The Best Development From OSH Deal (so far)

[Movieguy]

It seems based on the knowledgeable consensus of this board that today's deal is mildly positive for Interoil.  However, confusion abounds and analyses vary greatly.  Interoil has yet to add much if any official clarity.  This is a situation ripe for chaos, yet where is the stock at 10:15?  Up about 3%, and this is after a good run-up over the past week.  Where are the Shorts?  Where is the high-volume attack?  Where is the negative article(s) on SeekingAlpha?  Where are the vicious remarks on other message boards that state this deal "proves" that IOC is no good?

Have the Shorts, at least the manipulative ones, left?  If so, this is the best news.

[geologydude]

It seems based on the knowledgeable consensus of this board that today's deal is mildly positive for Interoil.  However, confusion abounds and analyses vary greatly.  Interoil has yet to add much if any official clarity.  This is a situation ripe for chaos, yet where is the stock at 10:15?  Up about 3%, and this is after a good run-up over the past week.  Where are the Shorts?  Where is the high-volume attack?  Where is the negative article(s) on SeekingAlpha?  Where are the vicious remarks on other message boards that state this deal "proves" that IOC is no good?

Have the Shorts, at least the manipulative ones, left?  If so, this is the best news.

It is good news.  Perhaps a floor on the pps has been established with these deals and IOC is no longer a ripe target for shorting.

[Palm]

I think when all details come out between now and closing we will see this is a very good deal

[Bobby]

The probability that the Total deal closes now moves towards 100%.
The teamwork with the new conglomerate basically lets Interoil do what they do best ( drill ) and let the partners take it to market.
No cash flow problems.
Up front cash at closing for drilling and potentially monster payment at re-cert.
Floor on the PPS
Big share price bump at the Total closing and additional smaller bumps with every drilling and re-certification PR.
Government support.
VS can take a nap.

[Getitrt2]

I think when all details come out between now and closing we will see this is a very good deal

I, and I'm sure others, would be very interested in some details or further comments about why you say that.

[ArtM72]

I think when all details come out between now and closing we will see this is a very good deal

I, and I'm sure others, would be very interested in some details or further comments about why you say that.

So would I.  As far as I can see one of the positives will be IOC doesn't have to raise the capital for a 30% share in Gulf LNG anymore because it is only going to be about a 10% ownership.  I wonder what other missions Hession's Trojan horse has on the docket for IOC.  Its first job, to discount and deliver 90% of E/A to Total and OSH has now been accomplished.

[AD123]

What are the chances some of the Elk/Antelope volumes could be used in the XOM PNG LNG plant? The CEO of Oil Search on this mornings OSH conference call was implying that was a possibility. Would be great to get the IOC cash flows started sooner.

[Palm]

I think when all details come out between now and closing we will see this is a very good deal

I, and I'm sure others, would be very interested in some details or further comments about why you say that.

I wish I had time to do that, but I don't

[Getitrt2]

Art, per IOC's news release, "InterOil owns 75.6114% of PRL15 and is in an agreement to sell an interest to Total S.A. The final ownership structure will be agreed with the joint venture participants with InterOil maintaining a material interest in PRL15."

Total stated to begin with in December an intent to bring in another partner for 19.3% gross out of Total's 61.3%, and we now have a new partner for about that amount. There is a strong implication in the above statement that the amount being bought by Total will now be adjusted to account for that, leaving IOC with about 30% still or something close to that. IOC may still even buy out the remaining small IPI amount as well.

[admin]

What are the chances some of the Elk/Antelope volumes could be used in the XOM PNG LNG plant? The CEO of Oil Search on this mornings OSH conference call was implying that was a possibility. Would be great to get the IOC cash flows started sooner.

Yes, good point AD