Antelope 7

[ArtM72]

I would love to see the spreadsheet that is running on this Papua LNG deal. If it's any good it recognizes banks' real lending costs. What are those costs in a world where some economists are worrying about deflation because there is so much money lying around looking to be employed? What is the present value of two years of gas sold two years earlier vs no gas sold two years later but at higher prices? What is the value of being the first new LNG plant out of the box with two firm trains and a couple more waiting and ready to go in the wings? That makes IOC prime takeover target circa 2020.

Think about that second question. And then the first. If this A7 waffling continues for months and Hession fails to make the decision to move forward without A7, neither will be a possibility. IOC will have greatly diminished its ability to determine its future for year to come. Maybe great for Total, its bankers, its partners in other ventures. Not great for IOC>

Lots of money around. Might make some very good sense to start building today. What makes no sense when everyone is looking for work is to defer and delay payment to IOC, forcing the company into debt and out of its business of exploration and appraisal.

Little question what IOC's shareholders should demand in the way of a decision from Hession. No A7. Period. Show us the money. Now.

And to give a nod to what might be being done to advance the Papua LNG design and FID by Hesssion and others to justify IOC's executive committee and board over the past year. Did anyone else hear a statement, I believe by Holland, that the transmissivity (permeability?, speed of gas through the rocks?) was so great in E/A they were considering draining the reservoir from a single pad? Imagine that. Or was that my imagination?

[bdahl385]

I would love to see the spreadsheet that is running on this Papua LNG deal. If it's any good it recognizes banks' real lending costs. What are those costs in a world where some economists are worrying about deflation because there is so much money lying around looking to be employed? What is the present value of two years of gas sold two years earlier vs no gas sold two years later but at higher prices? What is the value of being the first new LNG plant out of the box with two firm trains and a couple more waiting and ready to go in the wings? That makes IOC prime takeover target circa 2020. Think about that second question. And then the first. If this A7 waffling continues for months and Hession fails to make the decision to move forward without A7, neither will be a possibility. IOC will have greatly diminished its ability to determine its future for year to come. Maybe great for Total, its bankers, its partners in other ventures. Not great for IOC> Lots of money around. Might make some very good sense to start building today. What makes no sense when everyone is looking for work is to defer and delay payment to IOC, forcing the company into debt and out of its business of exploration and appraisal. Little question what IOC's shareholders should demand in the way of a decision from Hession. No A7. Period. Show us the money. Now. And to give a nod to what might be being done to advance the Papua LNG design and FID by Hesssion and others to justify IOC's executive committee and board over the past year. Did anyone else hear a statement, I believe by Holland, that the transmissivity (permeability?, speed of gas through the rocks?) was so great in E/A they were considering draining the reservoir from a single pad? Imagine that. Or was that my imagination?

That's what he said, and its common to do this where reservoir drainage is good.  Offshore wells are drilled from a single platform that serves as both drill pad and production facility.  You just drill deviated holes in all directions like looking down at the spokes of a bicycle tire.  US Shale wells do the same thing - that is one of the main drivers to their cost efficiencies over the last 6 years. One pad and multiple wells in all directions.  The 2nd part of his comment was that it is always prudent to have a backup pad , so I would guess a primary multi-well location and a 2nd pad with lower number of wells.

[johnwgrant]

It is hard to get any 3 companies (with different agendas and priorities) to agree on anything.

So, you would think that ANT-7 will be voted down by at least one of the 3 companies.

If they have enough gas proved up for 2 Trains, why would you need to prove up more? Especially since you know that IOC has another 6TCF or so available within pipeline distance to augment any possible shortfall.

It would appear to me that IOC may be the one pushing for ANT-7 to force the 2 engineering firms to narrow in on the P50 estimate and not use widely varying guesstimates in their certification calculations.

Bottomline IMHO - no ANT-7.

PS:Given my track record in predicting things - this is almost sure to result in a unanimous 3 company vote "Yes" for ANT-7!!!

[ArtM72]

The thought occurred to me while posting on another thread that by contract at the completion of testing certification must proceed immediately. If Hession refuses to demand certification per the contract there might be actionable grounds for his removal from the CEO spot by the Board. Interesting?