The market that matters is of LNG producers and LNG importers.
IOC's project became 'Real to buyers of LNG' as IOC defined their project with Mitsui/EWC/Flex/SHI. That is why LNG buyers, niche buyers, were willing to pay premium pricing signed. The wisdom of expansion in 500,000tpa increments made expansion easier and flexible.
Gulf LNG SD has been 'Real to the LNG Producers' since IB's/IOC received go-ahead approval from O'Neill mid-Nov. 2012 and there are SM's and JKM and an NOC negotiating, sweetening their bids and offering incentives to PNG Gov't.
There is no doubt in the resource except for how much excess gas will be found in PRL 15 which dictates train expansion.
The other market, the stock market, will view IOC's project as 'Real' at SD announcement and more so at FID and ultimately upon annual cash-flows in excess of IOC's current market cap. And there are all the other coming discoveries which will not be 'stranded' and will then be valued multiples of where we trade today.
That original Mitsui/EWC/Flex/SHI project was real and that project had full support of PNG Gov't. IOC is loyal to their partners and this scheme is still viable and an option. Will it be the winner? Surely not in the initial plant. Something similiar may though, with a SM nameplate. Any way one counts, you can still easily come up with 6 qualified bidders bidding still and likely 5 of these will not go with IOC's original EWC scheme. The winner will choose the scheme and the scheme best for PNG will be selected and be endorsed by O'Neill/NEC. IOC is on record as stating such and that all options are acceptable.
The project has reached the inevitable stage. There is competetive bidding and noone wants to lose.
