Time for a new share buyback !?!?

[admin]

I do not belive Chandler is a "margin" player. IOC's collapse is NOT explained by the energy collapse as it is not falling in line with it. Call it what you will, something is up.

Well, perhaps, but certainly not necessarily so:

• We know Chandler, the biggest holder, is selling
• We don't know whether he's done
• So this likely leads to at least some people trying to get out ahead of him

But you could have a point as we also don't really know why he's selling, but what is the supposed bad news that could cause it. We know Ant4 intersected payzone pretty much were it was expected, reducing the likelihood of well disappointment. There is the arbitrage, but even Goldman argues that if IOC loses it will actually be good (faster to market, lower cost).

What else? Total getting out? Where else are they going to go? Can't rule it out, but it seems rather unlikely to me.

[Putncalls]

Delay in payment date? Wall Street does believe in "show me the money"?

[CAC]

[quote='cybersssss' pid='54083' dateline='1421252066'] I do not belive Chandler is a "margin" player. IOC's collapse is NOT explained by the energy collapse as it is not falling in line with it. Call it what you will, something is up.

Well, perhaps, but certainly not necessarily so:

• We know Chandler, the biggest holder, is selling
• We don't know whether he's done
• So this likely leads to at least some people trying to get out ahead of him

But you could have a point as we also don't really know why he's selling, but what is the supposed bad news that could cause it. We know Ant4 intersected payzone pretty much were it was expected, reducing the likelihood of well disappointment. There is the arbitrage, but even Goldman argues that if IOC loses it will actually be good (faster to market, lower cost).

What else? Total getting out? Where else are they going to go? Can't rule it out, but it seems rather unlikely to me.

******

I know negative speculation is frowned upon, but since you asked a direct question, I'll answer.  If there is an explainable reason at all, I would think it's less likely that it is "well-related" or "arbitration-related"...and more likely that someone thinks Total might "table" the plans for a new plant until oil prices rebound.

[jdeo1969]

I do not belive Chandler is a "margin" player. IOC's collapse is NOT explained by the energy collapse as it is not falling in line with it. Call it what you will, something is up.

Well, perhaps, but certainly not necessarily so:

• We know Chandler, the biggest holder, is selling
• We don't know whether he's done
• So this likely leads to at least some people trying to get out ahead of him

But you could have a point as we also don't really know why he's selling, but what is the supposed bad news that could cause it. We know Ant4 intersected payzone pretty much were it was expected, reducing the likelihood of well disappointment. There is the arbitrage, but even Goldman argues that if IOC loses it will actually be good (faster to market, lower cost).

What else? Total getting out? Where else are they going to go? Can't rule it out, but it seems rather unlikely to me.

I said this 6 to 7 months ago and was mocked.

[admin]

["I said this 6 to 7 months ago and was mocked."]

Not by me, I argued even way before Total came into the picture that Exxon would be able to pay the most and be able to execute the fastest, it's simple economics.

There is a difference between "are able to" and "will" though..

[admin]

["I know negative speculation is frowned upon, but since you asked a direct question, I'll answer. If there is an explainable reason at all, I would think it's less likely that it is "well-related" or "arbitration-related"...and more likely that someone thinks Total might "table" the plans for a new plant until oil prices rebound."]

No problem with that as I actually mentioned it myself already, but it doesn't seem probable to me. LNG demand is still there and a lot of more expensive projects face more urgent questions about their economic viability.

What is true is that the project could be less profitable if the energy price slump continues, but it has to continue for a really long term in order to achieve that effect.

However, market perceptions could simply be: low energy prices lead to more uncertainty over projects viability, hence sell-off.

[CAC]

I know negative speculation is frowned upon, but since you asked a direct question, I'll answer. If there is an explainable reason at all, I would think it's less likely that it is "well-related" or "arbitration-related"...and more likely that someone thinks Total might "table" the plans for a new plant until oil prices rebound."]

******

No problem with that as I actually mentioned it myself already, but it doesn't seem probable to me. LNG demand is still there and a lot of more expensive projects face more urgent questions about their economic viability. What is true is that the project could be less profitable if the energy price slump continues, but it has to continue for a really long term in order to achieve that effect. However, market perceptions could simply be: low energy prices lead to more uncertainty over projects viability, hence sell-off.

******

That makes sense, but the fact that other companies are "worse off" (or less likely to proceed with their projects) doesn't necessarily increase IOC's chances of proceeding.  It could be that all of them get put on hold.  The best team to miss the playoffs still misses the playoffs.  That being said, I assume TOT has to pay us for the gas even if no plant is built so they must have a back-up plan in mind to make it profitable.  I assume that would involve selling to XOM...unless of course XOM decides they want to wait on a third train too.  It's all speculation.  I am just searching for some answer that sounds more plausible to me than "market fluctuations" or "short manipulation".

[jdeo1969]

I know negative speculation is frowned upon, but since you asked a direct question, I'll answer. If there is an explainable reason at all, I would think it's less likely that it is "well-related" or "arbitration-related"...and more likely that someone thinks Total might "table" the plans for a new plant until oil prices rebound."]

******

No problem with that as I actually mentioned it myself already, but it doesn't seem probable to me. LNG demand is still there and a lot of more expensive projects face more urgent questions about their economic viability. What is true is that the project could be less profitable if the energy price slump continues, but it has to continue for a really long term in order to achieve that effect. However, market perceptions could simply be: low energy prices lead to more uncertainty over projects viability, hence sell-off.

******

That makes sense, but the fact that other companies are "worse off" (or less likely to proceed with their projects) doesn't necessarily increase IOC's chances of proceeding.  It could be that all of them get put on hold.  The best team to miss the playoffs still misses the playoffs.  That being said, I assume TOT has to pay us for the gas even if no plant is built so they must have a back-up plan in mind to make it profitable.  I assume that would involve selling to XOM...unless of course XOM decides they want to wait on a third train too.  It's all speculation.  I am just searching for some answer that sounds more plausible to me than "market fluctuations" or "short manipulation".

Agreed CAC.  We are all searching for plausible answers here.

[admin]

Yes, in theory all projects can be on hold, but LNG demand is increasing at 5% a year and somebody sooner or later has to build additional capacity.

It's a bit of a collective action problem but the market is usually fairly good at sorting that out. And it's not necessarily the market, Total is a very big firm, they will look at their projects as a portfolio and weigh the prospects of each.

I'm not saying it's not possible we're getting delayed or even canned, but I think that's really fairly unlikely.

But even if the risk is small, it has notched up a bit, there is no denying in that.

[Putncalls]

The latest sell off did begin on Monday Asian time when that presentation was made public?