QUESTION 1: Can anyone direct me to some good technical references available from IOC of the planned Wahoo exploration well(s)? I would greatly appreciate it. I've seen a low quality map wtih about 4 or 5 target locations in a powerpoint slide. Anything else? Of course if there was a whole lot more to know, it wouldn't be called exploration and they wouldn't need to drill a well. My prior looks at info I found on E/A and Triceratops months ago were disappointingly lacking in much detail to give me a whole lot of confidence at that time about the resource size or connectivity or productivity. Sort of like solving 2 equations with 6 unknowns. But thankfully, the 3rd party resource analysis as well as all the bidders for the LNG project and the PRE farm-in had data room access, and they tell you all you really need to know which is they like what they see and have evaluated, enough to make large investment commitments. That's all I need. Just the same, I re-read the PRB May 22, 2012 press release on Triceratops #2 well and you get really excited hearing it again from another company. The report of reservoir connectivivity being established between adjacent wells (Bwata #1) 3.5 kilometers apart (or 2.17 miles) is music to the ears. One of their managers reportedly made this statement about IOC's opportunities. This is all old news, but it just makes it very clear. I might be tempted to bet the whole farm on IOC if it weren't for the fact that this is in PNG and I'm not a youngster anymore.
"We got really a very good discovery (speaking of Triceratops) and I think that we'll be ready to monetize that. We understand that there is some sort of a beauty contest now between the majors to acquire those positions and we have a tagalong. So we will be able to make a new rapid cash on that property.. In Papua New Guinea, the opportunities that we have interpreted and mapped are very, very, very large. We are talking about in excess of 5 to 10 tcf every single opportunity there."
I can see in the presentations that IOC are building their opportunity funnel and have rigs positioned idle ready to start some drilling, hopefully very soon. There's a lot of value in coordinating their drilling program to sustain a sort of steady state logistical support distributed over multiple projects to make the well costs as low as possible. I might expect PRE and IOC to be coordinating their rig schedules and use of resources so as to not trip each other up and drive up costs.
QUESTION 2: Anyone looking for clues as to what PRE is doing/saying lately or whether there has been any change in rig status or mobilization of IOCs rigs? Their next conference call is Nov 7. I couldn't find much info pertaining to PNG activities in PRB documents.
QUESTION 3: I wonder how much it costs IOC to keep these (is it 3 rigs?) rigs idle for months and months and at least one with a small crew? You don't want to leave rig equipment on a location idle for months. It can be a huge capital drain. It has to be safeguarded and maintained. Everwhere else it is very expensive, so I assume in PNG too.
QUESTION 4: Is anyone tracking various project delivery statistics vs. time such as project delivery milestones, DPE actions and time required to approve various key submissions, DPE imposed scope changes that were not part of the originaly plan, comments from opposing political interests (or lack of comments; no news being good news), expiration dates, and government behavior vs. the law and contracts agreed. This might become a very good indicator of whether things are getting better or worse with the PNG government and people. Once the LNG project is agreement is announced, I would think activity should really start accelerating on all fronts. Clearly 2013 has been a great year for the company in terms of removing uncertainty. Capping the year with a final signed SPA with Exxon and/or others, will be a nice reward for our patience.
QUESTION 5: I'm too busy to research and do this thoroughly, but perhaps you can help with this. The next plausible big stock price catalyst opportunities (upward or downward) over the next 1-3 years are.....?
(Obviously this list goes on and on, but what would be your top 10?)
(1) SPA announcement with Exxon and/or others
(2) Q3 conference call discussion and Q&A (which might include the above)
(3) Wahoo spud date
(4) Wahoo results announcement
(5) Spudding date of any other well and results announcement of any other well in E/A, Triceratops and/or exploration
(6) Exxon announcements on completion of commissioning of the LNG plant
(7) Exxon ships first LNG from PNG
(8) Pipeline construction from E/A to Exxon pipeline begins and is completed.
(9) IOC announces first production into the pipeline
(10) Any announcements that the above are significantly under/over cost or schedule could have a stock price impact
(11) Any adverse political action could cause a big drop.
Thanks.
