IOC Drilling - - Probability of Success - - A Poll

[Indoreservoir]

I would also like to point out that Triceratops and E/A are about 20 miles apart and both Bob Cat 1 and Raptor 1 are between those substantial discoveries. Black Bass looks to be about 20 miles South of Wahoo 1. Of course we still need that Damn IPI buyout and Total contract! http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documen..._FINAL.pdf

Putncalls

Attached is the WoodMac map showing most all past wells.

Cheers

[mikesioc]

Wahoo, Raptor and Bobcat are all outside PRL 15, as is Triceratops. The market has given no value to Triceratops and minimal value to E/A. The SPA with Total is for PRL 15. Provided they are successful why would any value be given to Wahoo, Raptor and Bobcat with no agreement in place for those resources? It seems the expectation that these wells will provide a boost to the PPS is putting the cart before the horse unless the idea is to make it potentially more expensive to acquire IOC.

[ltinvest]

Mike, you are usually quite astute. That is like asking why did the market assign any value to E/A before the Total deal? I agree completely, the market is Giving no value to these prospects at this time. Of course, the market is currently significantly undervaluing everything IOC related. But as the Total deal closes and gas at the highest tranche & above is valued at $1.29 or more....there is a clear and distinct route to monetization for newly discovered gas. Hence, it's value to IOC and shareholders is significant. PRL 15 is just a starting point for value creation.

[Putncalls]

Thank you Indo;

So there is data other than 2D seismic.
magnetic
gravity
methane sniffing
cores

???????

[Putncalls]

I would also like to point out that Triceratops and E/A are about 20 miles apart and both Bob Cat 1 and Raptor 1 are between those substantial discoveries. Black Bass looks to be about 20 miles South of Wahoo 1. Of course we still need that Damn IPI buyout and Total contract! http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documen..._FINAL.pdf

Putncalls

Attached is the WoodMac map showing most all past wells.

Cheers

Thanks again!

and BTW : If one saves it as a .jpg they can "photo shop it"

[Indoreservoir]

I would also like to point out that Triceratops and E/A are about 20 miles apart and both Bob Cat 1 and Raptor 1 are between those substantial discoveries. Black Bass looks to be about 20 miles South of Wahoo 1. Of course we still need that Damn IPI buyout and Total contract! http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documen..._FINAL.pdf

Putncalls

Attached is the WoodMac map showing most all past wells.

Cheers

Thanks again!

and BTW : If one saves it as a .jpg they can "photo shop it"

Hope someone photo-shops some additional successes in!

Seriously, it would be good to have Black Bass and Wahoo identified on the map, but can't find one with those.

Attached is a map showing seeps from Kina Petroleum's presentations, fwiw

Cheers

[Palm]

Slide 15 here shows Black Bass:
http://www.interoil.com/iocfiles/documen..._FINAL.pdf

In this presentation IOC showed a good number of their past wells; likely to explain what they are doing and why.

[mikesioc]

Mike, you are usually quite astute. That is like asking why did the market assign any value to E/A before the Total deal? I agree completely, the market is Giving no value to these prospects at this time. Of course, the market is currently significantly undervaluing everything IOC related. But as the Total deal closes and gas at the highest tranche & above is valued at $1.29 or more....there is a clear and distinct route to monetization for newly discovered gas. Hence, it's value to IOC and shareholders is significant. PRL 15 is just a starting point for value creation.

Agreed.  Just making the point that the process of creating value that is reflected in the PPS requires more than drilling results and estimates from IOC. Namely a SPA, recertification, etc. with subsequent payments and/or cash flow.  The value to E/A before the Total deal was based on the story whereas future discoveries and value will be on execution with defined metrics.  Just wondering how the new wells outside PRL 15 will be valued without a deal for those specific resources in place?  A lag between drilling results on new discoveries and PPS upside seems expected.  But with Hession and crew bringing so many parties to the table hopefully not too long.