1) "I think they only thought they would have to pay for about 7 TCFe. (PET's major premise)
2) We had a Gaffney and Cline estimate for about 7 TCFe in about 2012. (PET's minor premise)
3) So I think they both went with that estimate" (PET's conclusion)
So this is what Pet says.
I simply take that as:
- When TOT and OSH entered PRL15 they thought the contingency payment risk was relatively low (on whatever estimate it is based is not terribly relevant, those of Gaffney, their own, a mix, whatever)
- Now, after three years of appraisal, they might realize the contingency payment risk is a lot higher.
- The OSH take-over of IOC and MoU with TOT is at least partly informed by the desire to reduce that contingency risk.
I don't what your problem is with this interpretation, but perhaps I'm the idiot..

