Winning Bidder?!

[trans]

TOT it is beyond a reasonable doubt - barring a buy-out by an NOC.

Here's why:

IOC will not work with Shell.

XOM will not build new plant in Gulf, only wants feed-stock and their plan whould be to pipeline all gas to PNG LNG and add multiple trains there - Kavo will say no way Jose!

CVX may come in as an investor as their hands are full with Aussie projects.

That leaves TOT.

TOT/OSH leases surround IOC's leases and TOT is going to have an LNG project in PNG - if they can find the gas.  Best time for new LNG supply is now.

TOT needs 4 Ts gas now, they will buy 4Ts from Idry gas from IOC for $2.8/Mcf and they will build Gulf LNG as they see fit, Phase I.  They will also Operate IOC's EWC scheme up to 8 MTPA as we come in as 'phase II & III'  JKM will be our only partner/OTer.  Our phases could be running prior to Phase I.  IOC will also sell 4T's dry gas to XOM for their expansion @ $3/M.

TOT needs those 4 T's for a 4Mtpa plant for 20 yrs.  Their plan will be to feed it with future success in their own leases.  TOT at this point is like XOM, have a plant, have expansion plans need feedstock.  IOC will drill away with PRE and will have 4-6 Ts in Tri and who knows how many more nearby.

If TOT or XOM cannot competitively feed their own plants they will be fed by IOC's fields.

IOC wil have 8 Mtpa plant and feed another 8 - 12 Mtpa production within 4 yrs.

Use or Flushski.

All info available on philstar.com

Of course, all bets off barring takeover attempts.

Tree, that sounds like the mother lode for IOC....  wowser!

[dorr9352]

Perfect plan! If you dont already work with Phil, you should. If this plan is not what they are already doing, they should be! Thanks Tree. Very impressive. I had a good feeling about Total so I voted for them also, but after you explain things this way and put it all together, sounds overwhelmingly like the best option for all.

[cybersssss]

Yowser Tree.... You have quite the imagination. Agreed that Total makes obvious sense. Great Job! This deal puts quite the value on IOC.

What do you mean by Total needing the dry gas? They do not have an LNG plant as of yet so they need that first and of course IOC will need a CSP prior to anything being done.

[ltinvest]

With a number of additional votes cast, 87% feel it will be JKM, Total, or Exxon. I say Tree, you made an outstanding case for Total. While I personally believe JKM will be our partner based on their historical involvement in the project, domestic needs, worldwide activity and NEC approval of using a contract operator on November 15th amongst other things, you can make a compelling case or all 3. We shall know soon!