Why retire April 30?

[ArtM72]

Slick -

You know darn well all of us here are speculating as to why the delay and what is happening in the negotiations. There have been precious few (actually no) leaks in this process, but interestingly no one involved, be they with the government, IOC or the energy companies has walked away from this resource calling it a sham.

Now just what do you think is happening and what are the dots that lead you along that line of reasoning? You might just as well put your best out there on the line. If you think this is all a sham, then I'm sure all here would like to hear the thesis.

[ellerslick]

Slick - You know darn well all of us here are speculating as to why the delay and what is happening in the negotiations. There have been precious few (actually no) leaks in this process, but interestingly no one involved, be they with the government, IOC or the energy companies has walked away from this resource calling it a sham. Now just what do you think is happening and what are the dots that lead you along that line of reasoning? You might just as well put your best out there on the line. If you think this is all a sham, then I'm sure all here would like to hear the thesis.

I don't know if it is all speculation, true this has been an exceedingly tight process. I am a little shocked that we don't have more leaks. I like most have no clue what's going on but never believed it was a sham.  Hoping that a little tweeking is all that is needed before an announcement.

[kommonsents]

Perhaps PNG is taking this opportunity to renegotiate some terms on PNG LNG with Exxon before they give their blessing on the SD with IOC.

[jft310]

KOMMOM-I wonder if you are on to something. Could or would the PNG gov't change the terms for the 3rd and 4th trains. Exxon certainly is not going away. Especially with some relatively cheap IOC NG. They can afford to pay their fair share.

[SamAdams]

I believe there are at least two bids that are very different in structure.  I don't think it's an apples to apples comparison where $0.05 per mcf makes one necessarily better than the other.  If there was one clear "best" bid, we would be done.  I think we have  at least two very good bids and this may mean that while IOC picks the winner, they need to ensure the govt. is on board due to very different project structures.  I think bidders have enhanced original offers but they won't do it forever, and we may be at that point now.   There will be no uncertainty when announced, which I think can be any day.

[ltinvest]

Sam, I think you are spot on. The bids are not apples to apples and there are many moving parts. This part I can confirm! And, the pot is getting sweetened.

[SamAdams]

So I think johngrant might be on to something.  At some point after the Feb. 28th call, I now believe Phil committed to retiring.  Was it a promise to Mitsui or just the realization that if the BoD moved in a certain direction he would retire.  Perhaps it was simply the fact he would not be interested in managing the new IOC and his skills were best used elsewhere.  Perhaps he would not be interested in working with certain bidders.  He may have thought it would all be done by April 30th.  Phil does shoot from the hip.  His announcing the imminent spudding of Elk-3 is evidence of his belief that a partner was close and as well as his shooting from the hip.  What may have changed in Mid April is enhanced bids.  What kommonsents has suggested could have also protracted negotiations and would make sense to me.  A board meeting which narrowed the field to 2 or eliminated Phils favored path then triggered the legal disclosure of his planned retirement.  This is a bit different than an emotional retirement and would be consistent with no Board level divisions.  This as best as I can figure it out logically, though still a bit confounding.  But what is IOC without curve balls.  This will not affect a deal.  New CEO won't affect deal eithe, as this is a board level decision.  Kudos to Kommonsents for some original thinking.  That's what makes SHU valuable.