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Short Term Gyrations
#1

I sure would like to have seen a more definitive announcement this past Friday.  With the PPS back to 85, I have to admit I felt a little down especially after waiting for so long for this day.  Still trying to sort through things (kinda tough though), but here is what I came up with to try and put it in perspective.

1) I would think work activity would have to start moving pretty quickly to get gas to xom within two years.  (drilling extra wells, laying pipe to the cost, building the gas processing plant, etc.)  Just the announcement of each of these events will solidfy that we are moving forward.

2)  PRE is probably ready to start drilling too, so I expect to see some movement there pretty soon, especially now that we are getting some clarity on the xom deal.  I get the feeling we are getting ready to gear up big time for a lot of activity.

3)  Even though I wasn't too excited about the idea of a shelf, "when/if" it happens, with everything that is going to be happening over the next few years, I can see the need to have some extra cash.  "got to have money to make money".  And although they may not have to tap into it, if they do so be it.

4)  Although I don't think there is going to be a hostile takeover, I think that possiblity still exists, however slim for now.   In the back of my mind, I really was hoping for some kind of closure after being in IOC for 7 years, so it looks like I have to be resolute for the next 2-3 years.  Hopefully after this next push by the shorts, our trajectory will be a gradual upward movement over the next 2-3 years.

Optionray

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#2
The reason for the sharp price drop might be daytrading activity:
- sell the partner news
- lower chance for a takeover
Furthermore, the news concided with a lot of option activity. In order to manipulate the call price the share price was manipulated on the expiration day.

In my opinion the cooperation with XOM is good news. Considering the low costprice for the E/A gas, a price will have been negotiated > USD 3/MCF. This means a large upfront cash paymentwill take place in the near future. I hope they will use a large chunk to smoke out a few shorts with a share buyback. They promised to do so in CC Q3/2011.
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