White Knight

[admin]

["No way the sale to OSH gets us anywhere near that."

Yea, I realize that but there is no guarantee that in the absence of this deal the share price will reflect all that value anytime soon. In fact, this is rather unlikely.

But like I said, I'm not jumping for joy. I hate to imagine what we'll make of the situation post-deal, and there is a substantial recovery in oil, for instance. With what would be a looming certification coming up (and before that, Ant7 results) IOC shares could very well rally substantially. But it looks like we'll never know..

[Tusker]

There is going to be a substantial recovery of oil in the future. Condensate stripped in the field is considered oil by SEC.

Elk/Ant has wet gas...very wet gas at Raptor.

So estimates of a two train production estimated 10k-30k barrels of condensate per day. Lets move to the middle for connivence.

20K production per day. World traded value for a barrel is 50.00 USD. Production life 10 years. And the number is.......

USD 3,650,000,000.00

If Raptor is comparable to Elk-Ant 1.1, double it.

Sure you are getting a fair PPS offer?

[AU74]

There is going to be a substantial recovery of oil in the future. Condensate stripped in the field is considered oil by SEC. Elk/Ant has wet gas...very wet gas at Raptor. So estimates of a two train production estimated 10k-30k barrels of condensate per day. Lets move to the middle for connivence. 20K production per day. World traded value for a barrel is 50.00 USD. Production life 10 years. And the number is....... USD 3,650,000,000.00 If Raptor is comparable to Elk-Ant 1.1, double it. Sure you are getting a fair PPS offer?

You are making me sick now.  To be fair, we wouldn't own 100% of the in any case and you have to discount that figure to current dollars.

[sageo]

[quote='admin' pid='69780' dateline='1463765660']

["Stavros - Can't wrap my brain around why any  shareholder would vote for this deal . When certification (with A 7) should get us near the 2 billion dollar figure, why would our pathetic  bods even consider 2.2 billion for ALL of our great assets. Just mind boggling to me. Just simply "nutso"]

But it isn't. If certification including A7 does indeed "get us near the 2 billion dollar figure" under the old Total certification payment it will also produce substantial upside under the new OilSearch payment ($6.05 per share for every Tcfe above 6.2Tcfe).

I'm not jumping for joy, but it isn't that bad either.

*****

But compare the actual numbers. $2B from TOT under the old deal still leaves us with our remaining chunk of E/A.  If you run the pro rata numbers, than might be worth another $1.7B.  That's a total of $3.7B...or $74 per share...just for E/A.  No way the sale to OSH gets us anywhere near that.

 Cac - Thank you for your fantastic insight .  Kind'a sad imho,that so many are not "seeing the forest for the trees" . I have never,in all these years,believed all the nonsense about a $300 or $400 pps , but I damn sure realized that $85 to$95 was still a great buy for some company to make a hell of a lot of money out of our assets. If we sell out for this current offer ,we will be leaving  A LOT ON THE TABLE  !!!  ( As the Magambo Guru says ,please notice my 3 exclamation points ) . Thanks again for your explation.

[MartiniStocks9756]

Since we are sitting around waiting for a white knight which many say won't happen, we have to hope to get a sweetened deal and that Phil is lobbying the bigs to gain leverage in a negotiation. Otherwise likely game over I own OSH now. If he was fighting mad a few weeks ago he should be furious now and lining up enough support to negotiate a better deal.

[ArtM72]

All that sanctimonious crap from IOC IR about Mulacek only doing this for the power while Hession was secretly giving the company and its future away. The Trojan Horse theory has regrettably become true.

In a nutshell, this deal keeps Oil Search afloat when the high appraisal costs come through. To do that they assume ownership of IOC, then give 60% of Interoil to Total to pay for Oil Search's part of PRL15.

And for all of that IOC gets to be part of OSH...what percentage again? Of course we'll get paid a little for a few of the Ts in Elk Antelope, but nothing for the 3 million acres or for Antelope South, Bobcat, Triceratops or Raptor.

Hession has taken IOC to slaughter and in so doing personally lays claim to tens of millions additional dollars. Just how is that not robbery? It all appears legal, other than perhaps his methods of getting it done through non disclosure of material events.

[MartiniStocks9756]

Its legal and one of the complaints that we really had no control invested in a BOD that was sold as a bill of goods, and complained about him but could really not do much about him. PM at the last minute was right and the only way this can be walked back as they say in political terms is to get the big shareholders to agree with Phil that the pot needs sweetening.

[jft310]

Art the deal has major issues .
A proper fairness review by a truely independent party would reveal the flaws of the deal .
They can be litigated .
Zero value for TBR
Zero value for other PRL-15 items
No FID payment
No second appraisal payment
Self serving CEO deal
Etc
The largest shareholders control the vote , they need to think hard about selling on the LNG price bottom .

[Kaliboo]

Art the deal has major issues . A proper fairness review by a truely independent party would reveal the flaws of the deal . They can be litigated . Zero value for TBR Zero value for other PRL-15 items No FID payment No second appraisal payment Self serving CEO deal Etc The largest shareholders control the vote , they need to think hard about selling on the LNG price bottom .

Add to your list.

The CVR payment to IOC shareholders is structured to represent a DECREASING PERCENTAGE of the total payment Total will make as the field size grows above 6.2 TCFE.  I.e., OSH gets an INCREASEING % AND WE GET A DECREASING % BECAUSE THE SPA CALLED FOR $1.00 PER MCFE AND OSH IS OFFEREING US 0.77.  Plus OSH gets 100% of the value below 6.2 TCFE. WE GET NOTHING FOR VOLUME UNDER 6.2.  THE BIGGER THE VOLUME THE FURTHER APART THOSE TWO CURVES PLOT SO OUR PERCENTAGE GETS SMALLER AND SMALLER.  THIS EFFECT IS DUE TO THE PAYMENT OSH POCKETS BELOW 6.2 TCFE.

[Kaliboo]

Art the deal has major issues . A proper fairness review by a truely independent party would reveal the flaws of the deal . They can be litigated . Zero value for TBR Zero value for other PRL-15 items No FID payment No second appraisal payment Self serving CEO deal Etc The largest shareholders control the vote , they need to think hard about selling on the LNG price bottom .

Add to your list.

The CVR payment to IOC shareholders is structured to represent a DECREASING PERCENTAGE of the total payment Total will make as the field size grows above 6.2 TCFE.  I.e., OSH gets an INCREASEING % AND WE GET A DECREASING % BECAUSE THE SPA CALLED FOR $1.00 PER MCFE AND OSH IS OFFEREING US 0.77.  Plus OSH gets 100% of the value below 6.2 TCFE. WE GET NOTHING FOR VOLUME UNDER 6.2.  THE BIGGER THE VOLUME THE FURTHER APART THOSE TWO CURVES PLOT SO OUR PERCENTAGE GETS SMALLER AND SMALLER.  THIS EFFECT IS DUE TO THE PAYMENT OSH POCKETS BELOW 6.2 TCFE.

WHOOPS!  MY BAD. The above is incorrect.  Intuitively it seems true, but constructing a spreadsheet shows it not to be.  As numbers get bigger the % actually gets smaller.  That's a quirk of dividing big numbers by big numbers.  I'll have to relook later.