be much better that in these instances you say NOTHING. What could be your purpose in doing this?

[sydbod]

Palm, it is not all that dramatic. I don't know how to rationally explain it, as it is just based on an observation that produced results on the last 3 occasions that I observed it. 3 out of 4 observations gave the 75% number and if this time it produces results, then it will be 4 out of 4. It is a sort of thing like some baseball players always wearing their lucky underpants when they play. That is why I keep stressing that should there be no results this time, then I will laugh at myself just the same as the rest of the forum members. Please don't over analyse what I post as sometimes things are not meant to be taken too seriously.
Anyway, I am gone in a few hours so the best of luck to all over the next number of days.

[ebster123]

Syd, I would like to know what you are referring to and why but understand your stance. I would rather you state it the way you did (with caution but hopeful) then to present it as pseudo fact. Time will tell.... Safe travels!

[kommonsents]

If it produced results in 3 out of 3 occasions, that is 100% and if it happens this time, the 4th occasion, it will still be 100%. Neither example produce 75%.

Personally, if one can't/won't post information that can be evaluated and investigated, perhaps they should post nothing.

Loose numbers and loose information = little to nothing, IMHO.

[Palm]

Agree kommon

[Getitrt2]

Good find Syd. Must be the trip to Paris has been fruitful and the picture has cleared. Not much has changed as this addresses EA but it sounds like it's possible a decision has been made to move ahead as planned in the Gulf.

Palm, I doubt this Exxon comment arises from any new "clearing" of the picture or "decision".  IOC and Total are simply continuing to pursue the  LNG project "as planned" as they have for months, with the outlook and situation the same as I have been describing and predicting for months as most likely by far, while being strongly criticized, and even condemned as blind and stubbornly incompetent by certain parties like JFT.  That "decision" was made months ago by IOC and Total and has not changed.  Probably the only things that could have changed it were a dispute win and set aside of the Total SPA by OSH, an unlawful or unwise intervention by PNG, or an offer IOC AND Total could not refuse from Exxon, all of which I considered extremely unlikely.  If you are talking about moving ahead with the plant itself "in the Gulf" as opposed to a site near Port Moresby, I doubt that decision has been made yet and think would come with the BOD and FEED process.  I would say the next potential decision point is probably as they complete the PRL 15 appraisal process, which I would say could affect how many trains to plan for, and beyond that the final FID decision process.  Maybe there's been a "decision" now by OSH resolving the dispute, but that would probably be a news item;  and that would simply mean there is no change related to that to the decision they have already made as they proceed "as planned" on the LNG project.