Alert this is a RUMOR!

[Dmarque]

Some time ago management was asked how much access Shell has had to information through Petromin. The answer was that because they were brought in in the capacity they were the have seen all or most all of what others will have seen.

Thanks P.....

m

But to Dmarques insight, working with the IBs would have given them  some "feel" as to where winning bids needed to be versus the data they had already gathered. Perhaps they are the  Dukes and they let  Mr. Valentine set the price.

AND .....Served by Mr. Appling with "Payne" administered to the shorts!  Nix on Shell....we will see the Green without those muck rakers because WE hold all the "Cards".....

Go State....Go Big Ten!!

In the end, the Dukes got what was coming to them as did Clarence Beaks(Duma).  Picture it, "where's beaks?  Beaks?...."

Beaks:......."wishing" someone would take the duck tape off his mouth so he could speak sweet nothings to his newly found girlfriend...... ;- )

[SamAdams]

Although I'm no longer in the 'rumor business' but as far as I know, Duma had nothing to do with the ads and wasn't pleased with them, to put it mildly.

Agreed,  but project Zebra? That is the analogue to the crops report.

[ArtM72]

I'll go with Palm's interpretation. Shell had all the information for bidding without signing the CA so whether they did or not is of little consequence. If there is something extraordinary going on it may be that Shell, realizing Petromin is being dismantled along with their controlling access to PNG's hydrocarbons, is now mounting a takeover bid for IOC.

BTW, I think the recent talks with the Thais and the Japanese suggest the bid for E/A will be closer to $3 than $2. Add $5 for LNG processing and transportation and those countries have $8 gas (and competitive once again with North American industries). They couldn't let that opportunity get away.

[SamAdams]

And perhaps the ads were Kalinoe's  flu that Palm referred to.  Hopefully a Petromun restructuring is not the source of any delays.

[SamAdams]

I'll go with Palm's interpretation. Shell had all the information for bidding without signing the CA so whether they did or not is of little consequence. If there is something extraordinary going on it may be that Shell, realizing Petromin is being dismantled along with their controlling access to PNG's hydrocarbons, is now mounting a takeover bid for IOC. BTW, I think the recent talks with the Thais and the Japanese suggest the bid for E/A will be closer to $3 than $2. Add $5 for LNG processing and transportation and those countries have $8 gas (and competitive once again with North American industries). They couldn't let that opportunity get away.

Art, I agree.  I think Dmarques point was aside from the data, was there an advantage in bidding and trying to glean where the market was for the assets.  Were there four bidders at $1.50 and one at $2.50 or are all the bids $2+.  I would assume Shell would bid low, try to discern the market and then go hostile if they lose with the lowest bid possible to get IOC.  Why go hostile at $250 PPS in a takeout if the best offer in the bid process is $1.50 per mcf.   If the bids are $3+ then perhaps the deal is too rich for she'll ( but great for us).  I think we are on the same page here.

[CesiumFormate]

JFT,
I have a great deal of respect for all of your input. If I look at your track record over the past six months it has been impeccable. However, this whole argument/rumor that Shell would consider a takeover if they are not the winning bidder does not make sense based on the rest of what we appear to be hearing. First of all, it appears that Shell and Petromin have been all but kicked to the curb. If this is true that Shell has been pushed out, they would never be an approved bidder, and they would have nothing to gain by taking over Interoil. Why? Interoil's development agreement expires at the end of June unless extended by the government. If Interoil is bought out before the development agreement is completed, then all PNG has to do is to let the application expire and Shell would have nothing except Triceratops and the unexplored leases. They will need to find a constructive way to move forward in working with the government. The PNG government can take Elk/Antelope after the development agreement expires, and leave Shell to negotiate the rest with the PNG government. At even $125 per share this would cost Shell about $6 billion. There is no reason it would make any sense for them to put that much money at risk with a government that no longer wants to deal with them. Also, it is not uncommon in partnership agreements of this type, or a Letter of Intent to Parter, to put in a safety in case of change of control that would be very expensive if IOC was bought out before a deal was completed. If I were IOC, the best poison pill would be a very large cash payment due to the partners if IOC is bought out in a hostile basis.

Second, the only way I see Shell getting in is once everyone is legally committed - PNG and Partners. Once that happens then Shell is in a much less risky position to buy IOC, and I will guarantee you that $125 per share will not touch it!

MHO is that since the impact survey is complete, that we get the big bang with an announcement. I think we get a partner, sell down, and FID all in one. An being consistent with my post over six months ago, I think we get early cash flow connecting to the Exxon Tee. I have nothing to base this on except pure strategy and the way I would structure the deal if IOC and O'Neill are in-sync, which it appears they are.

[jft310]

I used the word RUMOR because I can't verify this story.I can see both sides of the arguements true or not. I thought it would get the minds thinkin and it did. Thanks for everyones feedback we all think a bit different and thats we share. Odds Shell is a bidder seem quite high. Philstar.com needs new batteries Tree. Can ya help.

[Tree]

JFT, I have a great deal of respect for all of your input. If I look at your track record over the past six months it has been impeccable. However, this whole argument/rumor that Shell would consider a takeover if they are not the winning bidder does not make sense based on the rest of what we appear to be hearing. First of all, it appears that Shell and Petromin have been all but kicked to the curb. If this is true that Shell has been pushed out, they would never be an approved bidder, and they would have nothing to gain by taking over Interoil. Why? Interoil's development agreement expires at the end of June unless extended by the government. If Interoil is bought out before the development agreement is completed, then all PNG has to do is to let the application expire and Shell would have nothing except Triceratops and the unexplored leases. They will need to find a constructive way to move forward in working with the government. The PNG government can take Elk/Antelope after the development agreement expires, and leave Shell to negotiate the rest with the PNG government. At even $125 per share this would cost Shell about $6 billion. There is no reason it would make any sense for them to put that much money at risk with a government that no longer wants to deal with them. Also, it is not uncommon in partnership agreements of this type, or a Letter of Intent to Parter, to put in a safety in case of change of control that would be very expensive if IOC was bought out before a deal was completed. If I were IOC, the best poison pill would be a very large cash payment due to the partners if IOC is bought out in a hostile basis. Second, the only way I see Shell getting in is once everyone is legally committed - PNG and Partners. Once that happens then Shell is in a much less risky position to buy IOC, and I will guarantee you that $125 per share will not touch it! MHO is that since the impact survey is complete, that we get the big bang with an announcement. I think we get a partner, sell down, and FID all in one. An being consistent with my post over six months ago, I think we get early cash flow connecting to the Exxon Tee. I have nothing to base this on except pure strategy and the way I would structure the deal if IOC and O'Neill are in-sync, which it appears they are.

Hey CF,

Couple of things to consider.

1)  2009 PA will not expire or be used as a hammer by PNG to prevent conclusion to SD/edvelopment or sell-out process.

2)  If Shell is a bidder, they most likely are aligned with CNOOC or Sinopec. Shell is CH preferred Operator and these CH Co's have been in bids fr E/A stakes for almost 4 yrs.  They are in the mix here somewhere.

3) RDS had signed CA's.

 Apr. 2012 Phil:

"In regards to Shell or other LNG partners, they are all under confidentiality agreements and we cannot talk about the discussions," Mulacek said."

And don't forget what RDS CFO/CEO said either regarding negotiations:

http://shareholdersunite.com/mybb/showth...p?tid=1315

This is likely not real open-ended at this point.  JAPEX/MOU is the big deal of 2013.