Election Schedule; announcement possible?

[ValueSleuth]

Folks,

I have no expectations on who the winning bidder(s) could be and really couldn't care less when the announcement is made.

Why does it appear that there is a lot of over-thinking going on here?

Collin repeatedly stated that these deals are very complex, with a lot of parties involved. Look how long it has taken to get the process this far along from the time the IBs were engaged -- 9 months so far. My suspicion is that there's still negotiating going on over many variables. After that, there's a lot of documentation needed along with government consultation, which takes a NEW government, which will likely exclude William Duma (which takes care of the "credit" problem).

An announcement before mid-August would be a pleasant surprise, but not change anything with respect to my IOC investment approach or the ultimate valuation obtained.

I'll stick with the "later, later, rather than sooner" timing I gave some weeks ago, and I wouldn't be surprised if we don't hear anything until September or later.

Let's just enjoy the ride.

VS

[Justin94360]

VS I have been looking at other 'comparables' such as Cove Energy and GKP to see how their stock behaved in the run up to big announcements. In these instances both had a long and reasonably consistent run up of 4-6 months before their respective huge gap up. Cove tripled in the run up then doubled after announcement and GKP doubled in the run up and then doubled again after. I am thinking/hoping we are now in that phase with IOC which would fit nicely with your theory. Perfect scenario is we move nicely to a price of $100+ pre deal announcement then gap up massively from there once everything is signed and announced.

Trans usually has good input on these situations.

[Spartina]

A triple double. Love the sound of that Justin. Wise words VS - enjoy the ride, we all know at this stage what is going to happen, not if but when. Always love to hear from the 2 two cool cats. Ladies and gentlemen, this is about to get very exciting.

[trans]

Justin, I would agree we likely have two phases of trading in IOC here. First, between here and getting positioned near all time highs in the low 80's. Second, the upside penetration of those all time highs, which should set off quite dynamic action. Right now, we're starting to work the first phase. IOC needs some time to properly position to break from the first to second phase (all time highs), so I'm with you and will wait to see the trading behavior develop somewhat further here up to those highs. It i rate for a stock to make early bull all time highs without eventually making further new highs in the next 2-3 years. I expect new all time highs somewhere ahead.

[Palm]

VS, I understand what you are saying and I also will not really expect a major announcement until Sept, and that's how I'm playing my investment. But the door was left open for a "possible" announcement depending on bidders desires/needs. We were totally surprised by the PRE deal, yet we were on to something when the pace of drilling was so fast and almost frantic and suspected that there must be a reason they were so anxious to get to the bottom of that hole. Now we know, they were working on the PRE deal and trying to establish value for the PRL 15 bids.

Understanding the elections process is important for several reasons if nothing else than just getting a better understanding of the workings of PNG as a country. The pps has suddenly popped after OE expiration and there is a reason for that (or reasons). If people are convinced no major announcement is coming until September, why would pps be headed up so quickly right now? If anything it should be headed the other way in anticipation of a June 30 disappointment. Big buyers like RC who believe Sept is the time and are confident in that would be OK with PPS dropping so they can accumulate at lower pps and just support the pps until the time is right and they make more when the announcement is made.

When RC stopped buying just befor OE week many said he had his belly full and would either not buy more or wait until closer to the end of the elections to buy more. Some of us predicted otherwise; that he would let GS work down the price from the high 60s to the max pain level of $60, then start buying again. That's esactly what he has done, and now pps is rocketing. If he is wanting to get to around 20% ownership I have calculated that at his 10-15% of daily volume and allowing for the OE "break" he will be near 20% somewhere around June 30 or early July. Why would he do that if he didn't expect something substantial has a good chance of happening by then? Obviously he does not know everything (and can't), but he probably knows a little more than we do.

So it's a fun game to play while we wait. Part of being a paranoid investor in IOC, and part of learning how story stocks like IOC work in this very crazy world of energy, something wars are fought over and people will do just about anything to influence and own. I've never seen anything like it and want to learn as much as possible for that next story stock.

Not arguing or saying I know any more than you because your points are very valid. Just trying to figure things out and be ready should a day come where pps rockets before we really expect it to and plan what the best move is at the time.

GLTA

[oilmd9]

I wonder if any partial election results will leak out early. In any regard it is certainly enjoyable watching a squeeze begin. Appreciate all the DD done by board members here. Certainly had a great time in Grand Rapids and thanks again to Tusker and Iluvioc as hosts at the Spinaker.

[davidhmtk]

I wouldn't be surprised if the terms of the deal with the gov't were renegotiated, which would extend the announcement date. I see the gov't asking for cash on deal signing to cover this year's budget gap and IOC getting extensions on the drilling deadlines.

[Justin94360]

I believe we will have a very good indication of election results within a couple of weeks. I think the writs returning so late in July is because usually it takes them that long to pull a majority coalition together. Don't think that will be the case this time as O'Neil/Namah with a hadful of independents (offered jobs in the cabinet to join the coalition) will be enough to form the new govt.

[Palm]

Very interesting to read how all this is to work. For instance, according to the voting schedules some places have one day of voting (which makes the most sense), and others a week. Most places will have voted by the end of next week and some go until July 3 with a straggler or 2 going to July 6. These ballot boxes have as much security as possible around them and get flown by heli back to the tallying center. Will be a relief to have this over with and hopefully have a government that will move PNG forward. Most important for us will be that those in leadership positions be acceptable to make companies and countries that want to invest in PNG comfortable. Per Sir Rabbie last week whomever is PM will approve the IOC project. Just a matter of who end up on NEC, DPE, etc. The land of surprises will probably continue to live up to its reputation a few more times yet.

[Tree]

And to top it off palmtokoil, things are running quite smoothly prepping The Highlands for election day this Sat. Just takes a few Aussie Helicopters, Aussie and NZ forces, hundreds of Police and PNG Defense Forces and 22 deaths during the campaign weeks, but yeah, things are running smoothly to date.

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PNG police say preparations for elections in Highlands region going well
Posted at 23:22 on 20 June, 2012 UTC
Police in Papua New Guinea say preparations for the general election in the Highlands region have gone well.
Most of the Highlands provinces will go to the polls in the first week of the country’s two-week polling schedule which begins on Saturday.
Johnny Blades reports from PNG
“The Highlands Police Commander Teddy Tei says all ballot boxes required for the seven Highlands provinces are on the ground ready to be airlifted to polling stations. Australian helicopters will help with this task. First up for the polling process are Southern Highlands and the newly created Hela province, both pinpointed by the police as high risk areas. Hundreds of PNG police and defence force personnel are in these provinces to provide security around the election, with both New Zealand and Australian military supplying logistical support. The Commissioner says the security preparedness is as good as it can be. Local media says police have reported 22 deaths in the Highlands over the four-week campaign period to date.”