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Macquarie report
#21
From Report initial summary:

 Assuming a 7.1tcfe Elk/Antelope resource, we estimate the share price
reflects a ~65% risking for a 2 train, 7mtpa LNG development. Beyond
this, further upside rests on likely project de-risking and drilling success.

 Indeed, with up to 8 important wells to be drilled over the next 15 months
and a planned FID at (what we refer to as) Antelope LNG to follow mid-
2016, this valuation could drift significantly higher over coming months.
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#22

'jft310' pid='45551' datel Wrote:

Wayne addressed this subject of stock appreciation with every person he spoke with he stated. Interoil is where Oil Search was after signing with Exxon . From that point OSH rose 650 percent including several large dilutions . With Hessions sell down we should not need a sell down to finance our portion of the Total LNG build . So Mike wants 100 percent on his money and wants to run away . With LNG cash flows for  2 train LNG plant with 30 percent interest to be $1.5 billion per year that 650 percent drafts other places to put your proceeds. That's the problem with a short term mentality it's taxable and then where to make the balance of the Interoil 550 percent upside.

Best to wait and peel off a few shares to live large in the future. If IOC finds nothing we get a 2 train LNG plant

With all due respect, how often was Wayne correct?  I'd like specific examples.  I would take 120 today, and I have to belive you would as well.  You state a 550 percent upside, but you have been saying that for how many years now?  You may be correct ultimately, but as of today, right now, there is absolutely no reason to believe you.  Do I think the company is worth more than $120/share?  I'm not sure, but I will gladly accept a 100% premium on my investment today.  I think you would be crazy not too as well.  What is so radical about that?

Good luck longs

Jdeo

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#23
Also from Page 1 on "Antelope LNG":

 "As with PNG LNG, Antelope LNG looks set to benefit from attractive fiscal
terms, low onshore development costs and respectable liquids yields.
This drives an attractive estimated IRR of ~24% and a breakeven price of
just U$7.9/mmBtu at Antelope LNG – both extremely competitive for a
greenfield project."

 "While much has been made of recent disharmony between the JV
partners, we do not believe the threat of arbitration will be required or that
the planned Elk/Antelope appraisal program will slip. In part to achieve
this end, we assume TOTAL takes over as upstream and downstream
operator of the integrated Antelope LNG project at FID."
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#24
What's new bottom line:

"Simply a better story

Ultimately, the new look IOC offers a more experienced management team,
more credible joint venture partners, a stronger balance sheet, a clearer route to
market for Elk/Antelope gas and the company’s most material drilling program to
date. Coupled with an attractive valuation, IOC has rarely offered more."
Reply

#25

'jdeo1969' pid='46268' dateline='<a href="tel:1404405 Wrote:

[quote='jft310' pid='45551' dateline='1403653658']

Wayne addressed this subject of stock appreciation with every person he spoke with he stated. Interoil is where Oil Search was after signing with Exxon . From that point OSH rose 650 percent including several large dilutions . With Hessions sell down we should not need a sell down to finance our portion of the Total LNG build . So Mike wants 100 percent on his money and wants to run away . With LNG cash flows for  2 train LNG plant with 30 percent interest to be $1.5 billion per year that 650 percent drafts other places to put your proceeds. That's the problem with a short term mentality it's taxable and then where to make the balance of the Interoil 550 percent upside.

Best to wait and peel off a few shares to live large in the future. If IOC finds nothing we get a 2 train LNG plant

With all due respect, how often was Wayne correct?  I'd like specific examples.  I would take 120 today, and I have to belive you would as well.  You state a 550 percent upside, but you have been saying that for how many years now?  You may be correct ultimately, but as of today, right now, there is absolutely no reason to believe you.  Do I think the company is worth more than $120/share?  I'm not sure, but I will gladly accept a 100% premium on my investment today.  I think you would be crazy not too as well.  What is so radical about that?

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Management answered that question at the AGM . They said why cap the upside?

They believe in this string of pearls theory first stated by Tusker in maybe 2004/5. Worst case we have a Elk/Antelope which gets us 2 train LNG plant . That  should make most happy may not make all happy.

Reply

#26

'jft310' pid='46275' datel Wrote:

'jdeo1969' pid='46268' dateline='<a href="tel:1404405 Wrote:

[quote='jft310' pid='45551' dateline='1403653658']

Wayne addressed this subject of stock appreciation with every person he spoke with he stated. Interoil is where Oil Search was after signing with Exxon . From that point OSH rose 650 percent including several large dilutions . With Hessions sell down we should not need a sell down to finance our portion of the Total LNG build . So Mike wants 100 percent on his money and wants to run away . With LNG cash flows for  2 train LNG plant with 30 percent interest to be $1.5 billion per year that 650 percent drafts other places to put your proceeds. That's the problem with a short term mentality it's taxable and then where to make the balance of the Interoil 550 percent upside.

Best to wait and peel off a few shares to live large in the future. If IOC finds nothing we get a 2 train LNG plant

With all due respect, how often was Wayne correct?  I'd like specific examples.  I would take 120 today, and I have to belive you would as well.  You state a 550 percent upside, but you have been saying that for how many years now?  You may be correct ultimately, but as of today, right now, there is absolutely no reason to believe you.  Do I think the company is worth more than $120/share?  I'm not sure, but I will gladly accept a 100% premium on my investment today.  I think you would be crazy not too as well.  What is so radical about that?

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Management answered that question at the AGM . They said why cap the upside?

They believe in this string of pearls theory first stated by Tusker in maybe 2004/5. Worst case we have a Elk/Antelope which gets us 2 train LNG plant . That  should make most happy may not make all happy.

Let's approach my question this way:  You state that 120 is well below the ultimate payoff.  Ok, we know where you stand.  Now, what in your opinion has to happen for the stock to go to 120/share?

Reply

#27

'jft310' pid='46275' datel Wrote:

'jdeo1969' pid='46268' dateline='<a href="tel:1404405 Wrote:

[quote='jft310' pid='45551' dateline='1403653658']

Wayne addressed this subject of stock appreciation with every person he spoke with he stated. Interoil is where Oil Search was after signing with Exxon . From that point OSH rose 650 percent including several large dilutions . With Hessions sell down we should not need a sell down to finance our portion of the Total LNG build . So Mike wants 100 percent on his money and wants to run away . With LNG cash flows for  2 train LNG plant with 30 percent interest to be $1.5 billion per year that 650 percent drafts other places to put your proceeds. That's the problem with a short term mentality it's taxable and then where to make the balance of the Interoil 550 percent upside.

Best to wait and peel off a few shares to live large in the future. If IOC finds nothing we get a 2 train LNG plant

With all due respect, how often was Wayne correct?  I'd like specific examples.  I would take 120 today, and I have to belive you would as well.  You state a 550 percent upside, but you have been saying that for how many years now?  You may be correct ultimately, but as of today, right now, there is absolutely no reason to believe you.  Do I think the company is worth more than $120/share?  I'm not sure, but I will gladly accept a 100% premium on my investment today.  I think you would be crazy not too as well.  What is so radical about that?

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Management answered that question at the AGM . They said why cap the upside?

They believe in this string of pearls theory first stated by Tusker in maybe 2004/5. Worst case we have a Elk/Antelope which gets us 2 train LNG plant . That  should make most happy may not make all happy.

Let's approach my question this way:  You state that 120 is well below the ultimate payoff.  Ok, we know where you stand.  Now, what in your opinion has to happen for the stock to go to 120/share?

Reply

#28
A reverse 1for2 split.
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#29

'jdeo1969' pid='46277' dateline='<a href="tel:1404406 Wrote:

'jft310' pid='46275' dateline='<a href="tel:1404406 Wrote:

[quote='jdeo1969' pid='46268' dateline='1404405526']

[quote='jft310' pid='45551' dateline='1403653658']

Wayne addressed this subject of stock appreciation with every person he spoke with he stated. Interoil is where Oil Search was after signing with Exxon . From that point OSH rose 650 percent including several large dilutions . With Hessions sell down we should not need a sell down to finance our portion of the Total LNG build . So Mike wants 100 percent on his money and wants to run away . With LNG cash flows for  2 train LNG plant with 30 percent interest to be $1.5 billion per year that 650 percent drafts other places to put your proceeds. That's the problem with a short term mentality it's taxable and then where to make the balance of the Interoil 550 percent upside.

Best to wait and peel off a few shares to live large in the future. If IOC finds nothing we get a 2 train LNG plant

With all due respect, how often was Wayne correct?  I'd like specific examples.  I would take 120 today, and I have to belive you would as well.  You state a 550 percent upside, but you have been saying that for how many years now?  You may be correct ultimately, but as of today, right now, there is absolutely no reason to believe you.  Do I think the company is worth more than $120/share?  I'm not sure, but I will gladly accept a 100% premium on my investment today.  I think you would be crazy not too as well.  What is so radical about that?

Good luck longs

Jdeo

Management answered that question at the AGM . They said why cap the upside?

They believe in this string of pearls theory first stated by Tusker in maybe 2004/5. Worst case we have a Elk/Antelope which gets us 2 train LNG plant . That  should make most happy may not make all happy.

Let's approach my question this way:  You state that 120 is well below the ultimate payoff.  Ok, we know where you stand.  Now, what in your opinion has to happen for the stock to go to 120/share?

JDEO imagine a ladder with steps . As Interoil climbs the steps the stock price will rise

some of the largest steps are

drilling results, both exploration and antelope 4 and 5 results.

recertification number and payment

FID

Offtake contracts

LNG plant start construction

LNG plant 50 percent completion

LNG plant opening.

Each will derisk the stock price value to net asset value.

I can't say the value of each step but as more steps are reached the de risking increases.

Look at the Oil Search stock price chart as a guide. Smoothing out the dips for share issuance it's a upward sloping line. Interoil can sell down asset finds for their financing vs Oil Search . Huge difference.

The shorts will find more fertile ground .

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#30

'Nolan' pid='46279' dateline='<a href="tel:1404407 Wrote:A reverse 1for2 split.

nolan- this is an asset find story which when monetized will have rewards. If you are not willing to wait for proper monetization then find more fertile ground. The stock price will more than take care of itself with monetization. I certainly agree Phil's plans costs us 3 years on monetization my take but what does that have to do with a look forward. If you have positive suggestions what are they?? How does Whinning help?

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