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We think there is significant volatility ahead of us so we take some money off the table with the intent to reload.
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We don't know about you, but stuff like this looks pretty scary to us..
South Korea's exports shrank to nearly a seven-year low in January, slumping for 13 straight months on soft global demand, according to the Ministry of Trade, Industries and Energy. Exports dropped 18.5% from a year earlier to $36.74 billion in January, following a revised 14.1% fall in December, preliminary data released by the ministry on Monday showed. The January reading--the worst print since August, 2009--missed the market expectation of a 12.3% drop.
South Korean exports drop to 7-year low - MarketWatch
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We're buying 300 DATA at $55.15 AH
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DATA (Tableau Software) is selling off in a rather emphatic fashion, but we think it's a bit overdone, after the market closes one often gets these violent reactions..
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We're buying another 200 DATA at $52.40
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It can't be that bad..
Tableau Software beats by $0.17, beats on revenue
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Tableau Software (NYSE:DATA): Q4 EPS of $0.33 beats by $0.17.
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Revenue of $202.8M (+41.9% Y/Y) beats by $2.03M.
There is of course stuff that isn't ok:
GAAP operating loss for 2015 was $52.0 million, compared to a GAAP operating income of $6.3 million for 2014. GAAP net loss for 2015 was $83.7 million, or $1.17 per diluted common share, compared to a GAAP net income of $5.9 million, or $0.08 per diluted common share, for 2014.
Tableau Reports Q4 and Fiscal Year 2015 Financial Results | Seeking Alpha
Non-GAAP operating income, which excludes stock-based compensation expense, was $67.4 million for 2015, compared to a non-GAAP operating income of $53.3 million for 2014. Non-GAAP net income, which excludes stock-based compensation expense and related income tax adjustments, was $48.1 million for 2015, or $0.62 per diluted common share, compared to a non-GAAP net income of $38.5 million, or $0.52 per diluted common share, for 2014.
Tableau Reports Q4 and Fiscal Year 2015 Financial Results | Seeking Alpha
We'll be unlucky if this is the moment the market suddenly starts to care about GAAP earnings..
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Curious reaction to the DATA earnings:
1) There was no guidance in the PR and nothing seemed to warrant such a huge selloff (almost 40% at the time before the CC started)
2) The CC started only at 4:30 only, but by then the stock had already plunged almost 40%. The bad news was in the CC (we were away but here is the essence:
On its call the company said it sees FY 2016 sales of $830-$850 million, versus the consensus of $871 million. They sees FY 2016 EPS of $0.22-$0.35, versus the consensus of $0.62.
Analyst Abhey Lamba also noted the license revenues in Q4 came in at $133 million (up 31% Y/Y) slightly below consensus of $135 million.
The stock is down 48.5% to $42.10 after-hours.
So soft guidance, but it's difficult to call it a total disaster. Still, with a stock priced for perfection, this is what happens. Pity we were away as we would certainly have bought more in the low $40s.
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Some more on Tableau:
By Tiernan Ray
Following a report this evening by data visualization software maker Tableau Software (DATA) of Q4 revenue and profit that topped analysts’ expectations, the company’s management held a conference call in which they referred to “softness” in spending by some enterprise customers, and cut the firm’s outlook for revenue in 2016.
The report and forecast sent the shares careening in after-hours trading. The stock is presently down $40.32, or 49%, at $41.43, and was down more than 50%, briefly.
Shares of competitor Qlik Technologies (QLIK) are down $1.95, or 8%, at $22.98, in sympathy.
As I said earlier, on the call, management projected revenue this quarter of $160 million to $165 million, below consensus of $179.5 million. For 2016, it cut its forecast to a range of $830 to $850 million, down from a prior $845 million to $865 million, and below consensus for $871.5 million.
Tableau’s CFO, Tom Walker, referred to “softness” in spending:
Despite our strong metrics, we saw some softness in spending especially in North America. We did see our customers continue to expand their use of Tableau in the organizations but not at the same cadence we historically experienced [...] Based on what we see in the environment and the buying patterns of our customers we are taking a prudent stance as we begin the year. We expect seasonality to be amplified as our overall revenues continue to grow.
Walker was pressed on the matter by an analyst later in the call, during the Q&A. In response, he clarified:
Overall I think my comment in my prepared remarkswere about softness in spending we saw in our customer base. Then getting back to how I commented with Mark is part of our model allows people to expand at a pace that works for them. More caution in how they were spending and how they were allocating dollars. So that’s more of what I would call highlight to, that we just saw that. The beauty of our model is it allows people to expand in smaller increments if they want.With respect to overall competitive market if you look at the internal data that we collect our win rates are not changing at all actually. We are really the mass analytics Company bringing this technology to a lot of different people who don’t know. They’ve just got questions and they’ve got data.Overall win rates softness in overall spending. Last thing you asked about was about sales productivity. As you know we have been growing at a very fast pace over the last few years. You would expect productivity numbers to come down but there are things we have to do to tighten our approach. We are focusing on that. We’ve got the right sales leadership in place andreally looking forward to 2016 quite frankly. The technology is coming out. 10.0 is armed the corner.
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Sort of funny, the analysts are still seeing a bright future when the stock is essentially halved:
Needless to say, we'd take any of these targets 
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We're buying another 300 shares of DATA at $42.87
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