OSH/PacLNG Deal Details Reported

[admin]

I will put my guess in here.  I see PNG 22.5 %, OSH 19.3%, TOT 32.5 to 35 %, and IOC 23.2 to 25.% .  That NETS all out instead of mixing gross and net.  IMO, from a T/A standpoint, I would expect max correction here 53-54, but more likely 55-56.  If the lower, imo the price won't stay down there very long.  I base this on a normal 3 to 5 day UP field (daily).  IOC topped at 59.78 on fourth day.   Normal correction would be 2nd day reaction low from high, which would be today's low, or possibly modestly lower tomorrow from today's low.  all for what its worth, but the situation looks more neutral to positive than anything.

Who says the stock will go down? We exchanged Civelli for OilSearch, and more importantly, put a number on PRL 15..

[ltinvest]

I will put my guess in here.  I see PNG 22.5 %, OSH 19.3%, TOT 32.5 to 35 %, and IOC 23.2 to 25.% .  That NETS all out instead of mixing gross and net.  IMO, from a T/A standpoint, I would expect max correction here 53-54, but more likely 55-56.  If the lower, imo the price won't stay down there very long.  I base this on a normal 3 to 5 day UP field (daily).  IOC topped at 59.78 on fourth day.   Normal correction would be 2nd day reaction low from high, which would be today's low, or possibly modestly lower tomorrow from today's low.  all for what its worth, but the situation looks more neutral to positive than anything.

Thank you Trans. I believe you and a few others are closest to correct. We do need clarification on the exact numbers. Now, the minority  interest buy out is settled,  which so many had speculated about and the OSH transaction increases the PRL 15 value pre  recertification, the Total deal can close, IOC soon to receive $600 mllion +, drilling will commence, and people aren't even talking about many comments by PNG & OSH wanting to move this project along as fast as possible. Not to mention Duma being sacked. With as much as IOC continues to de risk, I have no earthly idea why we wouldn't be trading far higher?!!!

[Brew Swillis]

$600 million + $900 million in the first half of the year makes me happy. Market should like this, more certainty achieved. As always, time will tell.

[Brew Swillis]

$600 million + $900 million in the first half of the year makes me happy. Market should like this, more certainty achieved. As always, time will tell.

my mistake, we don't receive $900 million, we no longer 'owe' that to the IPI crew.

[Palm]

Correct Brews. So none of our proceeds at closing goes to buy out IPI.

[sageo]

Correct Brews. So none of our proceeds at closing goes to buy out IPI.

Palm- Thanks for your comment. My brain is so dull this am, so would you be kind enough to give an estimate on the ipi's return on their original investment? It appears(if I'm thinking straight) that instead of a  group that is holding us back, we now have a group( partner) that will be eager to go forward! Am I wrong....(again) ?? ! TIA.

[TomCrooz]

Tree If OSH ended up with PAC LNG's share does that mean that IOC only has 7% of E/A?

No.  This OSH % is a gross % as was PAC LNG/IPI, prior to Gov't opt in.  Gov't 22.5% stake will come from the 3 now existing partners, TOT, IOC and OSH.

The way to view this is owership after Gov't buy in.  Stated material stakes should be:

TOT    32.5%

IOC     30%

Gov't   22.5%

This leaves 15% for net for  OSH, or their may be more sell-downs by OSH, IOC or TOT.

IOC will own between roughly 12% and 30%.  That will be determined by further negotiations between IOC and Total.  Total has the right to own UP TO 61%.  If they choose to and IOC agrees, IOC ends with 12% after govt opt in