Mythical "Short Squeeze" about to visit IOC land ?

[johnwgrant]

From our dip down to $65 or so, we are pushing towards $80/share...

When do the shorts cry uncle ?

[Palm]

Not sure they will for a while but we may see SOME covering similar to what we saw last year when we shot to $99. The technical has got us right on the verge of the "golden cross" which is a very bullish indicator. If you look back at IOC's history, whenever we have had this except for one short run we have had several months of upward pps movement. We are right at the crux

[admin]

The shorts, or those that matter, clearly expect a bad deal (low price) and/or a deal full of contingencies, so that they can claim it's not really a deal at all.

I think they need both to get their "get out of jail" card.

If they get a bad deal with few contingencies, the whole narrative that IOC doesn't have what it says, is about to bust etc. etc. falls apart, and there will be a project, derisking much of the stock (unless the deal is sub 50cents/mcf, but I don't expect that).

If there is a good deal with contingencies, they'll short on hope. Hope that these contingencies will not be met, while the signing of the deal clearly shows intent. Good luck to that. I would say in this case, there are better shorts out there, but that's just me.

We're off to the races if we get a good deal with few contingencies. They clearly don't expect that.

Then there is the take-over "risk"

Having seen people throw all sorts of stuff lately, I think if you ask them now, is InterOil a good short candidate, most of them would answer no in an honest moment.

Too bad many of them don't seem to have many of these honest moments..

[tarulestheday]

The spike to $99 (Sept. 14th) was very deceiving as it was on only 2200 shares and looked like a forced buyin.

The point is the shorts have never really been tested over $80 on anything other than a short term basis. But that might be about to change.

[Palm]

"Having seen people throw all sorts of stuff lately.."

Isn't that the truth? One of the lowest is the recent attack on Byker's character. Here's a guy that came onboard over 16 years ago and he was asked to help them raise money for needed construction projects and to establish a healthy endowment fund. When you look at the results, he did more than they asked. In the end a plan they had all agreed to didn't work out due to the economy in Michigan, lower projected enrollments etc. The plan was to keep from having the operating budget be burdened by debt payments and the plan worked until the downturn and market crash. It was risky, but worked as they tried to build assets and invest funds to attempt to take care of debt payments. To insinuate that there was a "hidden" plan for this and try and put the blame on Byker is pretty low. I've looked at the annual public filings of Cavin and there was full disclosure of all assets, investments and debt and all the leadership had to attest that they had reviewed the filings and all contained in them.

The new president comes in and of course does due diligence, lets the public know that changes are being made, things will be more transparent, etc., but in the end debt is not out of hand and plans are in place to get the debt payments made. The "top financial officer" who was vice president for administration, finance and information services, stepped down (I'm sure under pressure and out of need) and overall Byker left a very good legacy behind and like many colleges and institutions across the country, the administration learned a lesson (as stated by the current president).

The character assassination by shorts of target company CEOs and BOD chairs, etc is pretty vicious and of course for the most part protected by free speech. But it's pretty desperate and cowardly.

[Putncalls]

I don't know how they can cover with current volume vs price moves. I guess they can do a "giant stradle" but that only works for so long.

[cybersssss]

This is no short squeeze. Some buyer is sopping up a lot of shares.

You will know when there is a short squeeze. It will bring a BIG smile to your faces. Its violent and its fast. It will happen soon.

[Putncalls]

Why would PRE offer IOC 2,60$/MCF if some other company could pay much less? I really don't see how a person holding a short position could hope for a "crummey offer"?

[trans]

This is no short squeeze. Some buyer is sopping up a lot of shares. You will know when there is a short squeeze. It will bring a BIG smile to your faces. Its violent and its fast. It will happen soon.

A year chart (using  weekly closing ) shows the 80-84 area for the past 3 years has a massive (and technically beautiful, imo) rising wedge that that area as the real breakout higher in IOC that should result in a major upthrust.  That's where the short squeeze (very rare, genuine ones,) can develop.  One like Volkswagen.....get the idea, that breakout is the shorts real panic button, imo....  IOC is now on the fourth try to test that sideways barrier,  fourth tries almost always succeed, imo.

[trans]

make that a 5 year chart, sorry