Timelines that matter

[Nak for it]

Just sum it up like this S&P up over 25% in the last year. IOC down25%. Maybye some here say no big deal but, the FACT is IOC has comunicated very poorly. They can say align with shareholders all they want but, I prefer to see deliver for shareholders.

[Getitrt2]

Nak, I don't know of anyone saying all this is "no big deal". It is a more correct and verifiable "FACT" that you can come up with a wide range of S&P/IOC comparisons, and also various different cause/responsibility assignments, by picking different one-year or other time frames, a useless game. Probably most importantly, however, it was not Hession who created expectations of a lucrative higher-priced deal with Exxon, followed by a weak market in early 2014. I guess it's understandable still having whining at a very high level, although the 60s sure beats the 40s, but let's try to evaluate things objectively and properly, rather than just mostly vetting our frustrations.

If we get a dry hole, I wonder whether we'll have whining at new highs, or less of both shareholders and whining? I don't think we'll find out; I sure hope not!

[jdeo1969]

The bottom line is this: Anyone could have sold, myself included prior to December 6th, but I believed the inking of a deal was going to send us well into triple digits. I had hoped that 7 months later we would be back to that watermark. We wait and see, and I do have faith that we will find more gas, which cannot possibly be a bad thing. The stock price currently does not reflect anything other than EA from what I read in analysts targets or opinions, etc. I am just a bit frothy right now and want to see this company "getitrt".

Good luck longs
Jdeo

[Nolan]

People are overestimating what "good" news will bring to this stock. Unless we are bought out (which I believe is the likely scenario) or find oil, this stock is unlikely to reach 75. Every bit of good news for the last 2+ years has resulted in the stock declining. Even with today's good news, we go up 2% and slowly drop.

Yes, we all good have sold; but at the end of the day, this has been a poor investment no matter what spin anyone puts on it

As a holder for over 6 years and a believer in the assets, my patience has worn thin. Management's responsibility is to increase shareholder value. Phil failed. WA should have been fired with the old management team (shill for management or incompetent). Hession delivered Total $s and some new drills, but horrible communications.

Let's hope good news happens soon and drives the stock price and management stops the games played with the stock. If not, until the company is bought out, it will be a long 2 - 3 more years before the PPS moves significantly or even matches what the S&P does.

[mikesioc]

The only fact that matters for investors is the PPS and the facts are $64. After Total deal, lease extensions, minority interest buyout, and all the "interested" parties Hession mentions. Agree that WBR results won't move the needle much unless they are negative and then we'll be back into the 50's or lower. Furthermore, we know with certainty even $400 million in fresh capital doesn't move the needle. This company has to be sold to the highest bidder, that will maximize shareholder value. Otherwise we'll wait years to get anywhere close. Let's get it going already and see how much value Hession has created. Presumably his quotes published today can be attributed to WBR and Triceratops.

[jft310]

The only fact that matters for investors is the PPS and the facts are $64. After Total deal, lease extensions, minority interest buyout, and all the "interested" parties Hession mentions. Agree that WBR results won't move the needle much unless they are negative and then we'll be back into the 50's or lower. Furthermore, we know with certainty even $400 million in fresh capital doesn't move the needle. This company has to be sold to the highest bidder, that will maximize shareholder value. Otherwise we'll wait years to get anywhere close. Let's get it going already and see how much value Hession has created. Presumably his quotes published today can be attributed to WBR and Triceratops.

So far from what's to come are you Mike. You clearly don't understand the markets. It's a fact!

Did Oil Search rise 650 percent in 1 year or did it rise as each milestone was reached?will Oil Search reach $20 per share in 2020 well most likely yes! They bought their assets vs IOC who discovered their assets through the drill bit.

Did LNG stock symbol rise from $2 to $65 in 1 year ? Do they have revenue or cash flow yet nope. Are they two years away from cash flow and revenue well yes they are. Guess what the stocks risen from $2 to $65 in anticipation.Is LNG the stock for sale ? Well no !, Mike you are clearly a CD man. Would you prefer the 1 year or 5 year CD?..

Stock investing should be left to others.

[SamAdams]

Investing in stocks isn't about being completely indifferent to the stock price and moving the goal posts either.  Good companies or assets don't necessarily make for good stocks or investments.  Some of that depends on your time frame because IOC has been a good stock over the long haul but hasn't been a good one in the short or medium term.  That can be manipulated according to what time periods you were in but from someone who remembers buying some at $10 and $15 and $30 it doesn't mean I think its been a good stock over the last couple of years, especially given the volatility.  That does factor into returns after all.  But good stocks are where expectations are set correctly and its been a long time since that's happened with this stock.  The former CEO set expectations unrealistically TOO HIGH ( $2 per mcf + ).  The new CEO didn't reset those price expectations eventhough he knew the market was sub $1.  He set expectations right on timing but missed the important point.  The stock would be higher, maybe not signfiticantly ( $70-$80 but only a guess) but we would have all missed the drama of the $40s.  These mistakes are cumulative and stay with a company and stock and the psyche of the "bigs" who aren't involved.  The fact they haven't been bought out really questions if there ever was a beauty contest or just PM looking at himself in the mirror (meant to be funny and not bitter).  So the company still has a lot of credibility to earn and that takes time to impact the stock if ever.  Unless they find OIL, and its irresponsible at this point to hint its even in the cards, the climb will be slow and they won't get much credit for what they do find.  Look how long its taking to get the value of EA even close to being recognized.  Tiime and price are the two key variables in stocks.  Time to certification was much longer and more extensive than anyone here imagined.  The former CEO wanted to belive that full value of the assets would have been recognized mostly or immediately on "the deal". and what we got was half the price and another year plus to certify what we know is already there.  I do agree that full value will probably have to come from a sale but will most likely be well below what investors once envisioned.  I am still holding and hopeful just more realistic about where this all goes.  MH will be tested by fire if he misses on a couple of wells but I don't tihnk a couple of good wells lights a fire either.  All just IMO.

[trans]

Investing in stocks isn't about being completely indifferent to the stock price and moving the goal posts either.  Good companies or assets don't necessarily make for good stocks or investments.  Some of that depends on your time frame because IOC has been a good stock over the long haul but hasn't been a good one in the short or medium term.  That can be manipulated according to what time periods you were in but from someone who remembers buying some at $10 and $15 and $30 it doesn't mean I think its been a good stock over the last couple of years, especially given the volatility.  That does factor into returns after all.  But good stocks are where expectations are set correctly and its been a long time since that's happened with this stock.  The former CEO set expectations unrealistically TOO HIGH ( $2 per mcf + ).  The new CEO didn't reset those price expectations eventhough he knew the market was sub $1.  He set expectations right on timing but missed the important point.  The stock would be higher, maybe not signfiticantly ( $70-$80 but only a guess) but we would have all missed the drama of the $40s.  These mistakes are cumulative and stay with a company and stock and the psyche of the "bigs" who aren't involved.  The fact they haven't been bought out really questions if there ever was a beauty contest or just PM looking at himself in the mirror (meant to be funny and not bitter).  So the company still has a lot of credibility to earn and that takes time to impact the stock if ever.  Unless they find OIL, and its irresponsible at this point to hint its even in the cards, the climb will be slow and they won't get much credit for what they do find.  Look how long its taking to get the value of EA even close to being recognized.  Tiime and price are the two key variables in stocks.  Time to certification was much longer and more extensive than anyone here imagined.  The former CEO wanted to belive that full value of the assets would have been recognized mostly or immediately on "the deal". and what we got was half the price and another year plus to certify what we know is already there.  I do agree that full value will probably have to come from a sale but will most likely be well below what investors once envisioned.  I am still holding and hopeful just more realistic about where this all goes.  MH will be tested by fire if he misses on a couple of wells but I don't tihnk a couple of good wells lights a fire either.  All just IMO.

[Putncalls]

I don't know about slow.........
What happens if it appears that the 2 billion from Total is a "slam dunk"?
What if any of the exploration wells are a success?
What happens if IOC is bought out?
What happens if FID on LNG with Total appears eminent?

Sub 1$? last time a looked Total already agreed to pay 1.30$ for anything over 7Ts in all?

[SamAdams]

I don't know about slow......... What happens if it appears that the 2 billion from Total is a "slam dunk"? What if any of the exploration wells are a success? What happens if IOC is bought out? What happens if FID on LNG with Total appears eminent? Sub 1$? last time a looked Total already agreed to pay 1.30$ for anything over 7Ts in all?

Puts, you can't cherry pick the top of the barrel.  They got less than $1 for the whole shabang.  Period.  MH knew he wouldn't get $1 per mcf for the gas.  I haven't done the math but if we get to 15Ts maybe all in you end up over $1 but it was well below expectations and he knew it would be.  That's my only point.  Lots could go right and I hope it does.  Not sure what the inflection point will be for the "stock" versus the company.  I still find this one of the most intriguing companies/opprotunities around but there is a big discount on it.  How/when it gets lifted I'm not sure.  Its still not viewed favourably by many institutional investors.  If I had made one bet this year it would have been more sell side coverage and perhaps from CSFB.  They will eventually hop on board as the story matures.  LIghteneing could strike on the E&P side but the days of the Supers "having" to buy this have past.  With all the logic that XOM "had" to buy them, it never happened, and I was an XOM scenario guy.  When faced with these contradictions you,I,we have to go back and check your,mine,our assumptions.