1st 30 down........

[SamAdams]

"That is the fact. It is not IOC's fault people mis-read what they carefully place in PR's. PR's are not taken lightly and the statement you hang your emotions was NOT the implication the PR meant to state." Vee vill take as long as vee like! And you vill like it! Dummkoph!

I would be careful.  This is a topic where IOC has been their own worst enemy.  Reference the Nov. 16th, 2012 press release where they say they anticipate concluding a sell down in the "coming weeks".  I agree with elkerslick on his interpretation as well as Ebsters.  They were very clear.  Meet and select partner in March.  They did not , in their defense,  say announce.  I have met Phil many times so I understand how this happens at times.  That being said, I believe the partner has been selected and we have been waiting on paperwork for at least a week now.  I believe the company had meetings with the govt. late last week and now believe it related to Duma/Petromi/NPCP.  I agree with Tree that perhaps the pre-approved bidders had some demands of their own which could have included the removal of Petromin and reassurances of legal rights, licenses etc.   final asurances given, the papers can be returned.  Does Shell now make their last ditch effort?

[sfiaes]

Sam,

Perhaps I wasn't clear: the quotation was from Herr Tree.

The German accent and sarcasm was from me. I'm with ellerslick on this.

[SamAdams]

My apologies.  We all see the finish line and are rooting for the good guys.  Would be nice for them to surprise on the "early" side.  A Monday morning announcement, in any of the coming weeks, would crush the shorts.

[Movieguy]

From what I hear, Ebster and Sam are right. A deal is done. The announcement is being held up by matters between the three governments.

[SamAdams]

So I dont believe negotiations are held up per se between governments. When IOC receives the signed docs back, they will announce the deal, with a proper heads up to PNG. IMO, this is less than 24 hours as IOC knows it will leak. That said, why would JKM rush the paperwork back to IOC right before their PMs met? What if it didn't go well? Lots of $ at stake here. As we already noted, there could have been some pre-conditions as well relating to Petromin and other legal issues. It appears all went well so hopefully the deck is cleared.

[Palm]

The Petromin thing goes deeper than many realize. At some point soon it will be clear. Can't give clear bids when the water is muddy

[SamAdams]

I agree Palm and perhaps this was already considered when bids were given. Bringing the hammer down releases the Krakken( deal docs).

[Palm]

Was not considered when bids given. Why was Kalinoe's name on the JAPEX agreement but he did not sign it. He signed the one in 2010. Not this time. He get the flu last minute on such an important event?

[SamAdams]

Hmmm. Don't have an answer for that. Let me dig some.

[ellerslick]

Feb. 28:

 ....."and we're going to know a lot more over the next 30 and 60 days."

Update to:   ...."and we're going to know even a lot more over the next 30 days."

Sure looks like moving parts slowed, stopped and even we could see them this week.

The JP visit tipped the end of the bid process 1st domino.

O'Neill's ensuing pumping of PNG to JP industry and PM and the re-signing of JAPEX/Petromin MOU for E/A development and  coming reorganization of Petromin were huge developments.

Thais 'gas concessions' and 'promise their billions in investment would be welcome in PNG' likely define a consortium.

Will it be done in the next 30 days??

No one knows that answer.  If IOC negotiatiors and BoD don't know the outcome yet, how does anyone think the short's and their lamer by the day arguments have any insight into true internal bid dynamics??

Answer:  They don't and they are spewing B.S.  (or bullocks as we learned this week as a brittish equivalent)

So yes, Phil was right, he was likely off script when speaking this thought outloud, but he was right.  I bet anyone here that IOC does in fact know much more now after 30 days from bid openings than they did the day before bid openings at the Feb. 28 CC.

The end of the string may be in sight.  Where is that yardstick???

So much for this public statement

“Our board intends to meet our advisors during March for the purpose of evaluating the proposals received and selecting our partner for the development of the LNG project.

Kinda wierd how people view things differently.  I read that statement initially as the Bod's purpose to meet was evaluate and select partner.  Two separate events is how I took it.  Bod met, we await selection.

You took it, BoD will meet and at that meeting will select a winner.  Who knows?  Maybe they did.  If you've been sober these last couple of weeks even you cannot deny the progress made with known bidders,  JP/Thai, which by alrights may be required housekeeping prior to a winner announced.

You act is if IOC can unilaterally  announce a deal anytime they please.

Then such a statement should not be made if a lot of housekeeping is needed. I didn't make the statement, IOC made the statement.  They didn't say announce a partner I have to admit.  For the average Joe, the statement would have inferred that we are going to get it done in March. 58% of the board guessed it would be done in this time frame (this has since gone down because people are voting late, not so fast buckos) 19 days since the board met. That is a lot of time for back and forth, paperwork, final loose ends, govt tinkering, more investment banker time at the pool. It will be interesting to see how long it actually takes.

'Then such a statement should not be made if a lot of housekeeping is needed. I didn't make the statement, IOC made the statement. '

IOC made the statement, it came off as not intended because 58% of the average Joe's thought like you did!  IOC subsequently clarified the statement to bisect the BoD bid review from the partner selection process. That is the fact.  It is not IOC's fault people mis-read what they carefully place in PR's.  PR's are not taken lightly and the statement you hang your emotions was NOT the implication the PR meant to state.  They know people hang on every word they put out and sure it could have been clearer, initialy.  But, IOC did clear it up subsequently twice.   People whining on the MB of pps in low 50s in Dec. should be joyous now happy on the MB, but that is not the case.  Nothing personal, but we need to keep a grip on reality so we can remain sane.

Just finishing negotiations and signed agreements with a 100 billion plus market cap company. Very complex with conference calls almost every day.  It took 3 weeks but we don't have investment advisors or countries to contend with to make it happen.  We did a 50 billion plus company here in the Pacific Northwest and finished it all in a month with even more complexity.

From pps of 50 to 70 no complaints.  My story is a little different. My son bought in almost 3 years ago to help with a down payment on a house.  He got in at $72 and sold at a loss in January.  He needed the money.  My mother-in-law got in at the same time.  I told her this was a moderate speculation but when it hit $40 and $50 over the years I had to talk her out of selling, She has 7000 shares of MMM and owns other blue chip dividend stocks.  She is hanging in there but my stock picking is suspect. I was updating my wife last week on IOC and she said, "Just let me know when the deal is finally done, I don't want anymore updates.  That was worth a laugh and I am in from the $30's to $70.  I bought a long option for my son, he is getting rewarded for that 2 years and 9 months.

My grip on reality is very good thanks.  I do reserve the right to sleep with one eye open until the deal is done.