December 2016

[admin]

We have a new article out, on the Chinese debt problems:

• Chinese debt, particularly its corporate debt, has been rising explosively and now stands at unprecedented levels according to basically any metric.
• The magnitude is such that many expect some kind of crash.
• While that can't be excluded, particularities of the Chinese financial system provide some safeguards against that happening.
• What is more likely is that credit and economic growth will decrease and banks and companies will be burdened by debt for a long time, like Japan.

When Will China's Debt Problem Detonate? - iShares China Large-Cap ETF (NYSEARCA:FXI) | Seeking Alpha

[admin]

An interesting critical look at Warren Buffett's investment philosophy:

It's always controversial when I publicly challenge the advice of Warren Buffett, widely regarded as one of the world's best investors. Although I don't have anything like his wealth or his following, I have something Warren Buffett never will have: more than half a century "in the trenches" helping thousands of real people get the most from their investments. This vast experience, at least in my view, gives me the right (and I daresay the duty) to challenge Buffett's pronouncements when I think they will hurt more people than they will help.

7 Warren Buffett investing tips that could hurt regular investors - MarketWatch

[admin]

We have a new article out, on Cliffs Natural Resources (CLF):

• It has been quite a ride for Cliffs Natural Resources this year.
• The company recovered on the back of cost cutting and a recovery in the iron ore price.
• It also benefited from domestic protection of the steel industry.
• Whether the party will continue depends mostly on China and how much of the expected Trump infrastructure boom actually materializes.

Cliffs Natural Resources' Stock Price Exploded In 2016 - Any Rocket Fuel Left? - Cliffs Natural Resources Inc. (NYSE:CLF) | Seeking Alpha

[admin]

Interested in high dividends, well here you go:

Here is a look at a few stocks that are poised for excellent dividend returns in 2017. On the list: Boeing (BA) , which has a 3.6% dividend yield. The aerospace giant has not reduced its dividend payments in 46 years. Abbott Labs (ABT) has a 2.8% dividend yield. Abbott's management appears committed to focusing on faster growing emerging markets to spur growth. Johnson & Johnson (JNJ) has a 2.8% dividend yield. J&J's current income, growth and stability make the stock a good long-term safety bet. Cardinal Health (CAH) has a 2.5% dividend yield. Cardinal Health serves over 25,000 U.S. pharmacies and provides goods to more than 70% of U.S. hospitals. AbbVie (ABBV) has a 2% dividend yield. This pharmaceutical company hiked its dividend 12% in October and sports excellent growth potential.

Top 5 Dividend Stocks to Buy Now for 2017 - TheStreet

[admin]

Welcome to the UK!

A Dutch woman who has lived in the UK for 24 years, and has two children with her British husband, has been told by the Home Office that she should make arrangements to leave the country after she applied for citizenship after the EU referendum. The story of Monique Hawkins highlights the practical difficulties faced by millions of EU citizens concerned that they will not have the right to stay in Britain post-Brexit.

Dutch woman with two British children told to leave UK after 24 years | Politics | The Guardian

[admin]

If we don't appear as regular as you expect, here is an explanation:

If you’re over 40, working more than 25 hours of work a week could be impairing your intelligence, according to a study released in February by researchers for the Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research in Australia. The team conducted reading, pattern and memory tests in more than 6,000 workers aged over 40, to see how the number of hours worked each week affects a person’s cognitive ability. Working 25 hours a week (part time or three days a week) was the optimum amount of time spent working a week for cognitive functioning, while working less than that was detrimental to the agility of the brain for both men and women, the study found.

BBC - Capital - Is full-time work bad for our brains?

[admin]

First we had another article out, exactly on the topic of possible trade frictions between the US and China

• Since China is considerably more dependent upon the US market, at first sight, it looks like the US is in a strong position versus China to deal with trade frictions.
• However, there is an obvious way China can hit back on any US-imposed import tariffs, stop defending its currency and let it float.
• In the end, protectionism is likely to make everybody worse off.

Trump Vs. China, Round One - SPDR S&P 500 Trust ETF (NYSEARCA:SPY) | Seeking Alpha

And the following is REALLY worrying,.

Icahn: I'm concerned about the market in the short term   Thursday, 22 Dec 2016 | 12:41 PM ET | 01:12 Billionaire Carl Icahn shared his views in a wide-ranging interview Thursday with CNBC's Scott Wapner on topics such as government regulation, the economy, ETFs and his new Donald Trump administration advisory role on regulation. But the most important thing may not be what the investor said explicitly, but what he implied about the market risk of a trade war with China under Trump. "If you have a trade war with China, by definition, I remember the days something like that would really knock the hell out of the market, but maybe if you're going to do it, you should get it over with, right? So that's a consideration, you have to just make up your mind, if that's what you're going to do, you go do it," Icahn said. Most telling is how Icahn ended the interview, unprompted. "If you're asking me am I concerned about the market on the short term. Yeah I'm concerned about it," he said. "You can look at so many factors here that you have to worry about. Obviously, if you get into a trade war with China, sooner or later, I think we're going to have to come to grips with that, maybe it's better to do it sooner, but that's not my decision at all. I don't get involved with that."

The most important thing from Carl Icahn's 40-minute CNBC interview

The dollar is widely expected to be a big winner in the new year, based on better U.S. growth and higher interest rates. But the course of the dollar could also be shaped by what are now policy wild cards. President-elect Donald Trump's trade plans are one of those unknowns. He has said he would renegotiate trade agreements, and he's talked about tax penalties. Trump has also named an outspoken critic of China, Peter Navarro, to a key trade role. One controversial congressional proposal — a border-adjusted tax, which would tax imports — is expected to end up as part of the corporate tax debate. It's already getting a lot of attention in the foreign exchange market, where it is viewed as having a wide range of potential outcomes, either as a factor that could boost the dollar to double-digit gains, or even send it lower.

This Trump wild card could squash 2017's big dollar rally

[admin]

A sign of things to come..

8minutenergy Renewables claims to have "the first operational solar PV installation to beat fossil fuel prices in California." The recently commissioned 155-megawatt (AC) Springbok 2 Solar Farm in Kern County will provide electricity to the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power at $35 to $38 per megawatt-hour (adjusted for inflation) over the PPA term. Is that the lowest-cost PPA ever? The math is a little fuzzy, and 3.5 cents per kilowatt-hour might not be the lowest PPA price ever, but it's in the ballpark, and a real sign of things to come.

8minutenergy Boasts the First Solar Project to Beat Fossil Fuel Prices in California | Greentech Media

[admin]

We have a new article out, there is value in Polaris (PII):

• Polaris performance was stellar until they ran into some considerable headwinds.
• While these headwinds still persist during 2017, they should gradually ease.
• When that happens, the ongoing improvement programs are likely to start showing up and profits is likely to recover substantially.

Headwinds For Polaris Should Gradually Subside - Polaris Industries Inc. (NYSEII) | Seeking Alpha

[admin]

We did suggest buying some VIX futures or options earlier when the VIX was very low, these are already playing out.. One can't have a VIX under 12 forever..