OIL Futures taking a bath.

[admin]

Whether he's right or not has nothing to do with it. Apart from not giving any rationale for these statements, what long holds and expouses the following opinions:

1) Good news doesn't matter
2) The stock is always going lower.

And when confronted by questions about this cognitive dissonance, he accuses the questioner of being on the IOC payroll.

I've seen that too many times before, but let each come to their own conclusions.

[Nolan]

I feel the need to reply.

Being right does matter or we become like the "insider" posters here who are never right.

My rationale is:
1) Good news has not mattered with this stock. Check the performance of this stock after every press release including the Total fiasco.
2) The stock does always go lower.
3) I did say Tuesday's press release was positive news when others were critical. I did question whether we go to 57 or 52 first.
4) This stock does not follow any indicator higher. Oil prices at $110 don't matter. The largest bull market in history doesn't matter. New management hasn't mattered yes. Monetizing the asset will, but when is that going to happen?

Credibility needs to be established before we go forward.

[admin]

Fine Nolan.

What I simply ask is: what long thinks his stock always goes lower, and good news will never matter.

Why on earth would anybody want to be long in a stock holding these beliefs about it?

I simply think there is another word for a holder of such beliefs, and accusing me of being on the IOC pay roll when I confront you with this dissonance doesn't really help a great deal convincing me I'm wrong.

[freddiekingman]

[quote='Nolan' pid='50364' dateline='1412262536'] I feel the need to reply. Being right does matter or we become like the "insider" posters here who are never right. My rationale is: 1) Good news has not mattered with this stock. Check the performance of this stock after every press release including the Total fiasco. 2) The stock does always go lower. 3) I did say Tuesday's press release was positive news when others were critical. I did question whether we go to 57 or 52 first. 4) This stock does not follow any indicator higher. Oil prices at $110 don't matter. The largest bull market in history doesn't matter. New management hasn't mattered yes. Monetizing the asset will, but when is that going to happen? Credibility needs to be established before we go forward. [/quote

good post..tanx!

[mikesioc]

IOC does seem to contradict every perceived catalyst by going down as Hession has brought an incredible ability to deliver news that at best falls flat and usually causes a sell off. The reason for being long at this point has been stated and is gradually being admitted by an increasing number here: buyout. With several IB's noting IOC as a takeover target it won't be long now. UBS still restricted.

[admin]

There are quite a few reason for a disappointing share price:

• Lower per Mcf metrics from the Total deal than was expected by many
• The lack of drilling results
• Uncertainty about the OilSearch arbitration case
• Residual uncertainty about the size of Elk/Antelope
• The fall in the oil price

If and when these things are resolved, there is no reason to assume that IOC shares would keep on trading far from their fundamental value forever.

Why would it?

Take-over as a means for quick relieve doesn't strike me as a good idea when there is every chance of creating much more value going forward.

Those who seek quick relief have another solution..

[jft310]

Admin nailed it . Even Hession stated "investors just need to be patient." Stop staring at a screen daily.
If GLJ and Knowledge Reservoir are right we collect over $3.5 billion in total next year.
Bernstein and CSFB both are confidant we get a 2 train LNG plant. These firms firms know way more than arm chair quarterbacks who speak with emotion not reason.

[SamAdams]

As I've pointed out before, what's missing is credibility with the large pools of institutional investors.  Yes we have a few, but they can't and haven't moved the stock. MH and team were suppossed to bring credibility and haven't, for all the reasons mentioned above.  Bernstein picking up coverage was impressive, I agree with that.  That's the first.step.  Once and analyst picks up coverage, how that message is brought to fund managers and energy analysts is critically important.  If the analyst is good, like Beverige is, it helps.  But in many cases the insitutional sales guys are the ones to make the calls to the PMs and analysts to back up the research call.  There are many sales guys at a number of sell side shops who view this skeptically still and a bit tainted.  Many haven't done all the work, but when they look at the huge price drop post Total deal they walk away.  That happens more than you would think.  So we could get another 3-4 firms pick up coverage, but unless the guys on the sales desks believe in the story, many PMs and analysts won't hear the story.  That's how things get filtered.  These relationships run deep and many won't jeopardize that for a stock call they view as risky.  I was bit surprised to see HoHos back on the MB as I'm not sure what warrants that.  Stocks go up on positive surprises and we haven't had one of those in awhile.  Simply meeting self imposed deadlines with slightlly positive to neutral news does not make a stock go up.  With out positive news from the exploration program all eyes are on the cert wells and let's hope these execution issues don't leak over into those.

[admin]

Hard to disagree, Sam. As someone put it, credibility needs to be established, and the drilling situation certainly hasn't helped in that dept.

But one discovery and things will look quite different. There are simply a number of 'outstanding issues' which I listed above that are holding us back here.

A take-over only becomes an option if there are good reasons to assume these issues can be better solved by others. I think we're still far from arriving at that conclusion, if we ever get there in the first place.

[jdeo1969]

Admin nailed it . Even Hession stated "investors just need to be patient." Stop staring at a screen daily. If GLJ and Knowledge Reservoir are right we collect over $3.5 billion in total next year. Bernstein and CSFB both are confidant we get a 2 train LNG plant. These firms firms know way more than arm chair quarterbacks who speak with emotion not reason.

With all due respect JFT, of course Hession is going to say that.  His performance REATIVE TO THE PPS when he took over is absolutely absymal.  That is an irrefutable fact.  He has been on this ride for a year and a half roughly.  Some of us have been on board for 5 or more years.  WHat do you think hession will say?  "Sorry about the stock being down 50% since I took the reigns."  No, he won;t say that and he shouldn;t, but to tell shareholders which are in some way buoying this company by holding through disappointment after disappointment to quit looking at your screen is not the best thing to say.  how many road shows?  The stock buyback program?  He has failed at delivering value to this point.  When that changes I will gladly pat him on the back and send him chocolates.  until then, I continue to be critical like many here as I have lost a boatload on this investment, like many others here.  Prior to Hession, this wasn;t supposed to be a wait for the payoff investment, and unfortunately many of us have now had to change our timeline along with MH.  And yes, I understand the idea that why not sell and move on?  Well, that is on me and anyone else who keeps drinking the kool aid that the payoff is around the corner.  Am I holding?  Yes.  For how long I do not know.  I have believed in the asset for years, and the manipulation of this stock is as consistent as the sun rising and setting.  Fluff and spin and always taking the positive tack are a bit tiresome because it isn;t all good news.  WIll the stock go up?  Yes I believe it will, but anyone who is wanting a sale of the company (like myself) should not be shunned or belittled for their lack of forward thinking and wanting to realize future results that are at this point unknown.

Good luck IOC shareholders

Jdeo