Timelines that matter

[SamAdams]

I don't know about slow......... What happens if it appears that the 2 billion from Total is a "slam dunk"? What if any of the exploration wells are a success? What happens if IOC is bought out? What happens if FID on LNG with Total appears eminent? Sub 1$? last time a looked Total already agreed to pay 1.30$ for anything over 7Ts in all?

Puts, you can't cherry pick the top of the barrel.  They got less than $1 for the whole shabang.  Period.  MH knew he wouldn't get $1 per mcf for the gas.  I haven't done the math but if we get to 15Ts maybe all in you end up over $1 but it was well below expectations and he knew it would be.  That's my only point.  Lots could go right and I hope it does.  Not sure what the inflection point will be for the "stock" versus the company.  I still find this one of the most intriguing companies/opprotunities around but there is a big discount on it.  How/when it gets lifted I'm not sure.  Its still not viewed favourably by many institutional investors.  If I had made one bet this year it would have been more sell side coverage and perhaps from CSFB.  They will eventually hop on board as the story matures.  LIghteneing could strike on the E&P side but the days of the Supers "having" to buy this have past.  With all the logic that XOM "had" to buy them, it never happened, and I was an XOM scenario guy.  When faced with these contradictions you,I,we have to go back and check your,mine,our assumptions.

[Putncalls]

I don't think I Cherry picked the catalysts. I think I mentioned them all. These should happen. When? IDOENO. I do think that more gas has more value in PNG at this point in time.

[SamAdams]

Meant the $ per mcf.  have to look at it all in.  I agree on catalysts.

[SamAdams]

Meant the $ per mcf.  have to look at it all in.  I agree on catalysts.

[Getitrt2]

Very appropriate and valuable comments, Sam. Thanks for contributing.

I also agree that, although not the most important, one more piece that is needed is more analyst coverage, and more investor awareness and interest in general. That is something I have been trying to say here, and something I have suggested management is trying to work on more, including with the AGM in New York, while being met with derision from some. The Company does as you say have a lot of history and credibility issues to overcome which will take time, and I think that could help significantly, along with declining short involvement which hopefully will continue.

[mikesioc]

The only fact that matters for investors is the PPS and the facts are $64. After Total deal, lease extensions, minority interest buyout, and all the "interested" parties Hession mentions. Agree that WBR results won't move the needle much unless they are negative and then we'll be back into the 50's or lower. Furthermore, we know with certainty even $400 million in fresh capital doesn't move the needle. This company has to be sold to the highest bidder, that will maximize shareholder value. Otherwise we'll wait years to get anywhere close. Let's get it going already and see how much value Hession has created. Presumably his quotes published today can be attributed to WBR and Triceratops.

So far from what's to come are you Mike. You clearly don't understand the markets. It's a fact!

Did Oil Search rise 650 percent in 1 year or did it rise as each milestone was reached?will Oil Search reach $20 per share in 2020 well most likely yes! They bought their assets vs IOC who discovered their assets through the drill bit.

Did LNG stock symbol rise from $2 to $65 in 1 year ? Do they have revenue or cash flow yet nope. Are they two years away from cash flow and revenue well yes they are. Guess what the stocks risen from $2 to $65 in anticipation.Is LNG the stock for sale ? Well no !, Mike you are clearly a CD man. Would you prefer the 1 year or 5 year CD?..

Stock investing should be left to others.

Be careful uber.  Aren't you the guy telling everyone IOC is really worth $186 or more?  That's the current NPV right?  I told you I'd take $125, quite a bargain for a big timer like you.

[ArtM72]

The only fact that matters for investors is the PPS and the facts are $64. After Total deal, lease extensions, minority interest buyout, and all the "interested" parties Hession mentions. Agree that WBR results won't move the needle much unless they are negative and then we'll be back into the 50's or lower. Furthermore, we know with certainty even $400 million in fresh capital doesn't move the needle. This company has to be sold to the highest bidder, that will maximize shareholder value. Otherwise we'll wait years to get anywhere close. Let's get it going already and see how much value Hession has created. Presumably his quotes published today can be attributed to WBR and Triceratops.

So far from what's to come are you Mike. You clearly don't understand the markets. It's a fact!

Did Oil Search rise 650 percent in 1 year or did it rise as each milestone was reached?will Oil Search reach $20 per share in 2020 well most likely yes! They bought their assets vs IOC who discovered their assets through the drill bit.

Did LNG stock symbol rise from $2 to $65 in 1 year ? Do they have revenue or cash flow yet nope. Are they two years away from cash flow and revenue well yes they are. Guess what the stocks risen from $2 to $65 in anticipation.Is LNG the stock for sale ? Well no !, Mike you are clearly a CD man. Would you prefer the 1 year or 5 year CD?..

Stock investing should be left to others.

Be careful uber.  Aren't you the guy telling everyone IOC is really worth $186 or more?  That's the current NPV right?  I told you I'd take $125, quite a bargain for a big timer like you.

IMHO IOC remains worthy of $650/share but I'd accept $300 tomorrow.  Anything less is a copout and steal.  There just aren't many high volume/high productivity/low cost NG fields left in the world.  If we have one we shouldn't give it away. To hell with business majors and college graduates whose understanding only extends to market mechanics.  Fundies matter.

[mikesioc]

The only fact that matters for investors is the PPS and the facts are $64. After Total deal, lease extensions, minority interest buyout, and all the "interested" parties Hession mentions. Agree that WBR results won't move the needle much unless they are negative and then we'll be back into the 50's or lower. Furthermore, we know with certainty even $400 million in fresh capital doesn't move the needle. This company has to be sold to the highest bidder, that will maximize shareholder value. Otherwise we'll wait years to get anywhere close. Let's get it going already and see how much value Hession has created. Presumably his quotes published today can be attributed to WBR and Triceratops.

So far from what's to come are you Mike. You clearly don't understand the markets. It's a fact!

Did Oil Search rise 650 percent in 1 year or did it rise as each milestone was reached?will Oil Search reach $20 per share in 2020 well most likely yes! They bought their assets vs IOC who discovered their assets through the drill bit.

Did LNG stock symbol rise from $2 to $65 in 1 year ? Do they have revenue or cash flow yet nope. Are they two years away from cash flow and revenue well yes they are. Guess what the stocks risen from $2 to $65 in anticipation.Is LNG the stock for sale ? Well no !, Mike you are clearly a CD man. Would you prefer the 1 year or 5 year CD?..

Stock investing should be left to others.

Be careful uber.  Aren't you the guy telling everyone IOC is really worth $186 or more?  That's the current NPV right?  I told you I'd take $125, quite a bargain for a big timer like you.

IMHO IOC remains worthy of $650/share but I'd accept $300 tomorrow.  Anything less is a copout and steal.  There just aren't many high volume/high productivity/low cost NG fields left in the world.  If we have one we shouldn't give it away. To hell with business majors and college graduates whose understanding only extends to market mechanics.  Fundies matter.

Everyone is entitled to their opinion, apparently except those that temper their enthusiasm. $125, as has been my position for several months, is a very acceptable offer for the entire company at this time.  I, for one, can do a lot by diversifying that kind of profit over the next 7 to 10 years and beyond.  The risk and opportunity cost of holding IOC all these years together with 7 to 10 more years of risk that PNG offers does not satisfy any metric on a risk adjusted basis.  I suppose if you assume $650 by 2020 it could but that is far beyond any reasonable expectation. As Hession drills ahead and we burn cash it is my sincerest hope that WBR are successful to some extent and E/A is at least 7T's. There does exist the possibility that WBR and E/A do not meet expectations.  Then what?  My preference by far is to see IOC sold to the highest bidder for the highest price possible at that moment by next summer which is an agenda that needs a lot more support.  If IOC is worth $300 by next summer then halleluyah!  Maybe $300 by 2020?   Sorry but I'll take $125 today and be exstatic! Tomorrow? Time will tell. But tomorrow hasn't always been better owning IOC.  GLTA

[jft310]

Mike best to do DD and read the Westlake report. Posted here many times, it's got all the math for the value of an LNG plant of two trains. Or you can continue to pull numbers out of the sky,
Why do the analysts get paid millions to write up these reports? Hint and they keep their jobs .Its obvious you don't understand the impact of an LNG plant on anyone's business including Interoil.
The difference between us is I have written Wall Street research for what I say . Maybe you should give it a try vs blue sky numbers.
There is no one who can read who doesn't believe interoil has enough gas for a two train LNG plant including all the reservoir engineers . As in all. The question is what else can we do ,
Your failure to understand these basics leads one to ask why are your true intentions.

[admin]

["IMHO IOC remains worthy of $650/share but I'd accept $300 tomorrow.  Anything less is a copout and steal.  There just aren't many high volume/high productivity/low cost NG fields left in the world.  If we have one we shouldn't give it away. To hell with business majors and college graduates whose understanding only extends to market mechanics.  Fundies matter."]

I'm a little surprised at this to be honest, Art. At present, there really only is E/A to go by. We have a market price from the Total deal and there still is considerable uncertainty about what the size of E/A is.

Yes, we have the Tri deal, but we don't even understand what's there and not much has happened since the initial enthusiasm.

To arrive at sums in excess of $100, let alone $300 or $600, a whole host of things have to happen, IMHO, most notably stuff like:

• Fid on LNG plant
• Several E/A size/quality new discoveries

And while PNG has advantages in location and tax regime, and present political stability, the latter isn't guaranteed forever, especially now that very sizeable income streams from the other LNG project are materializing.

At present I don't see much reason for $100+ Let's get drilling results first, perhaps something will change that, and then the all important E/A appraisal and related Total payments. If these confirm the 9.9T from the official resource estimate, that would get us a lot higher, but we aren't there yet.