11-29-2012, 04:12 AM
A friend asked me to post this poll - I am looking forward to see what the perception out there is.
H&H
Hemi
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Fun: What Price Do You Think The Selldown Will Bring?
Fun: What Price Do You Think The Selldown Will Bring?
| Poll: How much per Mcf do you think IOC will get in the selldown deal? You do not have permission to vote in this poll. |
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| ZERO - Government expropriates the resource | 0 | 0% | |
| 0-0.50/Mcf - IOC is going bankrupt and have to sell ASAP | 1 | 1.47% | |
| 0.51 - 1.00/Mcf - Only bidder is government, this is the best they can get | 1 | 1.47% | |
| 1.01-1.50/Mcf - IOC is in no position to bargain | 9 | 13.24% | |
| 1.51-2.00/Mcf - Not as many bidders as IOC is suggesting | 16 | 23.53% | |
| 2.01-2.50/Mcf - Multiple SM/NOC/Utilites - This is a competitive bidding environment | 26 | 38.24% | |
| 2.51-3.00/Mcf - Cheapest gas to produce in SE Asia - nuff said | 13 | 19.12% | |
| 3.01-4.00/Mcf - Marubeni deal was for 3.16/Mcf | 1 | 1.47% | |
| 4.01-7.00/Mcf - Phil said it on the CC over a year ago | 1 | 1.47% | |
| Total | 68 vote(s) | 100% | |
| * You voted for this item. | [Show Results] |
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Fun: What Price Do You Think The Selldown Will Bring?
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11-29-2012, 04:16 AM
What selldown? Didn't you hear Hefi? All bidders have bailed and IOC is being forced to take $.10/mcfe from the government and Shell is being forced down their throats.
11-29-2012, 04:30 AM
How about the 2nd selldown? What are the gov't's "commercial terms"? 
11-29-2012, 05:17 AM
'davidhmtk' pid='13451' datel Wrote: PNG will pay the same as the 1st selldown. No discount.
What Price Do You Think The Selldown Will Bring? Tears. Tears of joy for the longs, just tears for the shorts. 
11-29-2012, 05:31 AM
'efi426hemi' pid='13447' datel Wrote:
120 and a steady climb after that , drilling results , offtakes and increased fieldexploration thru farm outs Plus the refinery gets condesate business from smaller operators like Horizon , deals will be made
All unlocks after continuation thru SD
11-29-2012, 05:44 AM
I'm trying to do some more research on the project but I just came across an article saying Sinopec paid $2.1Bil for a 25% stake in an LNG plant in Australia that appears relatively similar to ours in size/scope...obviously it's not the exact same but it's a good "Comp"
http://www.originenergy.com.au/news/arti...eases/1409
11-29-2012, 06:39 AM
I believe that the $1.51-$2 is likely but not because there are not many bidders. I believe the first sell down will be to the goverment's likinig and may be a lower value. However, future SDs will be more.
11-29-2012, 07:07 AM
First, let me say, I wish the poll was just numbers or that the comments were a separate poll.
Also, I wish the structure of the poll was different. I say that because the 2.85/mcf number that was assigned to the PRE is very different from a deal that provides significant amount of cash upfront. That being said, I have placed my vote and I look forward to the news release. Hopefully it comes quickly. Best, Sam
11-29-2012, 07:17 AM
Its interesting that you can see where everyone voted by clicking "show results".
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