Testing Assumptions

[hudsojo]

I recently did some serious homework on another company and was completely comfortable with the investment when it blew up and I lost a lot of money in an instant.  As a result, I’m going back and retesting my assumptions on ALL of the companies I’m invested in and would like to do so with IOC as well.

Let me start off by saying I’ve been long IOC for a little over a year and gotten a great return on my investment between the stock and selling the calls.  I honestly believe IOC will be successful and we’ll get the big announcement sometime in the next month or so.  But I want to go back and retest my assumptions and make sure I’m not just drinking the cool aid I want so desperately to be correct.

Here’s my question:  Who do you think has articulated  the most substantive bear case for IOC and where can I find it?  Does anyone have a relatively timely report from one of the big brokerage houses (I looked on SHU and only found the favorable ones – maybe I missed it) that gives a different spin?  Also, please don’t suggest going to Yahoo for the bear case.  Those people are nuts and it’s a complete waste of time.

Again, I’m not trying to sew doubt, FUD or anything else.  Just trying to challenge my strong belief in IOC and make sure my assumptions are solid.  I've read Gefvert and the others at SA and didn't find them satisfactorily substantive. Hopefully you know of something else.

Many thanks,

hudsojo

[admin]

To my knowledge, such a bear case hasn't been formulated in public, apart from some musings by Tilson, but he isn't a big player and these musings came down to the familiar "years of promise" and him believing they "don't have what they say they have," which completely passes the info that three different resource vetting companies have stated opinions on E/A.

There used to be Ross Smith Energy consulting, which argued that the geological model IOC was using wasn't correct. They argued that there isn't a reef, but they were never heard from again after Antelope1 hit the top of the reef which, in so many words, they had to admit.

Apart from the resource issue, which I'm certain about it's nonsense, the shorts have a bewildering array of ever shifting arguments, which for me is prima facie evidence that they really don't have all that much, let alone any 'killer' argument.

There are some risks of course, but I really doubt the risks amount to a coherent short case, and I'm expressing myself rather mildly here.

I think bonkthegrups is probably the most eloquent of the sceptics, and as far as I know his main point amounts to valuation issues. I have no problem with that, it's what makes a market, and we'll see who's right on that.

[jft310]

I think the shorts in reality know IOC has the assets and will monetize them. Their bet has been on WHEN will IOC monetize them??Today they are betting on more delays and THIS time we are gonna catch em short up to their eyeballs.

[Getitrt2]

hud, you said with respect to reports from "big brokerage houses" you've only found the favorable ones; I'm pretty sure that is because there are none that are not favorable, including the most recent from Westlake Securities, an extremely conprehensive report.

[bertl05]

Hey whats up Tjcharlote? Long time no hear. Sorry to hear you got blown up on that idea. IOC is real though. If you dont sell on the fake out sell offs you willdo fine and recover the loss you have on the stock you got punked on. You have mr email....feel free to contact me....be well TJ

[hudsojo]

This is one of the better reads (actually a rebuttal to the shorts) I've found.  Also, a lot of great information in the "responses" afterwards.

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1210761-weak-short-arguments-further-support-the-long-case-for-interoil

hudsojo

[jft310]

Hud- yes Seeking Alpha Treasure Hunter is a hedge Fund Manager in LA . He has good contacts at IOC and writes quite well. He is a lawyer by training. He like others get the guts right. I believe he is quite bullish still. He posts on this Board as Doublebagger and has posted in a poll here he thinks IOC monetizes its assets the end of April. Seems like a good guess at this time.

[IOCHUHU]

You could always call Whitney Tilson on his cell (646) 258-0687. He recently posted it in his letter to clients and encouraged people to call him with any questions.

http://touch.valuewalk.com/valuewalk/?re...56709852dc