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I advised to buy at $15.08 last month May 21 this year.
It's now $19, despite a share offering in the meantime.
Even in a depressed US mortgage market it's a winner as it simply helps others to streamline processes and cut costs, and shifting much of that to the cloud, very solid business model. Not cheap anymore, but should the mortgage market ever recover, it can go significantly higher still
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08-02-2012, 11:37 PM
(This post was last modified: 08-02-2012, 11:41 PM by admin.)
And it keeps on rising after stellar results, $24 now.
The graph is a true thing of beauty
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Disclosure: I am long ELLI. (More...)
Ellie Mae (ELLI) appears on track to produce excellent on target Q4 results. We estimate earnings (fully taxed) will more than double on a 50% sales gain. (10Q) Ellie Mae acquired its largest competitor (DataTrak) in 2011. Over the last year the company has been integrating the two software platforms to improve the technology, and to retain DataTrak's installed customer base. Those users now are shifting to Ellie Mae's "success-based pricing" model, which is easier to maintain than a traditional on-site software package. Updates are made automatically with cloud computing. That format also aligns the amount of money each customer pays Ellie Mae with the amount of money they earn from new mortgage generation. Average revenue per loan to Ellie Mae is $100-$110. Mortgage bankers generally charge $750-$1,000 per loan. The pipeline of new users has been amplified with direct sales, as well. Ellie Mae is in the process of doubling its sales force again, a program that should be finished by the end of March. Existing customers also are adding more seats. That backlog of active users virtually ensures that revenue growth will be maintained at above average rates even if the U.S. economy stumbles next year. [Read on here]
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Applications for U.S. home mortgages rose for a second straight week following three weeks of declines, data from an industry group showed on Wednesday.
The Mortgage Bankers Association said its seasonally adjusted index of mortgage application activity, which includes both refinancing and home purchase demand, surged 15.2 percent in the week ended Jan 11.
The index of refinancing applications jumped 15.3 percent, while the seasonally adjusted purchase index increased 12.9 percent to the highest level since April 2011.
The refinance share of total mortgage activity held steady at 82 percent of applications.
Fixed 30-year mortgage rates were flat at an average 3.61 percent after rising from 3.52 percent the week before last. It was the highest level since early November.
The survey covers over 75 percent of U.S. retail residential mortgage applications, according to MBA.
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1/29/2013: A mighty, week long sell off that took it from 28 to 20.50. It's now oversold, and unless there are problems we're not aware off, the stock should stabilize pretty soon. The selloff was on an analyst downgrade, basically arguing growth was slowing for the company, so a bit of an Apple moment here. Most analysts seem to disagree and the 14th of Feb, we have figures, and this could all be a storm in a teacup. We think it's a pretty good buy here at $20.50
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And they have quite a history of beating analyst expectations:
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ae?s=ELLI+Analyst+Estimates
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'admin' pid='16784' datel Wrote:1/29/2013: A mighty, week long sell off that took it from 28 to 20.50. It's now oversold, and unless there are problems we're not aware off, the stock should stabilize pretty soon. The selloff was on an analyst downgrade, basically arguing growth was slowing for the company, so a bit of an Apple moment here. Most analysts seem to disagree and the 14th of Feb, we have figures, and this could all be a storm in a teacup. We think it's a pretty good buy here at $20.50
It also looks like a fair number of insiders filed to sell or sold Since Jan 3rd.
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Not sure whether to read too much into that, these sales are fairly constant and took place even when the stock price was rising very profoundly
http://www.insider-monitor.com/trading/cik1122388.html
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Also, today (so far) is the eight day in a row it's down, it is already in oversold territory, I don't think this has been caused by insider sales that went on since 2005, unless the market has suddenly woken up by that, which seems unlikely to me. There might be something into William Blair's analysis that growth is slowing, jury is out on that one, none of the other analists have made similar remarks. Blair argued that:
- Conversion to their SAAS software is slowing
- Refinancing is slowing down more than new mortgage business.
Well, there could be something in that, we'll know on Feb 14. But this is far from sure, and the stock has already sold off 30% in 8 trading sessions consecutively, so I think it's worth the risk here:
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I noticed the turn this AM an I bought some. So far so good. Thanks for the info.
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