2 Questions

[davidhmtk]

My questions are:

1.  Is the price agreed?  Did mgmt agree on price before they granted the 60 day exclusive?

2.  Phil.  I don't see RDS in the deal or a forced sale of Triceratops to Total.  How does Phil not fit this picture?

[ArtM72]

David -

Since no one responded I'll throw in my 2 cents:

1) There is no "price". Only a range of prices depending upon future outcomes. For example, how much you assign value to putting holes in the ground, or, if IOC got a piece of XOM's LNG plant, what kind of present value the market will assign such an event. Just plan that whatever the deal there will be people who will cast it in the most negative possible light.

2) According to our new interim CEO Phill is going to be around until IOC's LNG deal is done. Would you care to speculate on what that really means other than IOC still wants to share in the spread between wellhead and delivery. Forced sale to Total? Don't get that reference at all.

Anybody sharing the hypothesis that the only way to shut down the Short Machine is to start declaring dividends? Hell, they're still tax advantaged. So what if we have to support the troops, pay down the deficit or fund EPA or whatever?

[j4j]

So you think IOC (and the LNG govt)  will agree to sell xom 4-5 Tcf at a price to be determined in the future.  I think that's highly unlikely given the competitive nature of the bidding.  The pricing has, in my opinion, already been determined.

David - Since no one responded I'll throw in my 2 cents: 1) There is no "price". Only a range of prices depending upon future outcomes. For example, how much you assign value to putting holes in the ground, or, if IOC got a piece of XOM's LNG plant, what kind of present value the market will assign such an event. Just plan that whatever the deal there will be people who will cast it in the most negative possible light. 2) According to our new interim CEO Phill is going to be around until IOC's LNG deal is done. Would you care to speculate on what that really means other than IOC still wants to share in the spread between wellhead and delivery. Forced sale to Total? Don't get that reference at all. Anybody sharing the hypothesis that the only way to shut down the Short Machine is to start declaring dividends? Hell, they're still tax advantaged. So what if we have to support the troops, pay down the deficit or fund EPA or whatever?

[jft310]

I agree the pricing is done. A price per mcf that includes drilling money, pipeline money, a CSP, and a pile of cash. IOC had a material event . Thats not the Prime Minister talking to Parliament. Thats like a term sheet and HOA maybe something material.

[Petro2458]

Agree JFT. This deal is done. I'm shocked that the market has punished IOC the last 2 trading days, but make no mistake (in my opinion), IOC would not come out of the dark on this process if they did not have assurances in place. I'd say that largely - an agreement is in place.

[SamAdams]

Agreed.  Deal is done.

[Movieguy]

To those who are in agreement that "a deal is done," do you put much into the 30 - 60 days of O'Nelill, or do you think an announcement sooner?

[Petro2458]

Sooner...my guess is within month of June. But I have absolutely no sources or inside information. The shorts will wiggle out unscathed.

[jft310]

I hope Exxon says something tomorrow at their AGM. Throw IOC a crumb.

[katytrader]

I hope Exxon says something tomorrow at their AGM. Throw IOC a crumb.

Don´t hold your breath.  Exxon speaks only to God by choice and to everyone else as required by law.

katytrader