06-26-2013, 08:55 AM
Cash flow is moving positive in the last two quarters (click attachment post-stamp below)
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CCUR, by NIA, Lebed
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06-26-2013, 08:58 AM
So the upshot is that it's a decent company, we think it's fully valued at the moment, and the NIA/Lebed promo has run for several months already without getting the stock above $8, which looks like a strong resistance. So we wouldn't get in unless it breaks $8, but then only for a trade.
06-30-2013, 06:20 AM
The barrage of emails is continuing, Jun 28 from Lebed, CCUR as a data analytics stock. You have to give these guys some credit, they're nothing if not persistant. This has been going on on a daily basis since Februari, it's amazing. The stock hasn't done all that much, as it happens:
Wall Street's two hottest Big Data plays Tableau Software (DATA) andSplunk (SPLK) are both currently trading with price/sales ratios of 22, as hundreds of millions of dollars are being invested into private Big Data start-ups! Concurrent (CCUR) just needs a business valuation of 2X sales to reach $17 per share, up 125% from its current share price of $7.57!
This weekend, many wealthy investors will begin to realize that the biggest Big Data play the summer is already public, but completely undiscovered!CCUR is a Big Data Analytics play that holds the largest market share in the cable TV industry, currently tracking the viewing behavior of 35 million pay-TV subscribers across all screens, platform, and network types! CCURwill soar next week from its current extremely undervalued enterprise value/revenue ratio of only 0.69. CCUR pays a HUGE cash dividend yield here of 6.3%, which should be enough by itself to drive CCUR into double digits!
With Accel, the VC fund that invested into Facebook at the ground-floor, investing a total of $200 million into Big Data start-ups - CCUR is a leader of the hottest technology space at the most perfect time! With DATA andSPLK already trading with outrageous price/sales ratios of 22, most investors who discover CCUR are likely to favor it over DATA and SPLK, with CCUR's business valuation currently less than 1X sales and less than 6X operating cash flow, which is unheard of for a company that reported 175% year-over-year EPS growth last quarter!
CCUR is one of the most well established and highly experienced Big Data Analytics companies in the world, with its Big Data solutions already having successfully processed 15 BILLION media transactions for its multi-billion dollar pay-TV operator clients including Time Warner Cable, Cox,Charter, Bright House, Rogers, and J:Com!
CCUR's 3Q results blew away expectations and today is the last trading day of CCUR's 4Q! CCUR's revenues, gross profits, operating income, and net income - have been improving every single quarter-after-after! Based on CCUR's fiscal 3Q2013 non-GAAP EPS of $0.16 on an annualized basis, with a conservative P/E of 20, CCUR deserves to be trading for $12.80 per share!
CCUR's operating margins have been rapidly improving for the past 12 months straight from 1.3% in 4Q2012, to 2.7% in 1Q2013, to 5.3% in 2Q2013, and to 7.3% in 3Q2013! On average, CCUR's operating margins have improved by 2% each quarter! Imagine if CCUR's 4Q revenues stay flat from last quarter at $16.927 million, and CCUR is able to successfully improve operating margins once again by 2% - with the company reporting 4Q2013 operating margins of 9.3%!
CCUR would report 4Q2013 operating income of $1.574 million, which would be up an AMAZING 742% from operating income of $187,000 in 4Q2012! This would likely equal net income of about $1.196 million for GAAP EPS of $0.14 and non-GAAP EPS of $0.19. Based on potential 4Q non-GAAP EPS of $0.19 annualized with a P/E of 20, CCUR could soon be trading for $15.20 per share!
Don't doubt me about CCUR... I guarantee Big Data Stocks will rule the market this summer like dot-com stocks did in 1999/2000, and cloud computing stocks did last year! I'm 99.9% sure that many Lebed.biz members will make more money on CCUR this year than any other stock!
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I am affiliated with a firm that owns 235,093 shares of CCUR that they intend to sell in the open market and can sell at any time. This firm reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time. Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to: http://lebed.biz/disclaimer.
06-30-2013, 06:22 AM
And Jun 29, Lebed again, making a good case for the overvaluation of WWE
A few months ago I was lucky enough to be invited to Wrestlemania to see the Rock defend his WWE championship. I never thought I would compareConcurrent (CCUR) to WWE to prove how undervalued CCUR is... butCCUR will be double digits any day now if you smell what the Rock is cooking!
Unbelievably, CCUR and WWE both pay the exact same annual dividend of $0.48 per share! While CCUR closed yesterday at $7.57 and has a HUGE dividend yield of 6.34%, WWE is up today to $10.29 and currently has a lower yield of 4.66%! Take advantage of CCUR here because it will be trading above WWE very soon!
CCUR has free cash flow of $5.6 million and its annual dividend cost of $4.2 million equals a free cash flow payout percentage of only 75%, meaning CCUR's cash position will still increase by $1.4 million annually even with its HUGE dividend yield of 6.34%!
WWE on the other hand may have operating cash flow of $24.69 million, but WWE also has capital expenditures of $25.518 million to pay for wrestling rings, tables, ladders, chairs, championship belts, etc. Therefore,WWE has negative free cash flow of $828,000 and combined with its annual dividend expenditure of $35.91 million, WWE's cash position is set to decline by $36.74 million per year! WWE only has $132.25 million in cash left on its balance sheet so the way it's going, Vince will run out of corporate cash within 4 years!
CCUR dividend yield is not only a lot higher than WWE, but CCUR can easily afford it while WWE can't afford their dividend!
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I am affiliated with a firm that owns 235,093 shares of CCUR that they intend to sell in the open market and can sell at any time. This firm reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time. Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to: http://lebed.biz/disclaimer.
06-30-2013, 06:24 AM
And NIA, Jun 28
NIA believes the Big Data Boom that is now beginning on Wall Street with recent Big Data IPOs Tableau Software (DATA) and Splunk (SPLK) now both trading for 22X sales, will make Concurrent (CCUR) shareholders very wealthy in the very near-future!CCUR is one of the world's most established Big Data Analytics companies, yet investors on Wall Street that are investing billions into Big Data stocks have yet to discover CCUR! The Big Data technology being adopted by both DATA and SPLK for their platforms is called Hadoop.
Here is a brand new article just out about SPLK using Hadoop:http://www.zdnet.com/splunk-
Here is information on DATA's Hadoop solution: http://www.tableausoftware.
CCUR began using Hadoop even before both DATA and SPLK! It is unbelievable thatCCUR's current enterprise value/revenue ratio at $7.57 is only 0.69 when SPLK andDATA are both currently trading for 22X sales! A business valuation for CCUR of just 2X sales will value it at $17 per share! Read this Network World article below immediately, which talks about CCUR using Hadoop technology and proves thatCCUR is perfectly positioned as a leader in the hottest technology industry of the summer of 2013, Big Data Analytics:
Hadoop wins over enterprise IT, spurs talent crunch
Hadoop enables enterprises to store and process data they previously discarded due to cost, complexity and a lack of tools Network World - Hadoop is coming out of the shadows and into production in IT shops that are drawn to its ability to store, process and analyze extremely large volumes of data. But the relative newness of the open-source platform and a shortage of experienced Hadoop talent pose technical challenges that enterprise IT teams need to address. Hadoop grew out of the work of Doug Cutting and Mike Cafarella, who originally developed it to support Apache Nutch, an open-source search engine. It became an Apache project when Cutting and a team of engineers at Yahoo split the distributed computing code out of the Nutch crawler to create Hadoop. Today Hadoop powers every click at Yahoo, where the Hadoop production environment spans more than 42,000 nodes. That kind of scalability is a sweet spot of Hadoop, which is designed to handle data-intensive distributed applications spanning thousands of nodes and exabytes of data, with a high degree of fault tolerance. Hadoop pioneers in the online world -- including eBay, Facebook, LinkedIn, Netflix and Twitter -- paved the way for companies in other data-intensive industries such as finance, technology, telecom and government. Increasingly, IT shops are finding a place for Hadoop in their data architecture plans. The appeal, in a nutshell, is that Hadoop can enable massively parallel computing on inexpensive commodity servers. Companies can collect more data, retain it longer, and perform analyses that weren't practical in the past because of cost, complexity and a lack of tools. At Concurrent Computer, the decision to use Hadoop was driven in large part by volume. "Scalability was the biggest concern. With a traditional relational database, every time you want to scale or get bigger, you end up paying a premium," says Will Lazzaro, director of engineering at Concurrent, which provides video-on-demand systems and processes billions of records a day related to viewers, content consumption and platform operations. "When it comes to the heavy lifting of getting yesterday's data into our system, or plugging through gigabits-big log files, [Hadoop] is the opportune technology to bring in that data, whether it's structured, semi-structured or even unstructured," Lazzaro says. Playing with big data Hadoop lets enterprises store and process data they previously discarded -- log files, for example -- because it was too hard to process and didn't fit cleanly into traditional database schemas. That's the crux of so-called big data, says Matt Aslett, research manager, data management and analytics, at 451 Research. "It's about doing things with data that was previously thrown away in a way that enables new applications and new projects." In addition to being scalable, Hadoop computing systems are flexible. Hadoop is schema-less, which lets users join and aggregate data from disparate sources for more complex analyses. New nodes can be added as needed, and Hadoop's built-in fault tolerance features allow the system to redirect work to another location if a node is lost. "That schema-less approach, which lets you just store the data and then figure out what you want to do with it, is much more appropriate for unstructured and semi-structured data like Web log data, as well as for data that you know has value for the organization, but you may need to do some experimentation to figure out what that value is," Aslett says. "The cost of doing that in an enterprise data warehouse would just be prohibitive." Return Path, an email certification and reputation monitoring company, started experimenting with Hadoop in 2008, attracted by its enormous storage potential and the ability to easily scale the platform by adding servers. Return Path collects massive amounts of data from ISPs and analyzes it to establish email sender reputations, pinpoint deliverability issues or monitor potentially harmful messages, for instance. Numbers detailing Hadoop In the early days, signing on a new ISP or two could result in a quadrupling of its data. The company found itself in a position where it couldn't keep data as long as it wanted to, nor could it process the data as fast as it wanted to, recalls CTO Andy Sautins. Over the years, he and his team tried a few custom solutions to augment the company's traditional enterprise data warehouse. "These worked fairly well but required much more time and investment in software development than made sense," Sautins says. Hadoop was a game-changer. "It let us change the conversation around what it meant to retain data. It wasn't in terms of weeks, it was years," Sautins says. "Hadoop really helped us be able to weather the storm of retaining and processing more data." Moving out of the shadows Apache Hadoop includes two main subprojects: the Hadoop Distributed File System (HDFS), which provides high-throughput access to application data, and Hadoop MapReduce, which is a software framework for distributed processing of large data sets on compute clusters. It's augmented by a growing group of Apache projects, such as Pig, Hive and Zookeeper, that extend its usability. Hadoop's emergence as an enterprise platform mirrors in many ways the arrival of Linux: Deployments were preceded by shadow IT projects, or skunk works, to test the merits of the software before adopting it on a wider scale. Adoption is growing largely through developers "who've got an ear to ground, figuring out what the other companies are doing," 451 Research's Aslett says. "It's just as we saw Linux move in to enterprises through the IT department and internal projects, when the CEO/CIO didn't necessarily know that it was in there. It's exactly the same with Hadoop," Aslett says. The emergence of vendors with commercial, enterprise-oriented Hadoop distributions -- including support, management tools and configuration assistance -- has further accelerated adoption in the enterprise realm. Key players in this arena are Cloudera, MapR Technologies and Hortonworks, which was spun out of Yahoo last year to develop its own distribution of Hadoop. Concurrent uses the Cloudera CDH platform. "Certainly we could take the open-source version without the Cloudera support, but we found a vendor partner that allows us to expand our solution and leverage their expertise, and really understand how the system works, not just hack it together because it's open source," Lazzaro says. Return Path started working with MapR's commercial distribution last year, a move it made to improve stability and boost performance. "We've been able to see a roughly 2.5- to three-times increase in performance for our workloads," Sautins says. "That means we can either run things twice as fast, which is great, or we can run half the servers, which can also be very compelling." [Also see: "MapR makes Hadoop better, faster, easier"] Along with multiplying options for commercial Hadoop distributions, there are other signs the open source platform is gathering steam. Venture capital is flowing, and new startups with management add-ons and analytic applications are appearing at a dizzying pace. It's also getting increasing attention from traditional data management players -- including IBM, Oracle, Microsoft and EMC -- eager to cash in on the action. On the funding front, 2011 was a huge year for Hadoop vendors: Cloudera landed $40 million in Series D funding; MapR secured $20 million in Series B funding; Datameer, which makes analytics tools built on Hadoop, secured $9.25 million in its second funding round; and in September, $11 million went to DataStax, which offers a commercial version of the Apache Cassandra distributed database management system as well as a new product that couples Cassandra with Hadoop analytics. Another event that portends increasing financial investments in Hadoop-related startups is Accel Partners' launch of a $100 million big data fund earmarked for startups working in areas including data management, storage, data analytics and business intelligence. To help spend the money, Accel lined up a team of fund advisers, and the Hadoop realm is well represented by Cutting, who's now with Cloudera; Gil Ebaz, founder of Hadoop user Factual; Cloudera Chief Scientist Jeff Hammerbacher, who once led the data team at Facebook; and Facebook's Jay Parikh. "There's already a second and third generation of startups being created to take advantage of this macro trend. We're the old guys in the room now, after doing this for three years," says Charles Zedlewski, vice president of product at Cloudera. Choosing workloads, finding talent Hadoop makes it easier to process big data, but it's no cure-all. One common challenge for enterprises is how to choose the most appropriate technology to handle different kinds of data. "I think there's still a lot of confusion about what applications, what workloads, should be on Hadoop versus those that should be in a traditional enterprise data warehouse," Aslett says. "Unfortunately at this point, there aren't any easy answers for that." Another challenge that will only heighten as Hadoop heads for the mainstream is finding people to work with the technology. "There's a lack of skills, and that's definitely a challenge in terms of the continued adoption of Hadoop," Aslett says. Major players including Cloudera, IBM, Hortonworks and MapR are all investing heavily in training programs to teach IT pros how to deploy, configure and manage Hadoop products. "They're well aware that this is actually an issue that could limit the continued adoption of Hadoop at an enterprise level." "If you go out there and try to hire, it's incredibly difficult," acknowledges Omer Trajman, vice president of customer solutions at Cloudera. A more feasible approach is to look internally for candidates ripe to learn Hadoop, he suggests. "The most successful companies aren't necessarily going out and trying to hire aggressively. They have people who have the basic skills required, individuals who have backgrounds in statistics, science, data processing, Java development and analytics," Trajman says. "It's really about looking inward into an organization, finding people who already have familiarity with the business and domain expertise, and teaching them how to use these tools." On the positive side, as awareness of Hadoop grows, the number of IT pros learning Hadoop is growing, too. "Every time I've talked to a recruiter for the last two years, I've asked if they have anybody with Hadoop experience. Usually the answer was 'ha-what?' Increasingly it's maturing, so you are seeing more people in the field," says Concurrent's Lazzaro. Figuring out what kind of person is best to hire can be a challenge in itself. "We originally thought we needed to find a hardcore Java developer," Return Path's Sautins says. But in reality, the talent that's best suited for working with Hadoop isn't necessarily a Java engineer. "It's somebody who can understand what's going on in the cluster, is interested in picking up some of these tools and figuring out how they work together, and can deal with the fact that pretty much everything in the Hadoop ecosystem is not even a 1.0 release yet," Sautins says. "That's a real skill set."
NIA is not an investment advisor and is not making any target prices or financial projections. Never invest based on anything NIA says. Always do your own research and make your own investment decisions. NIA never recommends to buy or sell any stock.
Disclaimer: NIA currently owns 235,093 shares of CCUR. NIA intends to sell its CCURshares in the future and can do so anytime. NIA reserves the right to add to its CCURposition at any time.
This email is not a solicitation or recommendation to buy, sell, or hold securities. Never make investment decisions based on anything NIA says. This email is meant for informational and educational purposes only and does not provide investment advice.
Additional legal disclaimer information: http://inflation.us/
07-03-2013, 11:34 PM
Amazing how many new angles they manage to come up with, here is Lebed yesterday after the close:
After last months Cable Show in Washington DC, Liberty Media's CEO sat down with the CEO of Time Warner Cable (TWC) and spoke about Liberty's 27% owned Charter (CHTR) acquiring TWC, a company more than twice its size. Although TWC exploded 19.5% from $96 to a high yesterday of $114.71, they are apparently not interested in a deal like this because the combined company would have a very large amount of debt.
However, with CHTR likely to make other moves - TWC is now looking to make a move of their own and it is rumored that TWC is interested in acquiring Cablevision (CVC), which has gained 27% over the past 5 days from $15 to $19!
Any major consolidation deals involving TWC will be absolutely HUGE for their #1 technology vendor Concurrent (CCUR). TWC uses CCUR's MediaHawk technology to deliver traditional VOD to its 12 million subscribers, and also uses CCUR's Emmy Award winning "Start Over" and "Look Back" technology, with TWC customers voting "Start Over" as their favorite TWC service. Recently, TWC began using CCUR's CDN technology to deliver VOD and linear TV to the tablets and smartphones of their customers.
After CCUR announced the addition to MediaHawk of VOD delivery to Smart TVs, http://www.ccur.com/home/
At a very minimum, if TWC acquired CVC it will likely mean TWC expanding the use of CCUR's technology to provide traditional VOD, multi-screen services, and Start-Over/Look-Back services, to 3.2 million more customers! However, if TWC gets large enough where it is approaching the size of Comcast - I can picture TWC wanting to acquire CCUR and bring all of its technology platforms, patents, and developers 'in-house'! Of course, they would have to pay a HUGE premium!
What started out as major consolidation among TV stations, is now expanding to cable TV operators, and next it will be cable TV tech vendors with CCUR becoming the #1 target, in my opinion:http://www.tvweek.com/blogs/
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I am affiliated with a firm that owns 235,093 shares of CCUR that they intend to sell in the open market and can sell at any time. This firm reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time. Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to: http://lebed.biz/disclaimer.
07-19-2013, 09:46 AM
Some 20+ raving emails from Lebed and the NIA later (nobody can argue they're not trying..) and we're still not above $8.. Here is the latest one from today:
I am putting my reputation on the line that Concurrent (CCUR) has an excellent chance of leading the NASDAQ in August and finishing the month as the #1 largest one month percentage gainer. In my opinion, worst case scenario... CCUR will finish August as one of the top 10 NASDAQ percentage gainers for the full month!
When CCUR set its current 52-week high of $8.45 on February 6th, it had a market cap of $73.97 million, $24.59 million in cash, and an enterprise value of $49.38 million. CCUR at the time had trailing twelve month free cash flow of $3.834 million. This gave CCUR an enterprise value/free cash flow ratio at $8.45 of 12.88.
When CCUR reported its 3Q results on April 30th, its cash position fell slightly to $22.37 million, but CCUR's trailing free cash flow increased by a shocking 46% to $5.6 million! Yesterday, CCUR closed at $7.80 with a market cap of $68.28 million and an enterprise value of $45.91 million.CCUR at yesterday's close has an enterprise value/free cash flow ratio of only 8.20!
CCUR will soon rally to a very minimum enterprise value/free cash flow ratio of 12.88, matching the ratio that CCUR had at its 52-week high of $8.45. Today with free cash flow of $5.6 million, a ratio of 12.88 would give CCUR an enterprise value of $72.13 million. After adding to itCCUR's $22.37 million in cash, CCUR would have a market cap of $94.5 million, which equals a CCUR share price of $10.80!
I bet there is at least one very wealthy and extremely experienced investor reading this very alert right now and following CCUR closely from the sidelines, trying to decide whether to accumulate now or wait for it to break $8.45. Unfortunately, I believe the overwhelming majority of retail investors are waiting to enter CCUR at $8.45, and there could be such a stampede of buying at $8.45 that some investors who place market orders to purchase shares at $8.45, may end up paying $10.80 for their shares!
Investors with a lot of wealth and experience... are probably starting to realize that they could make the biggest score of their lifetime if they decide to simply accumulate every last CCUR share available between its current price and $8.45. It is possible to accumulate a decent sized position between here and $8.45, but afterwards CCUR will become nearly impossible to accumulate without rapidly driving its share price up to substantially higher levels.
I have no way of knowing exactly how many shares are available for purchase between $8 and $8.45. My guess is... the shares available between $8 and $8.45 will be roughly equal to the shares available between $8.45 and $15. CCUR has been struggling for months to break $8.45... but instead of looking at this as a negative... look at it as a potential opportunity to make a short-term fortune, because it should be smooth sailing to $15 as soon as CCUR breaks $8.45.
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I am affiliated with a firm that owns 235,093 shares of CCUR that they intend to sell in the open market and can sell at any time. This firm reserves the right to add to its CCUR position at any time. Never invest into a stock we discuss unless you can afford to lose your entire investment. For our full disclaimer go to:http://lebed.biz/disclaimer.
07-30-2013, 05:03 AM
It looks like after a bombardment with multiple mails per day for months on end, the stock is finally breaking out of the $8 resistance, although we have to see how it finishes tomorrow. Volume is high, which bodes well, normally..
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