Dilemma

[Optionray]

What a Dilemma!  Over the next 5 weeks, you / I might expect the PPS to increase, but what if it starts to get driven down?  Is that a buying opportunity because the shorts are trying to artifically drive down the price so that they may cover (similiar to last weeks action).  Or, is it because they are aware of something that we longs aren't aware of yet?

You could/might also think that they (shorts) may let the PPS rise, so that they have an opportunity to short again at a higher level, but wouldn't that be kinda risky, especially if there is a short squeeze or a buy out, ultimately triggering margin calls?.

 Just strategizing  if I should hold tight with my current position, or start loading when/if the shorts try to drive the price down in a last ditch effort.  - What are you going to do?

[dorr9352]

Hi Option,

Although I can understand your reason of concern, I believe your overthinking what may happen with PPS. Best off to relax a little bit, use the KISS method, and enjoy a gradual rise in PPS through to end of month and a greater PPS increase after that point. Granted there may be a slight pullback during week of expiration to a level depending on where Max pain is, but from now until then and thereafter I fully expect a positive increase in PPS. Will most likely go up to 66 -70 for next week to week and a half, then retreat to 62 area for week of expiration and then rise to 70 - 75 by end of month. The way I see it, all is good, and while I do not expect it to go straight up (barring unexpected news) I think its extremely favorable to increase positively through to end of month. We will probably start to see greater price swings each day this month than we have recently though.
Sit tight and be happy. Just my opinion, for what its worth.
Best to ya.

[dorr9352]

If it helps at all, I am comforted by the train of thought that the (shorts) or MM know how to make sufficient amount of money on a daily/weekly/monthly basis for them to be happy while riding the PPS up too! They don't have to just drive it down to make money. We're probably looking at the lowest entry point right now that there will be for quite awhile, if you have thoughts of putting in a little more. All things considered! Good luck to ya!

[geologydude]

What a Dilemma!  Over the next 5 weeks, you / I might expect the PPS to increase, but what if it starts to get driven down?  Is that a buying opportunity because the shorts are trying to artifically drive down the price so that they may cover (similiar to last weeks action).  Or, is it because they are aware of something that we longs aren't aware of yet?

You could/might also think that they (shorts) may let the PPS rise, so that they have an opportunity to short again at a higher level, but wouldn't that be kinda risky, especially if there is a short squeeze or a buy out, ultimately triggering margin calls?.

 Just strategizing  if I should hold tight with my current position, or start loading when/if the shorts try to drive the price down in a last ditch effort.  - What are you going to do?

Option, I am nearly fully loaded at this point, but am holding  some dry powder (10%) for a possible, last ditch, short effort to bring the PPS down to the mid fifties.  If it gradually goes up from here, that is fine, as there are other opportunities out there.

[jft310]

Let's look back at where IOC has been without a Super Major and without a deal and with confusion over the PNG DMO %. What happens with clarity??Or what I am saying is all the IOC price prints looking back will look dirt cheap when we get the clarity.Trying to predict human behavior before that certainty is shall we say HARD. I would guess a slow gradual drift up. The best result for a long would be for someone to put a lid on the stock price. A lid requires selling into the strength of the PPS by shorting or selling calls.That's BULLISH for an IOC long on March 3rd and after as the boys and girls cover that will take months for IOC to rise to where it will eventually end. IOC is stupid cheap.May get stupid expensive in a short squeeze.Look at Cove Energy with just one Super Major bidding with IOC we have JKM who must have a slice of this asset and 3-4 majors bidding. We go higher in time.

[admin]

Despite fear of sounding condescending, a few pointers here from Investing 101:

• Never put all your money in one stock
• Always leave some dry powder
• Use of margin is usually the no.1 killer
• IOC is a highly volatile stock
• Short-term stockprice movements are fairly, perhaps even largely random

Hope that helps, good luck

[Relker]

For me it is very encouraging that the short level increased from 10.8 to 11.5 M and the shareprice increased as well.This means that the shorters hardly are able to put a lid on the bottle. I am of the opinion that the short squeeze already started.

[sageo]

For me it is very encouraging that the short level increased from 10.8 to 11.5 M and the shareprice increased as well.This means that the shorters hardly are able to put a lid on the bottle. I am of the opinion that the short squeeze already started.

--

Relker  - Welcome-good to have you aboard. I told my wife Thursday after the market closed , that if we did not go down more than $2 on Friday, I would be very encouraged. Maybe we are at the start of "something good " about to happen! GLTY.

[kommonsents]

For me it is very encouraging that the short level increased from 10.8 to 11.5 M and the shareprice increased as well.This means that the shorters hardly are able to put a lid on the bottle. I am of the opinion that the short squeeze already started.

I agree that the recent market action along with the increase in short interest is quite bullish and very encouraging.

I think it is also important to realize that the stated short interest in no way actually depicts the sum total of actual net short interests when one takes into account that there are multiplle accounts being traded, multiple exchanges and circular trading, coupled with various hedging practices including options.

If the pps actually increased by $100, there would still be significant short interest in IOC, but that would not necessarily reflect actual data on the net position of the investors.  Something to keep in mind.

Then there is the possibility/probability that the pps is being pressured downwards or at least being held down by an entity that wants to keep the pps down to make their buy out offer look better.

Lots of moving parts, sometimes hard to keep track of.

[Optionray]

For me it is very encouraging that the short level increased from 10.8 to 11.5 M and the shareprice increased as well.This means that the shorters hardly are able to put a lid on the bottle. I am of the opinion that the short squeeze already started.

With that many shorts, If I was a holder of 2 million plus, I would think that I could trigger a short squeeze just about anytime.  However, I think I might be inclined to start one over the next few weeks.  Doing what the shorts do at times, planting the doubt in the opposing teams mind that someone knows something and they better cover.  I'd be scared if I was short.