Toro Investment Partners

[admin]

This morning:

We just completed our DD yesterday. 3.5 weeks, six cities, over 30 meetings with channel partners and ecosystem players across the value chain. All confirmatory of our initial conclusions, with several notable positives we had missed previously despite having done quite a bit of work. More to come on this when we get a chance to organize our thoughts. The meeting with the government (MIIT) was most enlightening.

In the comment section of

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1829222-the-muddy-waters-nq-mobile-report-card?v=1385479664&source=tracking_notify

[Mountainbiker]

This morning:

We just completed our DD yesterday. 3.5 weeks, six cities, over 30 meetings with channel partners and ecosystem players across the value chain. All confirmatory of our initial conclusions, with several notable positives we had missed previously despite having done quite a bit of work. More to come on this when we get a chance to organize our thoughts. The meeting with the government (MIIT) was most enlightening.

In the comment section of

http://seekingalpha.com/article/1829222-the-muddy-waters-nq-mobile-report-card?v=1385479664&source=tracking_notify

Patiently waiting for an update with facts not internet based googled research like Goldbaum's, Santos', MWs and few others.

[M1DD]

Hate to burst your bubble but it seems as if that was posted on November 26th, not this morning. Good news regardless.

[admin]

Hmm, you're right, Ive should have checked that but SA software flagged it as a new comment (this is personalized, curious. Could be I haven't looked at the article for some time so it kept on flagging as a new comment whilst it wasn't.

[Mountainbiker]

Hmm, you're right, Ive should have checked that but SA software flagged it as a new comment (this is personalized, curious. Could be I haven't looked at the article for some time so it kept on flagging as a new comment whilst it wasn't.

Yes, it is showing as "new" comment. Trading pattern points to someone shaking the tree and accumulating shares. Or it is just NQ buying back shares on weakness. What do others think??

[kevinh]

The opening looked like someone sold a medium sized block on a market order, with a pretty thin order book. No one knows why.

[Bondguy8]

Kevin-  what are your thoughts on implied vol here?  Vol showing nothing to worry about in Dec (Tradestar pointed this out).  Anything interesting in Jan or March maturities?  I am long the common and have been trading around options.  I still want to express long bias

[AlphaMine]

Kevin-  what are your thoughts on implied vol here?  Vol showing nothing to worry about in Dec (Tradestar pointed this out).  Anything interesting in Jan or March maturities?  I am long the common and have been trading around options.  I still want to express long bias

Like I mentioned off hand before, the trading volume has become anemic as it always does between Thanksgiving and New Years, some who work on Wall Street could speak to the fact it is a ghost town during this period.  That being said I don't think one can draw any conclusion from price action with volume at 25% or less than the avg daily volume, most particularly in smaller cap stocks with smaller floats.  Even medium sized orders move the stock noticably right now.  I used to think he technical traders reliance on volume as a "qualifying" characteristic was just Voo Doo Magic but after trading during this season for the last 7 years I can tell you my personal rule is to only trade super high volume stocks (BAC for example) during the holiday season.  For a few years I was actively trading BIDU and I can tell you it would just act crazy as heck after Novermber then go right back to normal in mid January when volume came back.

I think the opportunity in Jan-Mar for NQ sets up incredibly well with a number of factors pushing the long side.  All of this is predicated on at least a decent special report/audit of course but after new year you will have funds looking hard for performance.  An NQ in the $13-$14 dollar range, with a clean bill of health, it's a no brainer double IMO.  It deserves to trade at least at 70-80X PE based on growth, more if the multiple compression of MoMo stocks lightens up in Jan as I anticipate.  The more I see CNBC talking heads parroting that we have a buble the more I think we'll climb that wall of worry.  As tradestar's well writtn blog points out, I belive if you are looking for the short term gain then the exit point for you should probably be right before the report results are announced, in his case study it appeared to me that stocks routinely sold on the news with nice run ups preceding the report but after it's release date is anounced.  However I wouldn't be surprised at all to see NQ north of $30 in mid-late 2014 unless there is some major unknown negative or the macro-Market environment becomes challenging.

[kevinh]

Kevin-  what are your thoughts on implied vol here?  Vol showing nothing to worry about in Dec (Tradestar pointed this out).  Anything interesting in Jan or March maturities?  I am long the common and have been trading around options.  I still want to express long bias

Remember, implied vol is always backward looking. It doesn't really show anything about how the stock will move unless there are some kind of abnormality, such as imp vol for the 17 strike is much higher than where it theoretically should be when compared to the other strikes.

If you want to express long bias, you can do it in a variety of ways, but I still wouldn't want to go net long calls. The above poster is correct, activity dies down this time of year and picks up after new years so buying options (either calls or puts) faces decay issues. If you want to go long, go buy some shares or sell put spreads.

[roxron9]

Kevin-  what are your thoughts on implied vol here?  Vol showing nothing to worry about in Dec (Tradestar pointed this out).  Anything interesting in Jan or March maturities?  I am long the common and have been trading around options.  I still want to express long bias

Like I mentioned off hand before, the trading volume has become anemic as it always does between Thanksgiving and New Years, some who work on Wall Street could speak to the fact it is a ghost town during this period.  That being said I don't think one can draw any conclusion from price action with volume at 25% or less than the avg daily volume, most particularly in smaller cap stocks with smaller floats.  Even medium sized orders move the stock noticably right now.  I used to think he technical traders reliance on volume as a "qualifying" characteristic was just Voo Doo Magic but after trading during this season for the last 7 years I can tell you my personal rule is to only trade super high volume stocks (BAC for example) during the holiday season.  For a few years I was actively trading BIDU and I can tell you it would just act crazy as heck after Novermber then go right back to normal in mid January when volume came back.

I think the opportunity in Jan-Mar for NQ sets up incredibly well with a number of factors pushing the long side.  All of this is predicated on at least a decent special report/audit of course but after new year you will have funds looking hard for performance.  An NQ in the $13-$14 dollar range, with a clean bill of health, it's a no brainer double IMO.  It deserves to trade at least at 70-80X PE based on growth, more if the multiple compression of MoMo stocks lightens up in Jan as I anticipate.  The more I see CNBC talking heads parroting that we have a buble the more I think we'll climb that wall of worry.  As tradestar's well writtn blog points out, I belive if you are looking for the short term gain then the exit point for you should probably be right before the report results are announced, in his case study it appeared to me that stocks routinely sold on the news with nice run ups preceding the report but after it's release date is anounced.  However I wouldn't be surprised at all to see NQ north of $30 in mid-late 2014 unless there is some major unknown negative or the macro-Market environment becomes challenging.

If it deserves to quote at 70-80 times as you mentioned, which QIHU, VIPS etc do quote at, then your price target of $30 is off by $80-$90 i.e next year EPS=$1.50 = price target of $100-$120. Might sound insane, but this where I think this company should be in 1 year from now.