Timing

[CAC]

[/quote]

CAC, I am NOT "assuming that anything will definitely happen just because IOC management said that 's the direction they were planning to head".  That is a gross misstatement of what I said.

What I have heard you say (repeatedly) is that people who consider the new development with OSH, and then question whether the deal will still go through with TOT are misguided or wrong in doing so.  Nobody knows at this point...including you. I think it's a fair question to analyze.

Also, in case you have not figured it out yet, this is NOT the same company and management we have been following the last five years, which I think is very important.

Wow. Okay. How different is it so far when it comes to bottom line results? The new company told us we were likely to have a deal with XOM...but that did not happen. The new company told us they were finalizing a "transformative deal" and then the execution of that announcement contributed to a massive pps collapse.  The new company told us they would have the IPI bought out a month or two ago...again, they did not accomplish it.  But you unflinchingly believe the deal with TOT will go through (after the curveball from OSH) because IOC said they would still like it to?  This management's track record (delivery-wise) is not all that different...at least so far.

OSH's investment in PRL 15 is a smart move for them for their future growth and profits in either scenario, and they specifically stated that in their news release, which I would suggest everyone read thoroughly.    Also, they will be a "minority partner" in either or both scenarios, and they do not control either.  Yes, that was exactly their intent.

Reasonable minds can differ on this I suppose.  I think the big money is in ownership of a plant. That's what the super majors want, that's what IOC is trying to get, and it is what OSH already has.  A minority partner in that regard is gold.  To rationalize that they don't really want that gas going to the plant they have an ownership interest in seems dubious to me.

I feel sure the greater benefit for IOC and PNG would be a somewhat modified SPA with Total with IOC continuing to have a material interest (25-30%) in PRL 15 and the LNG project; and apparently Hession, who I consider more competent on it than any of us, feels the same, which means something to me if not to you.

Of course it is relevant to me to consider what powerful and influential people like Hession want, but that doesn't mean he will get it (or that he won't be pusuaded to change his mind). There are powerful influential people that may want something different. Being adamantly dismissive of that possibility may not be wise.

[ebster123]

CAC, your last statement is very profound. You are right, this is a very fluid, dynamic and mailable situation. Despite what many here state I personally do not believe IOC derived this ship alone. They may be at the helm but there are others yelling orders (Total, PNG...). As many other people have posted there is big money and big politics here. Were it ends up, not sure, but it will be an interesting ride!

[jdeo1969]

Cac makes some interesting points and I agree with ebsters analysis of those statements. Cac states that there are powerful people who may want something different than what IOC wants. it is hessions job to make sure that of the options set forth before him, he chooses the one that benefits we shareholders and the company going forward. good discussion guys. Many things to think about in this thread, but as long as long as we wait for the total deal to close, IOC is a definite buyout candidate as we sit at 60 IMO. Add a 1 in front of that number and ill gladly be done with the speculation and move on to obsess about something else.

Good luck longs

[mikesioc]

Who is to say that Hession will get to choose? Seems more likely PNG, Total, Exxon and Oil Search will decide what they want and let Hession know. Put a 1 in front and make the 6 a 2 and let's call it a day.

[ebster123]

Mike, I would not settle at test level. Things appear to be moving in a relatively organized and controlled fashion. Let it stay this way fir a while and the pps will improve. I would say if you want yo use the same numbers make it $261 and that would likely be accepted by many bigs but still be a low sell out!!

[ArtM72]

Mike, I would not settle at test level. Things appear to be moving in a relatively organized and controlled fashion. Let it stay this way fir a while and the pps will improve. I would say if you want yo use the same numbers make it $261 and that would likely be accepted by many bigs but still be a low sell out!!

Just the fact that IOC got all of its licenses renewed with NO market reaction can only say the market isn't watching what's going on, much less understanding it.

When the market price goes to $120 people now saying that is their sell price will ask themselves where to put the cash.  They'll look around and many will likely see there is still no better place to stash cash than IOC.  If there is, well, that's likely where they should have their money today.  For one, I will likely sell only when IOC becomes an uncomfortably large part of my portfolio or that string of pearls is found to be costume jewelry.

[ebster123]

Well put Art

[Getitrt2]

CAC, I do not know what you mean by "starting over to some degree", but they definitely are not starting over from scratch. PacLNG is out as called for by the agreement, they have a third partner welcomed by both IOC and Total as intended by Total, and I think some fairly straight-forward modifications to the original SPA can establish basically the agreement they intended to move forward with. I'm not sure how much I care what OSH "thinks", and they cannot control the deal between IOC and Total any more than IOC could control the deal between OSH and PacLNG. Furthermore, moving forward in that manner is what both IOC and Total have since stated as their intent. It probably will now take some time beyond March 31 to close, but I doubt it will be anything like a couple of months, and they were not planning to start drilling in Antelope with the rig from OSH until second quarter anyway. Once they do start that, they plan to move ahead aggressively with both the appraisal wells and the Antelope Deep exploration well.

Doesn't PacLNG own a piece of the other PPLs?

Yes, they do, but they are out of PRL 15;  that's what the SPA with Total called for and what I was referring to.

[Getitrt2]

"That changes if you send 4.6 Tcf" Where the HECK to you get THAT number? 23% of 9TS is 2Ts.

4.6 Tcf is the amount of gas in the 2013 non-binding agreement between IOC and Exxon, the amount Exxon was negotiating for to expand PNG LNG.  23% is the approximate gross ownership portion before government back in being bought by OSH, the amount that happened to be owned by those minority interests, leaving OSH with 17.7% net.  Their ownership interest is not enough to expand even one train, and they cannot simply take their portion and do what they want with it anyway.  That has to be a JV agreed decision under the JVOA, and Total and IOC would essentially control the JV.

[mikesioc]

Anyone ever heard of opportunity costs? There have been countless other places to park cash that provide significantly greater returns than IOC with far less risk. That trend became significantly more costly after IOC transformed itself and promptly lost 50% of its market cap. IOC is going to have to accept whatever PNG, Total, Exxon, and Oil Search decide they want done. While intriguing this story has become a broken record and IOC is now a pawn. Let's just hope those truly in control simply make the logical decision and give IOC their parting gift, $126. Everyone happy now? I know that can be significantly greater by 2020 just by owning Oil Search. IOC could be discarded costume jewelry by then.