Botten interview: Certain AE largest undeveloped resource

[ebster123]

In my mind there are tiers of poster quality. Many, myself included use our opinions in our posts. That's not bad just fact. Then others are connected to dime who have provided information (some not so factual) but still information. There is also a group of real researchers who post for the most part what is factual and new news. Then there are the one's who truly know their respective areas (ie. the Pet Eng boys, the lawyers, the real Wall Street folks). The last group, in my mind, is the group that I value most. The second to last group is a very close second. That being said, the benefit of this forum is all posters add something yo the board (be it fact, perspective or levity). Good luck all, hope it is another good day!!!

[jft310]

I see a bunch of smart people trying to figure it all out .Some days our vision is clearer than others and it fills in the time while we wait for news. Yes sometimes we see a fog bank and other times we can see the other side. Oh well.

[cybersssss]

I just want to thank EVERYONE on this board for their contributions and thoughts. I have been following this saga for a while and have appreciated the views of this board more then ever in the past several miserable months that we have had. I have learned something from ALL of the posters and want to give my sincerest gratitude for the efforts.

[calaban48]

Amensssss, cyberssss! I echo your comment.

[Spartina]

Well said Cyber.

[Palm]

It's good to see the SHU love o meter getting back up there. The new hit Happy song is being cued.

[Getitrt2]

You're right "kereksec" in saying that many people don't care who I am or what I do for a living; but some people have recently asked me this question, so the end of this post is for them. Many folks on this board are doctors, lawyers and Indian Chiefs who run their own successful buisnesses. I'm in the Oil Gas and Chemicals business as an engineer. All of us have one thing in common ... we are all very interested in Interoil. Most members of this Message Board, I think, are IOC shareholders and believe (or at least hope) that IOC will succeed. There are also many people reading this MB who are not members of our community, and many of them are convinced ( and many bet ) that IOC will fail. I'm an IOC shareholder because I learned about the company back in 2008 through some of my industry contacts. Before I bought my first tranche of stock I was told to be careful because the stock price was heavily manipulated by people who were able to control the ups and downs at their whim. I've tried to always buy on dips. I have basically held all the shares I've acquired, making the mistake not to sell on the highs and take profits. No one knows what's going on behind the curtains now that Dr Hession is running the company. So everything I post is my own opinion of what might transpire. Sometimes I get overly optimistic while at other times I swing to having a negative outlook; it varies depending on the PPS! My current view on IOC is that they will definitely succeed as a company and fulfill my long-held goal of making a better-than-average return on my investment. When is the question, not if. The industry has moved into a cost-cutting mode where only the highest ranking projects on the ROI lists will move ahead; and XOM has stated repeatedly that PNG LNG expansion is near the top of their ROI totem pole. From all the facts we know, plus the little bits and puzzle pieces that people post, I've concluded that OSH and XOM really are desperate to find enough gas for the the next PNG LNG Trains. Hence OSH jumped into PRL 15 on behalf of XOM (Santos has been curiously out of the picture). TOTAL on the other hand, is not desperate for gas, nor is PNG on the top of their leader board of projects. They currently have little desire to fork over the billions to acquire the PRL 15 stake from IOC (hence the delay built into the SPA) nor do they have the internal staff to do the required engineering studies or manage a huge LNG project. That's why they're targeting start up for sometime after 2020 when current projects are completed. The PNG government wants ( no, NEEDS ) to get cash flow from PRL 15 before the end of 2017. So they are doing what they can to help broker a win-win arrangement between the two whales, one fish and one minnow sitting at the table. JFT says he hopes IOC gets at least 15% equity share of PNG LNG Train #3 (and maybe #4). Let's see how that can happen. Maybe the final share of the pie could be the following: XOM 30% TOT 20% IOC 15% OSH 12.5% PNG 22.5% I always think of my dear friend Binckbanker and how he's now watching over us and Interoil ... we miss you man! keresec ... if you're still reading this post, this is where you should stop. Here are some of the entries from my resume: + Masters Degree in Chemical Engineering + Worked for Exxon Chemical Company for 13 years, + Worked for a Licensor of Oil/ Gas and Petrochemical technologies for 18 years + Currently work for a consulting company in Singapore for the past 8 years + Licensed, planned, designed (Basic Engineering, Detail Engineeing, FEED), started up, operated, and did troubleshooting on numerous major petrochemical complexes during my career; capital costs of up to $2 Billion + Have spoken at over 30 conferences worldwide on various topics related to the field I specialize in Good luck to all IOC shareholders. ps ... my nickname is Stavros because when I was young my head of hair mimicked that of Kojak's sidekick (who was in real life Telly Savalas' brother Georgios)

I also greatly appreciate the sincere and knowledgeable contributions to this forum.

That certainly includes you, Stavros.  Someone said that you did the FEED on the previously planned Gulf LNG project.  I take it that is not correct?

What is the source or basis for your concluding that the government is actively involved in trying to broker a deal for use of PRL 15 for expansion of PNG LNG?  Do you think it would likely be for all or just part of PRL 15?  Do you think another feasible option might be to use Triceratops or other potential IOC gas sources for that?

If Exxon is so "desperate" for "enough gas for the next PNG LNG Trains" (from PRL 15), why did they not offer enough before to get that over Total?  It seems to me that would not have been overly expensive, especially given the general view that Total got a good deal.  A major factor in the selection of Total was the relative certainty of development of ALL of PRL 15.  Why was Exxon not willing to commit to that instead of wanting to skim 4.6 Tcf off the top and leave the rest to IOC to develop separately, given the supposed desire and need to expand PNG LNG by multiple trainS as you say?  They could have accelerated their expansion by getting that deal done last year, instead of dragging it out and losing it to Total with an inferior offer.  What reason do you have now to believe Exxon is ready to offer something that is not inferior?  Are you suggesting the government could and would force IOC AND Total to accept an inferior deal (illegally against one "whale" and one "minnow"?

Why would you say Total has "little desire to fork over the billions to acquire the PRL 15 stake from IOC" when that is scheduled to occur next year after further appraisal and delineation of PRL 15, with $401 million already paid and Total carrying all the cost of the drilling?  The preliminary agreement with Exxon last year also called for that further appraisal to begin with, and I understand would be standard in any deal.

How did you derive your suggested potential ownership percentages in PRL 15 and the LNG expansion?  You have OSH giving up 29% of its current ownership, Total giving up 36%, and IOC, the successful discoverer of the resources and Upstream Operator, giving up 47%, with OSH going from 62% of IOC's ownership to 83%.  Given the likely $billions being paid by Total for its ownership as you pointed out, not to mention OSH's cost of its buy-in, are you suggesting Total, IOC, and OSH should or would now hand over to Exxon major parts of their gas for free, for nothing but much less LNG ownership than they have now?  You would have Total paying IOC for gas resources and drilling while gifting part of it to Exxon (even though it is a "whale" also)?  Your "minnow" comment about IOC implies that's your thinking.  Where is the rest of the new forced deal you guys are suggesting?  Or are you actually suggesting that PNG, Exxon, and OSH (with the latter giving away part of theirs) can and are going to illegally force something less of that sort?  I feel sure that Dr Hession does not feel like or think he is a "minnow" in this situation, with ownership and control in partnership with a Major of by far "the biggest undeveloped resource in PNG" (probably in SE Asia) and several other huge likely multi-Tcf prospects currently under the drill bit in new six-year PPLs, not to mention PRL 39.  I would expect them to listen to any Major that wants to talk, but don't tell me they are just "minnows" being told what they have to do, any more than they were in December.  I am certainly not claiming I couldn't be wrong, but this SPA and related agreements were not replaced as suggested by many in March, and I will believe it is replaced as being suggested now when I actually see it happen.

[kerekesc]

You're right "kereksec" in saying that many people don't care who I am or what I do for a living; but some people have recently asked me this question, so the end of this post is for them. Many folks on this board are doctors, lawyers and Indian Chiefs who run their own successful buisnesses. I'm in the Oil Gas and Chemicals business as an engineer. All of us have one thing in common ... we are all very interested in Interoil. Most members of this Message Board, I think, are IOC shareholders and believe (or at least hope) that IOC will succeed. There are also many people reading this MB who are not members of our community, and many of them are convinced ( and many bet ) that IOC will fail. I'm an IOC shareholder because I learned about the company back in 2008 through some of my industry contacts. Before I bought my first tranche of stock I was told to be careful because the stock price was heavily manipulated by people who were able to control the ups and downs at their whim. I've tried to always buy on dips. I have basically held all the shares I've acquired, making the mistake not to sell on the highs and take profits. No one knows what's going on behind the curtains now that Dr Hession is running the company. So everything I post is my own opinion of what might transpire. Sometimes I get overly optimistic while at other times I swing to having a negative outlook; it varies depending on the PPS! My current view on IOC is that they will definitely succeed as a company and fulfill my long-held goal of making a better-than-average return on my investment. When is the question, not if. The industry has moved into a cost-cutting mode where only the highest ranking projects on the ROI lists will move ahead; and XOM has stated repeatedly that PNG LNG expansion is near the top of their ROI totem pole. From all the facts we know, plus the little bits and puzzle pieces that people post, I've concluded that OSH and XOM really are desperate to find enough gas for the the next PNG LNG Trains. Hence OSH jumped into PRL 15 on behalf of XOM (Santos has been curiously out of the picture). TOTAL on the other hand, is not desperate for gas, nor is PNG on the top of their leader board of projects. They currently have little desire to fork over the billions to acquire the PRL 15 stake from IOC (hence the delay built into the SPA) nor do they have the internal staff to do the required engineering studies or manage a huge LNG project. That's why they're targeting start up for sometime after 2020 when current projects are completed. The PNG government wants ( no, NEEDS ) to get cash flow from PRL 15 before the end of 2017. So they are doing what they can to help broker a win-win arrangement between the two whales, one fish and one minnow sitting at the table. JFT says he hopes IOC gets at least 15% equity share of PNG LNG Train #3 (and maybe #4). Let's see how that can happen. Maybe the final share of the pie could be the following: XOM 30% TOT 20% IOC 15% OSH 12.5% PNG 22.5% I always think of my dear friend Binckbanker and how he's now watching over us and Interoil ... we miss you man! keresec ... if you're still reading this post, this is where you should stop. Here are some of the entries from my resume: + Masters Degree in Chemical Engineering + Worked for Exxon Chemical Company for 13 years, + Worked for a Licensor of Oil/ Gas and Petrochemical technologies for 18 years + Currently work for a consulting company in Singapore for the past 8 years + Licensed, planned, designed (Basic Engineering, Detail Engineeing, FEED), started up, operated, and did troubleshooting on numerous major petrochemical complexes during my career; capital costs of up to $2 Billion + Have spoken at over 30 conferences worldwide on various topics related to the field I specialize in Good luck to all IOC shareholders. ps ... my nickname is Stavros because when I was young my head of hair mimicked that of Kojak's sidekick (who was in real life Telly Savalas' brother Georgios)

"You are right "kereksec" in saying many people don't care what I say or do for a living....."  Thank you for understanding half of my post!  I guess I shouldn't be amazed how sensitive people are when they feel they are, in some way, not being taken seriously .  They read so much into a one's post that was neither stated nor even intended.  If I damaged Mr. Stavros' feeling I apologize.  I must point out, however, I did not say anything critical of Mr. Stavros.  I merely responded to a post which, quite condesendingly, asked if we knew who Mr. Stavros was.  The implication being that if we knew who he was we would take his statements seriously and without question.  I merely stated that Mr. Stavros' statements would determine whether individuals will give him credibility, not his resume.  It is a fact that on a message board, anyone can say what they want about themselves and their background.  I am sure everyone on this board has known people with very impressive credentials who were not taken seriously by their peers.  This is the only point I was attempting to make.....nothing more nothing less.   Since it was mentioned, however, I would like to know why a person with a Master Degree in Chemical Engineering would  feel they can confidently opine that a savy international oil major would spend hundred of millions of dollars, and commit to spending billions of dollars, if they "are not desparate for gas or if PNG is not on top of their leader board of projects?"    Sorry, this is a rhetorical question which requires no answer....I should know better, but I cann't help myself.  I am weak and lacking confidence in myself.