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New PM urged alliance. JKM teams PTB. Above question consortium.
Three bidders say 'we will not be outbid'. CEO retirement known Nov 12. EOM fanfare was announcement. New CEO choice made, ongoing compensation negotiation. Named post transaction - no before. Big Asian name. Interoil should not exist. Stronger transaction resulting from extending bid rounds. Strongest transaction only chance IOC survive. Calculated ongoing bid process. IBs earn fee. Quick deals are made at seller's loss
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and tarulestheday says under IOC 1st quarter-Can ya see the puzzle pieces????
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RE: IOC 1st quarter
I have it from a good source that the package is with PNG now. How long will they take? I don't think anyone has a clue. If we don't have news by the CC they can just say that the bids are being reviewed by the PNG gov/NEC and they have no information to disclose. They are not obligated to talk about details between the bidders, NEC, PNG, etc.
This could go on for two days, two weeks, or two months.
At least we know that Phil is not delaying things....
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PTB could be PT Badak.
No doubt about their credentials asan LNG operator. Anyone confirm this about JKM teaming with a new operating entity?
Pertramina is the state owned O&G Co. of Indonesia. PNG shares an island with Indonesia. Pertramina with JP created the LNG business with the development of Arun and Bontang gas fields in the 70's to feed LNG to JP. Arun is drying up and those export facilities are now being converted to import facilities - Indonesia becoming an LNG importer too.
Check out PT Badak's history.
http://www.badaklng.co.id/about_history.html
"In addition to the refineries which Pertamina owns, Pertamina has two operating companies which manage output from LNG plants.
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PT Arun LNG operates a plant in Arun near Lhokseumawe, Aceh, with 6 trains having a total capacity of 12.5 million tons per annum.
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PT Badak LNG operates a plant in Bontang, East Kalimantan, with 8 trains having a total capacity of 22.5 million tons per annum."
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So Arun dries up and those employees could get new jobs working E/A. How about them apples. And Japan and Korea would get a lower cost for their LNG by owning a portion of E/A and IOC would survive as a seperate entity. Could be.
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[quote='jft310' pid='21964' dateline='1367887521']
New PM urged alliance. JKM teams PTB. Above question consortium.
Three bidders say 'we will not be outbid'. CEO retirement known Nov 12. EOM fanfare was announcement. New CEO choice made, ongoing compensation negotiation. Named post transaction - no before. Big Asian name. Interoil should not exist. Stronger transaction resulting from extending bid rounds. Strongest transaction only chance IOC survive.
I believe we as a group need to be clear as to exactly how this cryptic message is translated and thus what it means. Here is my attempt. Forgive me if some of it seems obvious, but I think everything should be stated clearly, and I welcome anyone to correct me with their interpretations:
New PM urged alliance. JKM teams PTB. O'Neill (Prime Minister) urged an alliance with JKM and PTB. (Or is PM Phil Mulacek?)
Above question consortium. I am not clear on this. Best guess is that their reputation is above question.
Three bidders say 'we will not be outbid'. Three bidders refusing to give up and thus driving price higher.
CEO retirement known Nov 12. EOM fanfare was announcement. All parties new Phil retiring since November. "End of month fanare" was that announcement.
New CEO choice made, ongoing compensation negotiation. Named post transaction - no before. Big Asian name. New CEO has been chosen, though they are still finishing negotiations. He will be announced after the deal announcement, not before, and he is well known/respected in Asia.
Interoil should not exist. Okay, is this "should" in the sense of how things are supposed to be, or "should" in the sense of how things will go? I guess it means that under most versions of a deal, Interoil is bought out and no longer is around as an independent entity.
Stronger transaction resulting from extending bid rounds. Strongest transaction only chance IOC survive. Extending the bid process is producing better (for IOC) bids. A very high bid could save IOC as an entity because it values ($/mcf) a portion of the assets so highly, that no one is willing to pay that high an implied price for IOC as a whole.
Calculated ongoing bid process. IBs earn fee. Quick deals are made at seller's loss Those in charge of the bidding are thinking this through carefully. The investment banks are really earning their fee. Taking their time benefits IOC.
Can we infer anything from this message regarding timing of the deal announcement?
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They get my vote. I know RDS & Total & Exxon have deep pockets but they can't compete against coutries like Japan & south Korea & Indonesia when they team up and can throw in an extra billion or two without blinking an eye. Security of supply for a country's energy vs just making a profit.
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Movie. There are many unknowns. including the who, the when and the how much. Remember the IBers want to get paid and IOC wants a deal and O'Neil NEEDS a deal. Color on the next CC of some type. More time means higher bids .Could happen tonight. or... The risk is being short and betting against IOC , the shorts are gonna get killed. They are only partially hedged and that hedge is expensive as is the borrow rate. Great place to be to watch em twist.
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yahoo's pickboone • 1 minute 23 seconds ago
1users liked this postsusers disliked this posts0Reply
Leaks
As the bidding and selection process draws to a close, the leakage has picked up steam in the past couple of weeks with credible reporters indicating at least 3 top supermajors involvement in the battle for PRL 15. The confirmation of strong interest in IOC's assets and a process involving bidders with an aggregate of nearly $1 trillion in market cap means that time is now on IOC's side. As inciderr so eloquently stated in his last post, "Stronger transaction resulting from extending bid rounds". What aspect of inciderr's post is so surprising? Platts just confirmed XOM, TOT and RDS's strong interest in IOC's project, so it it really surprising that "three bidders say 'we will not be outbid'"? I don't know who inciderr is or where he attains his information, but almost everything in his latest post can essentially be pieced together by all of the leakage that has been emitted to publications like Platts, Upstreamonline and PNGIndustryNews in the past few weeks. Clearly, things are going much better than anyone could have hoped for. The PM's media release on TOT's recent visit and the PNG government's acceptance of TOT's aspirations to get bigger in the country's upstream assets may mean that the deal is ready to be signed and the majors are getting final clearance from PNG before committing billions of dollars to IOC's project.
The time is right - the majors are increasingly focused on low cost wet natural gas for LNG as they move away from expensive CBM in Australia, global markets are soaring, excess cash is plentiful for the supermajors, GCA seems to have confirmed GLJ's higher resource estimates based on what was conveyed in IOC's latest presentation, Petromin's gone, and Duma and O'Neill want a deal that's best for IOC and PNG. With the short case having dwindled down to arbitrary hopes that no further update will be provided on or before the conference call next week, I'm very comfortably long
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You know I have to admit this is so NOT surprising. It's the logical process when you have a tremendous resource in an area of high demand. It would be VERY surprising if things weren't lining up. Too bad about Samare, we would have been here 3 years ago.
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'Tree' pid='21968' datel Wrote:
PTB could be PT Badak.
No doubt about their credentials asan LNG operator. Anyone confirm this about JKM teaming with a new operating entity?
Pertramina is the state owned O&G Co. of Indonesia. PNG shares an island with Indonesia. Pertramina with JP created the LNG business with the development of Arun and Bontang gas fields in the 70's to feed LNG to JP. Arun is drying up and those export facilities are now being converted to import facilities - Indonesia becoming an LNG importer too.
Check out PT Badak's history.
http://www.badaklng.co.id/about_history.html
"In addition to the refineries which Pertamina owns, Pertamina has two operating companies which manage output from LNG plants.
-
PT Arun LNG operates a plant in Arun near Lhokseumawe, Aceh, with 6 trains having a total capacity of 12.5 million tons per annum.
-
PT Badak LNG operates a plant in Bontang, East Kalimantan, with 8 trains having a total capacity of 22.5 million tons per annum."
Looks like incider was on to sumptin with PTB/Pertamina on 5/6/13.
PM can be either Phil or O'Neill and sounds like one of them wed Pertamina and JKM for bid purposes.
New PM urged alliance. JKM teams PTB. Above question consortium.
Three bidders say 'we will not be outbid'. CEO retirement known Nov 12. EOM fanfare was announcement. New CEO choice made, ongoing compensation negotiation. Named post transaction - no before. Big Asian name. Interoil should not exist. Stronger transaction resulting from extending bid rounds. Strongest transaction only chance IOC survive. Calculated ongoing bid process. IBs earn fee. Quick deals are made at seller's loss
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