Summary Analysis of UBS report of 27 May 2015 + Comments

[jft310]

MRP read elsewhere it's expected E/A will have a 94 percent recovery factor . Not sure where I read that right now A senior moment .

[Palm]

If their wasn't going to be an A6 how could the certification be delayed until 2Q or mid 2016? How could the site preparation be funded without JV approval? Wouldn't a finished appraisal program be in the best interest of IOC AND OSH?

Ant 6 likely will be drilled, and if it's not completed until the end of 2015 the timing of the call for Certification and the process for it likely will take it to mid 2Q 2016. They don't have to do Ant 6; there were only 2 wells that were to be drilled for sure as part of appraisal. Ant 6 is the optional 3rd well that has been decided to drill. Just clearing the well pad does not mean they HAVE to drill, but it appears they've agreed to go ahead with it pending govt approval.

[jft310]

Can't imagine the govt declining more appraisal wells, might be more dolomite or a lagoon well ??

[Stavros]

I suspect they'll eventually be required to drill Ant-6 as a Production Well.

If that's the case, then the money required to drill must ultimately be spent; the question is "when" ... Do they truly think there's a good chance that drilling now will MEASURABLY increase the Resource Estimate without jeopardizing the FID timing? Or is it a crap shoot?

In addition, the project must ultimately have at least one deep well into the structure to re-inject the water that's removed in the Gas Conditioning Plant. Perhaps one of the wells drilled in relatively "Poor" quality rock will be used for that purpose?

[Putncalls]

I don't see any party that would want A6 to take the slow road other than maybe Total.

[jft310]

I think that's a maybe on Total they have some high cost projects that need a low cost project to make their LNG portfolio work more profitably in this low LNG-oil price market . Further there are substantial cost savings now which over time can not last .