She is a Giant!!

[Martinistocks]

The what if's are several positives and the what if's are several negatives. Weighing the risk here is the complicated aspect of this company. Now instead of the craziness of the country politics we have worse the craziness of the energy markets, international economies from the Saudi's to the Chinese. There are a lot of spoons stirring the dark black cauldron and certification which is only a half year or so also will have decision makers impacting our values. The investor has a lot to think about with our little company.

[Palm]

The what ifs are a study in frustration. For a good time the markets just "are".

If worms had machine guns, they wouldn't be afraid of birds. But they don't, and they are.

[sageo]

The what if's are several positives and the what if's are several negatives. Weighing the risk here is the complicated aspect of this company. Now instead of the craziness of the country politics we have worse the craziness of the energy markets, international economies from the Saudi's to the Chinese. There are a lot of spoons stirring the dark black cauldron and certification which is only a half year or so also will have decision makers impacting our values. The investor has a lot to think about with our little company.

  Martini - Good day to you. Your words"our little company" has a loud ring to them imo. In the dard black cauldron that is going to get a lot more stirring ,we have something that is huge and very valuable. After re-reading our own brilliant PE's latest post(Pet), I  now understand better what is happening. [ GIANT does not seem to fully express what lies beneath our current E/A wells.]  All the SMs have their in-house PEs and Geophysicist who are very sharp guys so I'm sure many of them are seeing exactly what Pet is observing about this "Giant", but cannot express it openly . Stay tuned for the next(evolving slowly) chapter.  My best to you and yours. ....sageo

[Martinistocks]

Sageo good day to you and maybe we should refer to PET as our Wizard PE extraordinaire. And to Palm, Buffet says to buy when there is blood in the streets. I think the energy market qualifies. From large to small everyone is feeling pain.

[sageo]

Sageo good day to you and maybe we should refer to PET as our Wizard PE extraordinaire. And to Palm, Buffet says to buy when there is blood in the streets. I think the energy market qualifies. From large to small everyone is feeling pain.

Marti- With "blood in the streets",is there a better time to sign contracts for future delivery of steel pipes for our future pipelines.ROWs and other necessary products than now or in the next few months? With cost cutting occurring in many areas of the energy sector,when one is looking back a year or two from now, this could look like a golden opportunity. ( I like your Wizard PE  comment !). Have a pleasant evening.

[CAC]

I have been looking at the last couple of presentations again (since we have nothing else to look at) and I think I am seeing a couple more indications that “She is a Giant!!”. Let me see if I can explain what I am thinking.

1. First, let’s look at http://tinyurl.com/p5bttdy page 5. This East/West cross section indicates, in the post drill picture at the bottom, that they think the reef extends all the way to the gas/water contact to the West. I believe there is an error in this chart and it appears that IOC also believes the same as shown on page 6. A cross section from Antelope-3 to Antelope-5 is more of a North/South cross section than it is an East/West cross section (see map on the right). You will also note that the formation no longer dips to the West on this map but it stays high all the way to the fault. There is no gas/water contact to the West. Instead we will have “wedge” of reef that gets thinner as it approaches the fault and it is too high to have a gas/water contact to the West. You can see on this latest map that most of the area to the West of Anteople-5 is even higher than Antelope-1 and Antelope-5 and about the same as Antleope-3 which is the highest well in the Field.

2. I really like this new map much better than the old maps shown on http://tinyurl.com/q2lzmbq pages 9, 10, 12 - 15 etc. Of course one reason is that the new map shows all of the area to the West as being higher and thus containing more gas than the old map would have allowed. Another reason is the intriguing area to the Southeast on the new map at http://tinyurl.com/p5bttdy page 6 which I will discuss below.

3. The new map on page 6 does not do justice to the size of the field because it does not show all of the area of the field that is above the gas/water contact. You can see a  little piece of the gas/water contact which is the dotted line in the northeast corner of the map by the big N. So the entire area of this map is filled with gas and there is  more to the North, East and South that is not shown on the map.

4. The intriguing area to the Southeast is interesting because that is where we are drilling the side track at Antelope-4. It is intriguing because to the Southeast of Antelope-4 the formation is no longer going down dip but it is going up dip a little and the map does not show how big this area is. The gas/water contact is at -2,214 meters sub sea so every thing above that depth contains gas. As you can see the map is only showing us the area that is above -1,900 / -2,000 meters sub sea in the Southeast corner of the map. So there is a lot more area to the Southeast that is gas filled but is not shown on this map.

5. Now let’s turn our attention to the North/South cross section on page 6. You can see that the distance from Antelope-1 to Antelope-5 is 2.5 km. Using this measurement we can determine that it is about 5 km from Antelope-1 to Antelope-4.  Now looking back at the map you can see that if it is 5 km from Antelope-1 to Antelope-4 then there is another 2 km of gas field to the Southeast of Antelope-4. This is just the area that is shown on the map and it is clear that the productive area is larger than what is shown on the map because it does not include the area all the way down to the gas/water contact at  -2,214 meters sub sea.

6. Looking again at the cross section on page 6 you will see that if we just talk about the high porosity limestone cap and the dolomite section (where about 95% of the gas is located) Antelope 5 has the thickest section of good rock. You will also notice that the dolomite section is getting thicker to the South. Antelope-2 had the thickest dolomite zone drilled to date. What is South of Antelope-2? That would be Antelope-4 and Antelope-4 ST-1. From the picture of the cross section you can see that if they are kicking the well to the South (or Southeast) that it is quite possible that we could have dolomite from the top of the zone all the way to the gas/water contact. We know from the September 18th  Press Release http://tinyurl.com/pse9bd5  that Antelope-4 ST-1 found the top of the reservoir 36 meters higher than Antelope-4. We were previously told that they found the top of the formation at Antelope-4 at -1,911 meters sub sea. So Antelope-4 ST-1 found the top of the formation at -1,875 meters sub sea. We expected to find a gross gas column thickness at Antelope-4 of (-2214 - 1,911) or 303 meters or 994 feet.

Now we find the top 36 meters higher at Antelope-4 ST-1. The vertical thickness of the gross gas column at that point would be (303 + 36) 339 meters or 1,112 feet. The deviated hole will be somewhat thicker due to the angle of the hole. This may sound like a pretty thin zone when compared to the +/- 2,200 foot gas column up dip but I can assure you that people anywhere in the world would die for a 1,112 foot gas column in 100% dolomite. Let’s hope that is what they report after reaching TD.

Have a good evening!!!

******

Thanks, Pet.  Many of your statements (as well as the potential implications that arise from them) are over my head.  The title of your post makes it clear that you think there could be a lot more gas in E/A than others may be predicting, however, I'm not fully clear how you see that playing-out. 

As we know, there are two ways IOC will make money on E/A.  Ultimately, they will have part ownership in the plant, for which they will make money based on total production.  So, if production turns out to be more than expected (and more than gets originally certified) they will still reap rewards via that compnent of the deal.  The other way they get paid is based on the certification numbers...which may or may not end up accurately reflecting how much gas is really there.  

So my layman's question to you is...do you believe most of the optimistic statements in your post which suggest we might ultimately have a "giant", will be sufficiently proveable as part of the certification process (so we benefit via both the production AND the certification payment)...or that it will eventually "turn out that way" (in which case it would benefit IOC much more down the line via the production money and less so for the certification money)? 

[Getitrt2]

I have been looking at the last couple of presentations again (since we have nothing else to look at) and I think I am seeing a couple more indications that “She is a Giant!!”. Let me see if I can explain what I am thinking.

1. First, let’s look at http://tinyurl.com/p5bttdy page 5. This East/West cross section indicates, in the post drill picture at the bottom, that they think the reef extends all the way to the gas/water contact to the West. I believe there is an error in this chart and it appears that IOC also believes the same as shown on page 6. A cross section from Antelope-3 to Antelope-5 is more of a North/South cross section than it is an East/West cross section (see map on the right). You will also note that the formation no longer dips to the West on this map but it stays high all the way to the fault. There is no gas/water contact to the West. Instead we will have “wedge” of reef that gets thinner as it approaches the fault and it is too high to have a gas/water contact to the West. You can see on this latest map that most of the area to the West of Anteople-5 is even higher than Antelope-1 and Antelope-5 and about the same as Antleope-3 which is the highest well in the Field.

2. I really like this new map much better than the old maps shown on http://tinyurl.com/q2lzmbq pages 9, 10, 12 - 15 etc. Of course one reason is that the new map shows all of the area to the West as being higher and thus containing more gas than the old map would have allowed. Another reason is the intriguing area to the Southeast on the new map at http://tinyurl.com/p5bttdy page 6 which I will discuss below.

3. The new map on page 6 does not do justice to the size of the field because it does not show all of the area of the field that is above the gas/water contact. You can see a  little piece of the gas/water contact which is the dotted line in the northeast corner of the map by the big N. So the entire area of this map is filled with gas and there is  more to the North, East and South that is not shown on the map.

4. The intriguing area to the Southeast is interesting because that is where we are drilling the side track at Antelope-4. It is intriguing because to the Southeast of Antelope-4 the formation is no longer going down dip but it is going up dip a little and the map does not show how big this area is. The gas/water contact is at -2,214 meters sub sea so every thing above that depth contains gas. As you can see the map is only showing us the area that is above -1,900 / -2,000 meters sub sea in the Southeast corner of the map. So there is a lot more area to the Southeast that is gas filled but is not shown on this map.

5. Now let’s turn our attention to the North/South cross section on page 6. You can see that the distance from Antelope-1 to Antelope-5 is 2.5 km. Using this measurement we can determine that it is about 5 km from Antelope-1 to Antelope-4.  Now looking back at the map you can see that if it is 5 km from Antelope-1 to Antelope-4 then there is another 2 km of gas field to the Southeast of Antelope-4. This is just the area that is shown on the map and it is clear that the productive area is larger than what is shown on the map because it does not include the area all the way down to the gas/water contact at  -2,214 meters sub sea.

6. Looking again at the cross section on page 6 you will see that if we just talk about the high porosity limestone cap and the dolomite section (where about 95% of the gas is located) Antelope 5 has the thickest section of good rock. You will also notice that the dolomite section is getting thicker to the South. Antelope-2 had the thickest dolomite zone drilled to date. What is South of Antelope-2? That would be Antelope-4 and Antelope-4 ST-1. From the picture of the cross section you can see that if they are kicking the well to the South (or Southeast) that it is quite possible that we could have dolomite from the top of the zone all the way to the gas/water contact. We know from the September 18th  Press Release http://tinyurl.com/pse9bd5  that Antelope-4 ST-1 found the top of the reservoir 36 meters higher than Antelope-4. We were previously told that they found the top of the formation at Antelope-4 at -1,911 meters sub sea. So Antelope-4 ST-1 found the top of the formation at -1,875 meters sub sea. We expected to find a gross gas column thickness at Antelope-4 of (-2214 - 1,911) or 303 meters or 994 feet.

Now we find the top 36 meters higher at Antelope-4 ST-1. The vertical thickness of the gross gas column at that point would be (303 + 36) 339 meters or 1,112 feet. The deviated hole will be somewhat thicker due to the angle of the hole. This may sound like a pretty thin zone when compared to the +/- 2,200 foot gas column up dip but I can assure you that people anywhere in the world would die for a 1,112 foot gas column in 100% dolomite. Let’s hope that is what they report after reaching TD.

Have a good evening!!!

Pet, thanks for the extremely interesting, worthwhile, and positive commentary.

Given that the cross section is north-south, Ant 5 is south of Ant 1, and Ant 4 is mostly southeast of Ant 5, it seems to me that the distance from Ant 5 to Ant 4 is actually more than 2.5 km, in fact significantly more, based on my impression of the reservoir map insert and understanding of geometry.  That, I think, would be an even more positive interpretation of what we are seeing and hearing.  Would you agree?

In response to people complaining about the delays with and resulting from the extended Ant 4 ST in recent weeks, I have been trying to point out the very positive impressions I have had of the decision to take time to drill it and the ramifications there seemed to be of higher 100% dolomite much further south, without seeming to have much effect.  It is nice to have confirmation of those impressions and comments from you with the much greater credibility you can offer in such areas, not to mention the extremely insightful and positive aspects about the western parts of the formation you have identified and evaluated and pointed out to us.

In spite of the limited information and the concerns, I think this management knows what they are doing and are effectively pursuing what they see as in the best interest of shareholders.  I think they want to be very careful and not get ahead of what they know, and now they have taken action to move ahead with Ant 6 while still being able to thoroughly do everything they want with Ant 4 and the side track, all in consultation with and with the approval of Total.  As far as I know, we still have no information on the Ant 7 decision related to your comments on the western parts of the formation.  It will be interesting to see whether they think that is needed and worthwhile, and what the decision is with Total.  Any comments on that?

Thanks again for your efforts and valuable comments.

[jft310]

Henry Aldorf did not know about Ant South or Mule Deer, Raptor etc in PRL-15 . His estimate was for just Elk-Antelope based on several sources including the Netherland Sewell pre drill extimate report . Chew on that one !! Now understand none of Ant South or Mule Deer or Raptor etc will be on the first certification reports . But alas Hession called for a second certification and we should wonder do any of them connect with Elk-Anteope ?.. A long shot it appears but ....,
Assuming they do not connect we still get 30 percent of the LNG revenue they contain .,, not bad ..,
A cheap project then if true just got cheaper ..,

[Getitrt2]

The what if's are several positives and the what if's are several negatives. Weighing the risk here is the complicated aspect of this company. Now instead of the craziness of the country politics we have worse the craziness of the energy markets, international economies from the Saudi's to the Chinese. There are a lot of spoons stirring the dark black cauldron and certification which is only a half year or so also will have decision makers impacting our values. The investor has a lot to think about with our little company.

I do NOT agree that the current "craziness" of international markets and economies and the related risks with "our little company" are worse than the craziness of the country politics and other problems in the past years.  We now have a firm direction and strategy with the major partner and established monetization, strong government support, strong management, and financial and other resources needed to succeed; and the gas resources are looking far better than ever before.  Despite the current macro issues, the Company is much lower risk now, imo.  The current stock price does not reflect that yet, but that will come, imo.

[ArtM72]

For September 2015 the official U-6 unemployment rate fell from 10.3% in August to 9.6% in September.

However, the independently produced Gallup equivalent called the “Underemployment Rate” only fell from 14.2% in August to 14.1% in September.

The current differential between Gallup and BLS on supposedly the same data is 4.5%! or roughly a 53% margin of error!

Do you believe the Government Liars or Gallup??? I favor Gallup who have their fingers on pulses of wrists and other body parts.

http://unemploymentdata.com/current-u6-u...ment-rate/

Same story with Recession.

The Government cooks the books and says the economy is still growing. Reality the world is in recession. It will be over in 6 months and then real growth will return.

The old saying going around early 2009 was "it might be a recession to the economists but if you don't have a job it's a depression for you".  Life around my area and that of my kids' seems pretty good these days.  Maybe you need to come out for some fresh air.