Antelope South-1

[ArtM72]

I know we are trying to finish the appraisal work at Antelope so we can get our big payday but it is also important to know how many trains PRL15 will support. If the JV partners are all as high on Antelope South as it appears they need to get this well drilled as soon as possible. If Antelope South does have 5.5 Tcfe and Antelope has 10+ Tcfe that would be enough gas for four trains. At the present they are still hung up talking about 7 Tcfe and a two train plant.

I see Antelope Deep is scheduled for 2nd half of 2015 (timing subject to JV approval), Concept
Selection by Midyear 2015 and FID in 2017.

Four.  Hmmm.  If that were the case another billion on the shelf might not be a bad idea.

[Li'loilady]

Right on, Pet.  We're laying the groundwork (oh sure...pun intended) for the next 30+ years; let's do it right even if our scheduled events get pushed back a bit.

Ques-ti-o-nie for those in the biz:  Am I remembering correctly that it is customary to start with a 2 train build (of whatever capacity) and then build additional trains after 1st gas?  Of course, as Pet is suggesting, knowing how much gas we have must determine the size of those trains.

Ques-ti-o-nie #2:  Okay…this is a lame one.  Is it safe to assume that the concept selected MUST ALWAYS include the size of each train?  Or might could maybe that be put off until FEED (which is scheduled for immediately following concept selection.)

Is that in your bailywick, Stavros?  Others?

TIA

[Stavros]

Ques-ti-o-nie #2: Okay…this is a lame one. Is it safe to assume that the concept selected MUST ALWAYS include the size of each train? Or might could maybe that be put off until FEED (which is scheduled for immediately following concept selection.)

Is that in your bailywick, Stavros? Others?

I had to look up "bailiwick" first to see if I am legally allowed to respond.

From what IOC has said repeatedly, the Concept Selection will not yet include the "Basis of Design" which they say will be the next step.

That means they still haven't confirmed the compositions and amounts of the Gas or the Condensate coming from the wells.

They said there is evidence that enough gas is in place to underpin a multi-train LNG Complex. Conventional wisdom is that roughly 6 tcf of recoverable gas is required to enable operation/sales for the required 20 years of the project.

So it seems to me that the Concept Selection report may say the following:

1. We will build an LNG Complex comprised of 2 parallel trains with a capacity of at least X million tons per annum. We will not decide on the final size until the Basis of Design is set
2. The LNG Complex will be located at AA on the attached map
3. The upstream Gas Conditioning Unit will be located at BB on the attached map
4. Pipelines will be laid out as indicated on the attached map
5. We selected the LNG liquefaction process licensed by Mr. CC (perhaps Air Liquide?)
6. The LNG Complex will include two Tanks, each holding DD cubic meters of LNG
7. The LNG Complex will include a Jetty that is EE kilometers long with ability to handle ships with FF m3 capacity

Of particular note is the fact that TOTAL has been developing a Floating LNG concept for quite some time. It is not out of the realm of possibility that they could opt for a version of "FLNG" located at the Gulf location. This might be enough to appease the Gulf Province folks who have repeatedly stated that the entire E/A project must be located within their borders.

http://www.total.com/en/energies-experti...kludge1%ff

[jft310]

Interesting add 10 T's plus 5.5 T's which is 15.5 T's which is within Henry Aldorf's estimate in 2009 of 12-16 T's. Fully explains why he was CEO of Int Marathon . Phil M listened to Henry . Explains Wayne Andrews comments that Interoil is a $200 stock in that taped interview with a short .
HAGD

[Li'loilady]

Wow.  Thanks, Stavros, for answering everything from A–Z.  Triple A rating.  Very informative for our board.

I'm hoping to clarify one thing with you.  You wrote, "1. We will build an LNG Complex comprised of 2 parallel trains with a capacity of at least X million tons per annum. We will not decide on the final size until the Basis of Design is set."  And then, "6. The LNG Complex will include two Tanks, each holding DD cubic meters of LNG."

So, are you expecting IOC/TOT to announce something like this paraphrase, "These tanks will hold a minimum of X cm, and we'll get back to you on the actual tank size when we're darn good and ready or the "Basis of Design" is complete, whichever comes first."?  Am I understanding you correctly on that?

There's only one thing that I really must disagree with you on.  Your signature.

[Stavros]

Ha! Yes I think X (sizes of the Trains) and DD (sizes of the Tanks) will be a product of the Basis of Design exercise. I of course can be totally wrong since there are a multitude of possible outcomes from this Concept Selection Study that has been ongoing for many months. When I've done similar studies for major Petrochemical Owners, they usually referred to it as being a "Detailed Feasibility Study" that included the Basis of Design and a +/- 25% cost estimate. For some reason, TOTAL seems to have decided to do this is two steps. OR ... perhaps the outcome is so compelling that they'll in fact include the Basis of Design in the results. package???? That's why I, and others it seems from reading some posts here and on the ZOO, are afraid to sell any IOC shares because there could be a huge announcement any day that rockets the stock big time. Anyone SHORT IOC must be finding it hard to sleep knowing that an announcement can be on the wires in the AM when they arise.

[Li'loilady]

(I thought I'd already posted this: )  Got it.  Clear as a bell.  After whatever details we (or you) might get upon concept selection and then basis of design, it would be great to hear your thoughts.

Thanks, Stavros.